This is the third and final paper in a three-part series exploring the decision-making process in China.
The Bank of Canada’s fight against the next Great Recession began on March 4, when Governor Stephen Poloz and his five deputies cut the benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point.
China has actively supported the local semiconductor industry in the past decade, but it has proved that its ambition is far greater than its strength-in addition to expecting to lead the world in AI technology in 2030, as well as its blueprint for semiconductor production in its “Made in China 2025” plan.
George Leopold – EE Times
Since the first caveman sharpened a stone into a tool, economics has involved disruption. New technologies create innovative ways of doing business and displace old ones. The Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter coined a phrase for this: “creative destruction.” The term encompasses both the benign and harmful dimensions of economic disruption: when the forest burns, many trees are destroyed, but new growth is enabled. The key to progress is ensuring that there are more winners than losers from disruptive change and that the latter benefit from the broader gains in prosperity.
This paper analyzes international perspectives on space weapons and the weaponization of space, focusing relatively more on countries other than the United States, Russia, and China. It examines how existing international agreements define and limit space weapons and weapons-related activities, proposed international agreements and the reactions of other nations to these proposals, and current developments that relate to space weapons and the weaponization of space.
The Covid-19 pandemic is reshaping geopolitics. Escalating tensions between the United States and China are the clearest immediate-term outcome. But what about the long-term impact?
CSIS Risk and Foresight Group Director Sam Brannen asked four of his International Security Program colleagues to take the long view on how Covid-19 could affect geopolitics out to 2025-2030 and beyond.
- Security partners operate on the front lines of hybrid warfare environments.
- The United States and its allies lack a coherent approach for integrating partners into civilian-led, competitive strategies against rivals who leverage hybrid warfare tools.
- A principled approach to selecting and investing in partners, rather than casting them as proxies, will increase U.S. and allied strategic action and operational effectiveness.
This is an important year for the global HIV response. The first milestones toward the Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) Fast Track goals toward controlling the global epidemic come due at the end of 2020.
Billionaire investor Leon “Lee” Cooperman, chairman and CEO of Omega Advisors, joins the podcast to discuss the future of the stock market, investing, capitalism, the U.S. economy, future of work, and decoupling with China.
The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare conducts an income redistribution survey every three years to verify the effect of income redistribution through tax and social security systems. In Column No. 15, the Gini coefficient and income redistribution effect based on the 2014 survey was explained. As the government have now announced the results of the 2017 survey, I would like to revisit the issue of disparity in Japan.
Travel balance is one of the items in the balance of payments. It is calculated by subtracting the amount spent by Japanese tourists abroad from the amount spent by foreigners visiting Japan.
The lack of beds for patients infected with COVID-19 has become a major problem. Looking at the historical trend of the number of beds for infectious diseases, there is a surprising finding.
The U.S. Marines deployed in Japan play a critical role.
China’s cyber espionage activitiesrepresent a significant threat to the United States military and the safety and security of this nation. Defense contractors, research institutes, and universities are failing to adequately secure their computer networks, allowing China to steal research and development pertaining to some of America’s most important military technology. This wholesale theft represents losses to the United States in the range of hundreds of billions of dollars per year.
Horizontal nuclear proliferation presents what is sometimes referred to as the “Nth country problem,” or identifying which state could be next to acquire nuclear weapons. Nuclear fuel cycle technologies can contribute to both nuclear power generation and weapons development.
Author: Meijun Qian, ANU
Author: Anthony V Rinna, Sino-NK
Author: Nobuaki Hamaguchi, Kobe University
Author: Phuong Pham, Queen Mary University of London
Economy Minister Martín Guzmán discusses the state of Argentina’s economy, how the coronavirus has affected it, and the challenges it confronts as it works to restructure its external debt.
Minister of Economy, Argentine Republic
Chairman Emeritus and Former U.S. Treasury Secretary, Council on Foreign Relations
In an attempt to create jobs and stimulate economic growth after the COVID-19 pandemic subsides, President Donald J. Trump and Congressional Democrats have discussed a multitrillion-dollar infrastructure plan. Speakers discuss whether an infrastructure plan could generate the necessary employment opportunities and what other measures the U.S. government could take to promote an effective economic recovery.
Adjunct Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations
Commissioner, New Jersey Department of Transportation
Partner, McKinsey & Company
Host, Velshi; Business Correspondent, NBC
Andrew Revkin, director of the initiative on communication and sustainability at Columbia University’s Earth Institute, discusses best practices for science-based reporting and countering misinformation on COVID-19, drawing upon his climate change reporting. Carla Anne Robbins, adjunct senior fellow at CFR and former deputy editorial page editor at the New York Times, hosts the webinar.
Andrew Revkin, Director, Initiative on Communication and Sustainability, Columbia University Earth Institute
Carla Anne Robbins, Adjunct Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations
Irina A. Faskianos, Vice President, National Program and Outreach, Council on Foreign Relations
Stewart M. Patrick, CFR’s James H. Binger senior fellow in global governance and director of the International Institutions and Global Governance program, discusses with James M. Lindsay how the World Health Organization works.
The United States should respond to the COVID-19 reordering moment and stop deterioration in the balance of power with China, bolster relations with India and Europe, and reform the way it deals with allies and partners.
Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy
Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
Analysts are tracking false rumours about COVID-19 in hopes of curbing their spread
The COVID-19 crisis is having a significant impact on Jamaica. The pandemic, which is severely hurting tourism and remittances, reached the Caribbean country just a few months after the successful conclusion of its economic reform program—which was supported by a $1.66 billion Stand-By Arrangement from the IMF.
I thank Minister Annamuhammedov and Ms. Elena Panova for their kind invitation to participate in this conference. It is not accidental that this conference is taking place in Ashgabat. Turkmenistan was one of the first countries to have formally accepted all Sustainable Development Goals developed by the United Nations and has been integrating these goals into its national plans for socio-economic development.
Tao Zhang, Deputy Managing Director, IMF
Already among the most remote countries on earth, Pacific island states saw their vital economic links weakened in recent months with the evaporation of tourism, severe disruptions to international trade, and a reduction in remittances. For these countries, the COVID-19 pandemic may cut deeper than even some of the worst cyclones from years past.
The European Union remains the centre of gravity of the economic and political strategies to end the current economic crisis. The consequences of the pandemic on the German economy and on mobility within the Union, along with difficulties of poor countries around the continent are the three real risks that could plunge the European Union into an existential crisis.
Autor:Emmanuel Comte, Senior Research Fellow, CIDOB
Las alianzas público-privadas (APP) pueden ser definidas de manera general como acuerdos entre los actores públicos y privados para el suministro de bienes, servicios y/o infraestructuras o también como una “herramienta de ensamble” capaz de aunar los intereses de distintos sectores en un único objetivo tendiente a una acción colectiva que ponga en marcha toda la capacidad del país a fin de consumar la transformación económica.
Autor:Juan Triana Cordoví
En las condiciones en que rige un modelo de acumulación global, la inserción externa y el crecimiento son dos aspectos inter-vinculados del desarrollo, el presente trabajo tiene por objetivo describir y revelar cuantitativamente las relaciones para el caso de la economía cubana, y avanzar algunas recomendaciones para los diseños de estrategias y políticas económicas para este caso en el cual coinciden un conjunto de factores de naturaleza estructural y coyuntural que dificultan la inserción externa y el crecimiento económico. Se ha estructurado el artículo en dos epígrafes: uno primero dedicado a recapitular las condicionantes que plantea la globalización para la inserción externa de cualquier país o territorio; y el segundo centrado en las características del comercio exterior, las dinámicas de las exportaciones y las importaciones en su relación con el crecimiento para el caso específico de la economía cubana y en la modelación econométrica derivada. Para finalizar el ensayo se puntualizan un conjunto de recomendaciones que se proponen a debate. El tema resulta pertinente desde la teoría y la práctica para cualquier país en el actual contexto global, pero para el caso de Cuba es decisivo por las dificultades adicionales con que enfrenta la inserción internacional bajo los efectos del bloqueo norteamericano, especialmente recrudecido en los últimos años y que impide y/ o dificulta cualquier operación internacional destinada a satisfacer sus necesidades de cualquier naturaleza.
Desde el punto de vista interno se destaca la necesidad de instrumentar políticas activas, expeditas y descentralizadas que permitan sortear exitosamente el complejo escenario que se describe.
Autor:Lázaro Peña Castellanos y Carola Salas Couce
One of the unavoidable consequences of the current pandemic will be the repatriation of part of the value chains of international European and North American companies home or closer to home. How important this turns out to be and what sectors it will impact most is yet not clear, but public opinion will no longer allow certain key necessities to be sourced essentially in China. As European leaders consider which products need to be manufactured closer to home, they could do worse than spare a thought for Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia.
Autor:Francis Ghilès, Associate Senior Researcher, CIDOB
As Coronavirus (and the disease caused by it, COVID-19) spreads throughout the globe, reported cases of racial slurs and violent attacks have risen dramatically. Some victims have been harassed verbally or physically on the streets or in public transports; others were prohibited from going to schools or workplaces. Many victims, wearing face masks or not, shared their experiences of being stigmatized and discriminated against because the perpetrators associated this disease with race, or a certain group of people who are perceived as carriers of the virus. Since this disease started in Wuhan China, Chinese people bear the brunt of prejudice and racism, as well as other East Asians.
The COVID-19 pandemic is a game-changer for asylum seekers seeking to come to, or who are already in the European Union (EU) – certainly so in the short-term but most likely in the medium- to long term as well. It is becoming increasingly difficult for asylum seekers to get access to rights and opportunities. However, this is not a claim holding equal value for all EU member states. Portugal, for instance, has provided asylum seekers (and other migrants) with temporary access to full citizenship rights. This temporary status allows them to use the country’s healthcare facilities similarly to Portuguese citizens.
Like so many other researchers sitting at home, watching the news about COVID-19, I have been impressed at how virologists, epidemiologists and other medical experts have caught the ears of national policymakers, business leaders and the general public. Suddenly, scientific facts and evidence bask in the trust of public opinion and fake news is once again ‘fake’ in the real sense of the word: unreliable, not to be trusted by anyone. Something climate experts have been dreaming of for decades, not to mention my own, down-to-earth economic pleas to public authorities to invest more in public research.
“Do you see over yonder, friend Sancho, thirty or forty hulking giants? I intend to do battle with them and slay them. With their spoils we shall begin to be rich for this is a righteous war and the removal of so foul a brood from off the face of the earth is a service God will bless”. The passage is from Miguel de Cervantes’ timeless masterpiece, Don Quixote de la Mancha. In this part of the novel, Don Quixote takes windmills to be towering giants and attacks them, after doing so he realizes that they were nothing more than windmills, but is unrelentingly stubborn, insisting they were turned back into windmills by his magician archnemesis Friston. Some 400 years later, some people have started tilting at giants again but this time the giants are in the form of 5G radio towers.
Long gone are the days when Eastern Europe was Russia’s exclusive backyard. The last decade has witnessed the rapid expansion of political and economic ties between powers from the Middle East and Asia and East European states.
The Covid-19 pandemic appears to be not just a test for healthcare systems around the world, but an international contest for which country has the best political system.
The term ‘smart city’ relates to the use of technology to improve urban infrastructure and services, from energy grids to systems for transport/mobility and parking, and includes water treatment, waste management and security aspects, among others. China has made the smart city part of its national development strategy: the concept was endorsed by President Xi Jinping at a national urbanisation convention in 2015, and later explicitly mentioned in the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020), adopted in March 2016.
The Arctic is again becoming a region of strategic focus. For three decades after the Cold War, when the region was at the centre of great power competition, successful cooperation transformed the Arctic into a ‘low tension’ zone and consolidated the perception of ‘Arctic exceptionalism’, the sense that the region is uniquely cooperative and immune from broader geopolitical tensions. For the eight Arctic states that comprise the Arctic Council – Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Russia and the US – there has been hope that regional dynamics can be insulated from global geopolitical shifts.
People are what inspire my colleagues to do what they do. That may seem obvious, but I’m not sure it is. Many – including members of my own family – think that the World Bank Group is a complex, technical institution focused on balance sheets and exchange rates. And in part it is. But ask us about our mission, about our common goal, and you’ll hear about people.
- Data plays a critical role for successful implementation of federalism and acceleration of development progress in Nepal by improving fiscal relations and evidence-based decisions among the three tiers of governments.
- In mid-2019, the World Bank in partnership with the Department for International Development Nepal, launched the Nepal Data Literacy Program. The program aims to sustainably transfer data literacy skills to professionals in Nepal who can proactively engage in evidence-based policy making, increase data literacy of Nepalis and support federalism in the country.
- To power the data movement, the World Bank in collaboration with local partners has developed an open source Data Literacy Portal with resources and toolkits which can be customized and used in diverse contexts within and outside of Nepal to help users develop their data skills.
February 21, 2020 was a day of celebration in Koné Béri, Niger. People gathered in the village for a ceremony 14 years in the making. Some had doubted that a “crazy idea to sell the air,” as local communities referred to the sale of carbon credits generated from their agro-forestry plantations, would ever come to fruition. But on this day, leaders representing 26 rural communities accepted the first carbon credit payment ever made to Niger for reducing emissions.
A productivity-driven development model–combining innovation with balanced development and allocation of private, public, human and natural capital–will be key for Vietnam to achieve its goal of becoming a high-income economy by 2045, a new World Bank report suggests.
Lack of foundational identification prevents almost one billion people worldwide from accessing social protection, particularly in a time of crisis.
If you take care of the land, it will take care of you, says Tsefaye Kidane, a 40-year-old coffee farmer from the Kafa Biosphere Reserve, a protected area in southwest Ethiopia that is also regarded as the birthplace of wild Arabica coffee.
The people of Syria entered their tenth year of conflict in March, only to be confronted with another looming threat: the COVID-19 pandemic. The disease compounds an already devastating crisis that has left 11 million people in need of humanitarian assistance.
Opinion polls from all over the world show that most of the public is satisfied with how its leaders have handled the medical aspects of the coronavirus crisis, including the use of location and tracking methods at the price of infringing on privacy. This contrasts to widespread dissatisfaction over the handling of the economic aspects of the crisis and greater concern over its economic than its health implications.
The Islamic Revolution in Iran, which brought Islamists to power for the first time in modern history, pitted the global left—perhaps best personified by Michel Foucault—against the global right. To this day, the global left’s advocacy for Islamism continues to guide the West’s general approach toward the Middle East.
Author: C Veeramani, IGIDR
Author: Abidah B Setyowati, ANU
The ILO’s latest analysis of the labour market impact of COVID-19 exposes the devastating and disproportionate effect on young workers, and analyses measures being taken to create a safe return to work environment
Dorothea Hoehtker, Senior Researcher, ILO Research Department
Carla Henry, Senior Technical Specialist, ILO Research Department
Europe and Japan have an interest in developing defence capabilities and research but there are challenges and cooperation is conditioned by a shifting geopolitical landscape.
Michito Tsuruoka & Daniel Fiott
EU and Spanish foreign policy were undergoing a transition from multilateralism to strategic autonomy to adapt to an increasingly competitive geopolitical environment. However, COVID-19 raises questions about whether international politics will be characterised by a renewal of multilateralism or an aggravation of great power competition.
Félix Arteaga & Luis Simón
A local coronavirus response functioned as a crucial test of a new data network concept intended to deter Russia and China.
BY PATRICK TUCKER
This comes as senior national security officials are reportedly discussing whether to conduct a test.
BY MARCUS WEISGERBER
We’ve got a ways to go,’ says official in charge of re-opening, but local commanders given authority to decide.
BY KATIE BO WILLIAMS
The pandemic exacerbates worsen existing food crises, undermining stability.
Look to Europe for lessons.
BY THOMAS WRIGHT
Authors: Ayush Banerjee and Dhritiman Banerjee
Authors: Yao Zhe and Wu Yixiu
- COVID-19 has led to an increase in racism and xenophobia directed at those of Asian descent.
- Here, a professor of Vietnamese heritage working in Bogotá recounts being on the receiving end of two such incidents.
Quyen Nguyen, Founder and Director, SummitEd Consulting
- The potential long-term consequences the pandemic could have for us are starting to reveal themselves.
- Left unchecked, there is a real risk that inequalities and social deprivation will increase.
- We have a chance, however, to build a better world – and we must take it.
John Scott, Head of Sustainability Risk, Zurich Insurance Group
- A new report offers statistical insights into the changes COVID-19 has wrought on the world.
- The pandemic poses its own problems for statisticians, however.
- A global effort is needed to support statisticians – especially those in low-income countries, who may be struggling.
Just as Boris Johnson’s election victory had seemed to bring welcome clarity, Coronavirus swept into muddy the waters again. But it also illustrated the risks for the UK of being a medium-sized country alone, writes Valdai Club expert Mary Dejevsky. The EU’s collective response to the virus may have left much to be desired, though there has been more medical and economic cooperation than it often appeared. But the response of the US hardly offered any attractive alternative model.
The grave consequences of the pandemic for Africa provide more opportunities to expand Russia’s presence and spheres of influence on the continent by allowing it to go beyond the production and exports of minerals and raw materials to the soft security sphere and greater opportunities for Russia’s soft power, writes Natalia Piskunova, Associate Professor at Lomonosov Moscow State University, World Politics Department.
Author: Leif-Eric Easley, Ewha Womans University
Author: Ngeow Chow Bing, University of Malaya
The coronavirus crisis has exposed Arab and Islamic notions of fraternity, mutual commitment, and solidarity as hollow rhetorical slogans. Each country in the region is focused entirely on its own efforts to survive economically, socially, and politically as the pandemic continues to wreak havoc.
The US Department of Defense has been working with American companies for the past year on a project to develop a prototype for a portable nuclear microreactor, a device intended for use by the US military in security scenarios around the world. The US Department of Energy is also involved in the project, with the aim of providing electricity to remote sites that are difficult to link to the grid. The project thus represents a symbiosis between military and civilian technological development.
The Franco-German proposal for a COVID-19 recovery fund is not quite the “Hamiltonian moment” that some have claimed. But, by reshaping the debate on risk mutualization and the benefits of transfers, it could set the stage for one.
Lucrezia Reichlin, a former director of research at the European Central Bank, is Professor of Economics at the London Business School
South Korea has rightly received international acclaim for its COVID-19 response. It should now apply the same ambition and acumen to lay the groundwork for a more productive, sustainable, and inclusive economy.
Lee Jong-Wha, Professor of Economics and Director of the Asiatic Research Institute at Korea University, was a senior adviser for international economic affairs to former President Lee Myung-bak of South Korea. His most recent book, co-authored with Harvard’s Robert J. Barro, is Education Matters: Global Schooling Gains from the 19th to the 21st Century
People around the world are going to court to challenge long-standing injustices made visible by the COVID-19 pandemic. How judges respond will indicate whether the current reconsideration of neoliberal economics is likely to be a temporary blip or part of a more enduring transformation of law and policymaking.
Author: Edwin M Truman, Peterson Institution for International Economics
Author: Murray Hiebert, Bower Group Asia
The coronavirus crisis has shaken many European Jewish communities to the core. As the EU member states try to return to normal in the aftermath of the most severe threat to the lives of their citizens since WWII, the continent’s Jewish communities struggle to come to terms with the devastating events of the past months.
Former IDF chief of staff Benny Gantz officially took up his position as defense minister a week ago. His first challenges will be to wage a bitter struggle for a defense budget and promote a cautious approach to Donald Trump’s peace plan.
- As people work from home to stop the spread of coronavirus, they become more vulnerable to digital attacks and scams.
- Hackers may try to exploit your stress response to the COVID-19 crisis.
- The most powerful defence is your own behaviour and critical thinking. Slowing down and activating your rational mind can help ward off threats.
- World Health Organization held a media briefing on Africa Day, 25 May, to update the public on the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.
- Clinical trial of hydroxycholoroquine suspended after Lancet study finds drug causes ‘higher mortality rate’ among COVID-19 patients.
- Lower number of cases in sub-Saharian Africa attributed to Ebola experience and speedy response by African Union.
By announcing a new security law for Hong Kong, China has effectively already brought an end to the era of “one country, two systems.” And that means the worst is yet to come, as Chinese leaders’ efforts to enforce full political control over the city meet fierce local resistance.
Minxin Pei is Professor of Government at Claremont McKenna College and a non-resident senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States
Nigeria is failing those of its people who struggle with mental-health issues – no small share of the population. But with improved legislation, education, and support systems, the country can turn the tide on mental health, laying the groundwork for a healthier, happier, and more productive future.
Ifeanyi M. Nsofor, a medical doctor and Senior Atlantic Fellow for Health Equity at George Washington University, is CEO of EpiAFRIC and Director of Policy and Advocacy at Nigeria Health Watch – Bell Ihua, a social researcher and survey expert, is Executive Director of the Africa Polling Institute (API)
By issuing perpetual bonds – or “Consols,” as they have been called historically – the EU can address both the pandemic and climate change. Such bonds represent a credible alternative to raising the EU budget and would provide relief funds that could be targeted at member states hardest hit by the public-health crisis.
With legislation that would force all Chinese firms listed on US stock exchanges to submit to the same regulatory oversight as American firms, US policymakers are calling China’s bluff. Far from confirming fears of a widespread delisting of Chinese firms, the law will likely improve the investment environment.
Shang-Jin Wei, a former chief economist at the Asian Development Bank, is Professor of Finance and Economics at Columbia Business School and Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs
Progress in synthetic biology and genetic engineering promise to bring advancements in human health sciences by curing disease, augmenting human capabilities, and even reversing aging. At the same time, such technology could be used to unleash novel diseases and biological agents which could pose global catastrophic and existential risks to life on Earth. George Church, a titan of synthetic biology, joins us on this episode of the FLI Podcast to discuss the benefits and risks of our growing knowledge of synthetic biology, its role in the future of life, and what we can do to make sure it remains beneficial. Will our wisdom keep pace with our expanding capabilities?
This webinar highlights geographical regions in which climate change is posing a security threat and will explore what is being done to alleviate these risks.
Kate Guy, Senior Research Fellow, Center for Climate and Security (CCS)
Adriana Erthal Abdenur, Policy Expert and Coordinator, Peace and Security Division, Igarapé Institute
Neil Morisetti, Associate Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme, Chatham House; UK Foreign Secretary‘s Special Representative for Climate Change (2013)
Chair: Tim Benton, Research Director, Emerging Risks, and Director, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme, Chatham House
Speakers discuss the major events that shaped Ukraine’s foreign policy in the first year of Zelenskyy’s presidency.
Vasyl Bodnar, Deputy Foreign Minister, Ukraine
Kostiantyn Yelisieiev, Deputy Head of Presidential Administration, Ukraine (2015-2019)
Alyona Getmanchuk, Director, New Europe Center
Chair: Kataryna Wolczuk, Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme
Abebe Aemro Selassie discusses the levers available to support African countries as they navigate the crisis, expectations of African governments and development partners, and prospects ahead.
Abebe Aemro Selassie, Director, African Department, International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Chair: Elizabeth Donnelly, Deputy Director, Africa Programme, Chatham House
Tim Benton and Richard Kock speak to Gitika Bhardwaj about how human activities are making outbreaks, like the coronavirus, more likely.
Professor Tim Benton, Dr Richard Anthony Kock, Gitika Bhardwaj
If it is the case that only a crisis will stimulate change in India, then now would be the time.
Dr Gareth Price
The government revels in its status as an outlier among East African responses to coronavirus, but its actions to restrict freedom of expression, opposition, and access to information continue to proliferate.
The Minsk agreements rest on two irreconcilable interpretations of Ukraine’s sovereignty: is Ukraine sovereign, as Ukrainians insist, or should its sovereignty be limited, as Russia demands? Instead of trying to resolve an unresolvable contradiction, Western policymakers should acknowledge the starkness of the Minsk conundrum.
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought the global economy and much of regular daily life to a standstill, causing governments to wrestle with how best to respond to the public health crisis. In a virtual edition of CIGI’s Community Event series, this presentation will discuss how think tanks — such as the Centre for International Governance Innovation — offer guidance on proactive policy responses to the global crisis including the current epidemic. It will be led by Aaron Shull, Managing Director and General Counsel at CIGI who will provide an overview of the pressing policy concerns and the role of think tanks and will conclude with a moderated Q&A led by CIGI’s Communications Advisor, Kristy Smith.
The impact of COVID-19 on the global economy was swift and substantial. Unemployment numbers are reaching depression-era levels and nations are clamouring to unveil stability packages intended to lessen the economic impact. Will these measures work to restore the economic status quo, or is this an opportunity to rethink our economic structures?
As shown in Figure 1, the number of artificial dialysis patients in Japan increased from 103,296 in 1990 to 339,841 in 2018.
As shown in Column No. 76, the number of foreign visitors in Japan increased from 6.2 million in 2011 to 28.7 million in 2017 as a result of the government’s measures to attract foreign tourists.
Criticism of public health centers is on the rise as people are still unable to get quick access to PCR tests for COVID-19.
Japan started the public long-term care insurance system in 2000.
Avigan, a drug developed by FUJIFILM Toyama Chemical Co., Ltd., has become one of the leading candidates for the treatment of patients with COVID-19, and clinical trials are currently underway.
To prevent COVID-19 infection, it is necessary to suspend businesses for a certain amount of time, including restaurants, karaoke bars, live houses, and movie theaters where many people gather.
Authors: Arianto Patunru and Andree Surianta, ANU
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently issued a stern warning to the International Criminal Court (ICC) at The Hague to stop the chief prosecutor from proceeding with an intended investigation into war crimes allegedly committed by Israel. Pompeo’s warning concerned Israel, but as the US is itself in danger of an ICC investigation into supposed war crimes in Afghanistan, it was meant to send a broader message. Any ICC investigation of Israel and the US would be dangerous, and the allies must use all diplomatic and legal tools at their disposal to fight and delegitimize the prosecutor and the Court.
Twenty years after Israel’s withdrawal from south Lebanon, it is worth considering basic questions about its experience over years of warfare in a campaign that did not aim for victory. Those questions include what was going on, what Israel was fighting for, and what ultimately impelled it to withdraw. Such considerations have immediate significance in terms of clarifying the tenets of Israel’s security concept.
With the May 2000 abandonment of the South Lebanon Army, Israel signaled to its regional allies that it is not a reliable mainstay. This influenced the lukewarm response of the Golan Heights Druze to the Israeli offer of citizenship, as well as Israeli decision-making during the Syrian civil war regarding cooperation with Syrian militias in the villages near the Golan border.
America and Israel face numerous shared challenges, including terrorism, weapons and nuclear proliferation, cyber warfare, and the spread of radical Islamist ideology. America can consistently depend on the beacon of stability represented by democratic Israel in the turbulent Middle East, where the two countries share the same national and homeland security concerns: the megalomaniacal vision of Iran’s ayatollahs, the threat of Sunni and Shiite Islamic terrorism, and the critical security requirements of vulnerable pro-US Arab regimes. Israel also invests heavily in the American economy and is one of the top 20 suppliers of direct investment in the US.
In this column series, Yukihiro Matsuyama, Research Director at CIGS introduces the latest information about aging, safety net and fiscal crisis in Japan with data of international comparison.
In the previous article, “The reason why the stupid plan of ‘wagyu gift certificates’ was proposed,” the strengthened authority of the Prime Minister’s office (Kantei) and the reduced power of the Ministry of Finance behind that were mentioned as reasons for the recent deterioration of Japan’s agricultural policy.
On April 23, 2020, the Stimson Center and the Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS) jointly hosted a discussion on the Post-COVID-19 International Order. Moderated by East Asia Program Co-Director Yuki Tatsumi, the panel featured Distinguished Fellow and President Emeritus, Stimson Ellen Laipson, Kuni and Miyake from CIGS.
China piloted a national digital currency in April 2020.
American Economic and Geopolitical Power Is at Stake
The plight of indigenous peoples has drawn increased attention in recent years as they strive to retain their cultures and protect their ecosystems, lands and food traditions in the face of globalisation.
Indigenous food systems are typically biodiversity-rich, climate resilient and environmentally sustainable, and produce nutritious indigenous foods. Yet indigenous peoples are disproportionately affected by hunger and malnutrition, and the shift towards westernised diets high in energy-dense nutrient-poor food has led to rising obesity, diabetes and other non-communicable diseases.
Promoting indigenous plant and animal foods is a means to enhance nutrition and resilience to climate change. This report, from the Sustainable Diets for All advocacy programme, documents the status and importance of indigenous foods and food systems in Uganda in order to inform policies, programmes and action at the local and national level.
Commercial agriculture can take different forms and there is great variety in how small-scale farmers engage with it. But despite this diversity, farmers often have little control over trading arrangements and commodity prices. They may be trapped in lopsided agreements that can squeeze incomes and make them liable for risks, such as unpredictable weather. These arrangements destabilise livelihoods but are often difficult to change, because value chain terms may be dictated by powerful forces at local to global levels. Policies and programmes designed to support rural producer agency — their ability to make informed choices, take effective action and influence the world around them — must understand and address these structural factors. Drawing on insights from producer associations, development agencies, government bodies, advocates and businesses, we explore how farmers and their communities are being supported to navigate structural factors.
The climate finance system is failing to respond to the triple crises of poverty, nature and climate. Going further and faster on climate action requires a whole-of-society response and more and better finance that reaches local levels. So, what needs to change? This briefing outlines a reimagined climate finance system led by agile, flexible, pro-poor and locally led adaptation financing institutions from across society that will facilitate more sustainable adaptation actions, and put decisions and resources into the hands of the people and places that need them most. Governments, civil society and the private sector must work together to identify and strengthen mechanisms to deliver a comprehensive adaptation response that will address poverty, restore degraded landscapes and adapt to climate change impacts. Donors and aid agencies must work together to coordinate their support.
In Mozambique, fisheries are important to the national economy and individual livelihoods. Shallow water shrimp fisheries (SWSF) provide an important source of income for many coastal communities. Yet the sustainability of SWSFs is under threat, due to overfishing, the rapid and uncontrolled expansion of the artisanal fishing subsector, and the use of destructive fishing techniques, coupled with habitat destruction (in particular mangroves) and pollution. This also negatively impacts on the livelihoods of fishing communities and government revenues. Urgent measures are required to halt the depletion. This study analyses current fiscal policies for sustainable and fair fisheries in Mozambique, focusing on small-scale fisheries, particularly shallow water shrimp fisheries. In the SWSF, artisanal fishers are important not only economically but also socially. The working paper includes a series of policy recommendations linked to fiscal reforms to further support these efforts while furthering environmental goals. The recommendations are grouped into two main areas: equitable fiscal reforms, and expenditures and revenues for sustainable resource management.
Las dietas de los bolivianos han tenido una importante transformación en los últimos años como consecuencia de la urbanización, el incremento en el poder adquisitivo, y los cambios en las preferencias de los consumidores. A pesar de ello, el sistema alimentario de ciudades como La Paz está todavía fundamentado sobre los mercados mayoristas y minoristas tradicionales. Los comedores populares – sitios de venta de comida preparada que operan dentro de estos mercados – ocupan un lugar importante dentro de este sistema como puntos de acceso de comida nutritiva y asequible, y como repositorios del patrimonio culinario nacional. Sin embargo, la viabilidad de estos comedores está siendo amenazada por la competencia y por los cambios en los patrones de consumo. En este trabajo presentamos un estudio hecho en conjunto con las vendedoras de los comedores de los mercados de Achumani y Obrajes en la ciudad de La Paz. La investigación fue guiada en gran medida por los intereses y las preocupaciones de las vendedoras. En común acuerdo, y con su colaboración, realizamos encuestas a sus clientes para entender mejor sus preferencias y opiniones sobre los comedores. Finalmente, discutimos los resultados con las vendedoras para que sean útiles para las vendedoras y sus negocios.
Israel’s May 2000 rushed evacuation of its security zone in south Lebanon and the desertion of its longstanding local allies there tarnished the Jewish State’s deterrent posture and helped spark a string of large-scale armed confrontations with Hezbollah (2006), the PLO (the so-called “al-Aqsa Intifada”), and Hamas (2008/9, 2012, 2014). The withdrawal transformed south Lebanon into an ineradicable terror entity that can harass northern Israel at will and expedited Hezbollah’s evolvement into a formidable military power armed with 150,000 rockets and missiles capable of reaching anywhere in Israel. It also dented the IDF’s fighting ethos and operational competence, as illustrated by its lukewarm performance during the Second Lebanon War (2006) and Operation Protective Edge (2014).
The coronavirus pandemic is providing insights into the conduct and thinking of the Chinese leadership, which has far-reaching implications both internally and externally.
Geopolitical trends of the last two decades show that pivotal states in Eurasia are working to recreate their zones of influence. In so doing, they are challenging the US, which implies a corresponding challenge to the existing world order. Though Washington will be able to limit some powers’ ambitions, it has few tools with which to hamper the ambitions of Russia, China, and Iran.
“Healthcare cooperation is key to achieving aspiration 1 and goal 1 of Africa’s Agenda 2063 as well as SDG 3 on ensuring healthy lives and well-being for all.” This is according to a communiqué issued at the end of a virtual meeting on the regional impacts of and responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Following are Deputy Secretary-General Amina J. Mohammed’s remarks, as prepared for delivery, to Session 2 of the Africa Dialogues Series 2020 on COVID-19 and Silencing the Guns in Africa: Challenges and Opportunities; Global Solidarity and Stronger Partnerships for Africa’s response to COVID-19 and Silencing the Guns
Tens of millions of people in Africa could become destitute as a result of COVID-19 and its catastrophic impact on fragile economies and health systems across the continent, human rights chiefs from the United Nations and the African Commission warned on Wednesday.
As COVID-19 spreads across the continent, Africa has responded swiftly to the pandemic, and as of now reported cases are lower than feared. Even so, much hangs in the balance.
Tremendous socio-economic and political challenges are facing Morocco during the Coronavirus crisis. Regardless of the promising signs of a short-term momentum in unity and institutional trust, the institutional weaknesses in the public policy and healthcare system have not disappeared.
Foreign manipulation defies the wisdom of envisioning a political settlement of the Libyan conflict. All international diplomatic gestures need to be aligned via the UN platform, with a well-defined trajectory, rather than any zero-game equation or realist calculation.
There has been fluctuation and reconstruction of political legitimacy. Since the summer of 2014, two battles over legitimacy have spoiled Libyan politics and weakened the UN mediation with two rounds of international recognition of one new political institution or another.
The India-Nepal relations witnessed a diplomatic spat over the inauguration of the Mansarovar Link Road – a strategic connector that links Pithoragadh in Uttrakhand to Lipulekh Pass near the India-Nepal-China tri-junction, just 5 km shy of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) between India and China.
China’s diplomacy under the COVID-19 pandemic is highlighting a change in tone from what Henry Kissinger described as “subtle and indirect”.
Many developing countries have long maintained fuel subsidies because they are politically impossible to abandon, owing to the sticker shock that the public encounters at the pump as soon as prices are floated. But now that oil prices have reached historic lows, this problem has all but disappeared.
M. Chatib Basri, Indonesia’s finance minister from 2013 to 2014, is Senior Lecturer in the Department of Economics at the University of Indonesia
Rema N. Hanna, Professor of South-East Asia Studies at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, is Faculty Director of Harvard’s Evidence for Policy Design
Benjamin A. Olken, Professor of Economics at MIT, is Director of MIT’s Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab
It is no coincidence that countries with mission-driven governments have fared better in the COVID-19 crisis than have countries beholden to the cult of efficiency. Effective governance, it turns out, cannot be conjured up at will, because it requires investment in state capacity.
Mariana Mazzucato, Professor of Economics of Innovation and Public Value and Director of the UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose, is the author of The Value of Everything: Making and Taking in the Global Economy
Giulio Quaggiotto, a former head of the Regional Innovation Center in the Asia Pacific at the United Nations Development Programme, works at the Mohammed Bin Rashid Center for Government Innovation
The labor market and workplace conditions have changed dramatically in recent years – often not for the better. How will the COVID-19 pandemic change how jobs are structured in the 21st century?
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo sent a congratulatory message to Taiwan regional leader Tsai Ing-wen on the eve of May 20 congratulating her on the commencement of second term in office.
Has the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a process of either “de-sinicization” or “de-Americanization?”
By Chu Yin
An economy-crippling lockdown doesn’t seem to have deterred India from daring to dream big as its ambition to replace China’s role in the global industrial chain expands.
With COVID-19 still spreading around the world, certain groups of people in India, including its military, have seen a rising speculative attitude regarding conflict between China and the US, with a view to possible benefits from the situation. If this attitude extends to India’s foreign policy, it will only damage the country’s relations with China and hinder its focus on pandemic prevention, as well as the long-term economic recovery.
By Qian Feng
This year’s two sessions, China’s most important annual political event, will convene on May 21 and 22 after being delayed for about two months due to the novel coronavirus epidemic.
By Zhang Shuhua
Beijing should leave the painful past behind and rise above Western demonisation to seize China’s moment in history. A rethink of its aggressive foreign policy, over-the-top propaganda and tight grip on Hong Kong and Taiwan is in order
- The war against Covid-19 has left many Chinese health care workers suffering from depression, anxiety, insomnia and distress
- Support from coworkers and the wider community provided a lifeline during the darkest of times
In China, landlords and occupiers are taking stringent measures to help workers return safely. But many of the health and safety protocols enforced in China are much more difficult to implement in economies that value privacy
The controversial term has come to mean an erosion of Hong Kong freedoms but not so long ago, the two cultures would have been indistinguishable
At first glance, congressional activity is hardly worth exaggerating. The numerous resolutions should be considered not so much as ready-made foreign policy decisions, but in the context of public policy and positioning in the eyes of voters, especially against the backdrop of the upcoming presidential campaign. However, one cant underestimate the efforts of the congressmen. First of all, because the activity of the Republicans is in tune with the position of the administration, writes Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.
The worst-case scenario has been avoided with the pandemic gradually reaching a plateau. The economic incentives of governments were sufficient to prevent the collapse of the global economy. If the coronavirus pandemic eventually becomes a lesson for international politics and the global economy, then let this be a lesson about resilience to sudden shocks, writes Andrey Sushentsov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.
On 20 May, Burundians will elect a new president, future members of parliament and municipal councillors, amid the COVID-19 pandemic. In this Q&A, Crisis Group looks at the various scenarios for the polls and the challenges that will face whoever prevails.
Insecurity is plaguing north-western Nigeria, due to persistent herder-farmer tensions, rising crime and infiltration by Islamist militants. Federal and state authorities should focus on resolving conflict between agrarian and pastoralist communities, through dialogue and resource-sharing agreements, while also stepping up law enforcement.
The United States is one of the few leading economies to delegate responsibility for coronavirus restrictions to state and local governments.
The president has defied Congress, and gummed up cases in court. Now he’s firing the inspectors general.
BY DAVID A. GRAHAM
The CDC has quietly started releasing nationwide numbers. But they contradict what states themselves are reporting.
BY ALEXIS C. MADRIGAL, ROBINSON MEYER
A key House Democrat says that might be why he was fired.
BY KATIE BO WILLIAMS
The May edition of the GLOBSEC Intelligence Briefing touches upon the three major risks the V4 region might face – the economic fallout from COVID-19, the possible attempts to consolidate power in times of corona, and the deepening of social inequalities as a result of asymmetric distribution of negative impact within society. These risks are explored from the perspective of political developments, economic outlook, disinformation challenges, relations with Brussels and security implications.
Somebody ate a bad bat soup and suddenly the internet has gone from an important tool to a fundamentally critical infrastructure connecting us to the outside world. Internet that is keeping us afloat in these times of pandemic is just the same as it was before. We’re just more dependent on it, with no other alternatives available.
We rely on it to carry out our jobs, to meet in virtual space, to school our kids, to provide our entertainment, to keep society running and salvage a modus vivendi from the pre-Covid days. In short, we are using it a lot.
Author: C Raja Mohan, NUS
Author: Natalie Klein, UNSW
Author: Thomas Daniel, ISIS Malaysia
Governments cannot openly admit that the “controlled easing” of COVID-19 lockdowns in fact means controlled progress toward so-called herd immunity to the virus. Much better, then, to pursue this objective silently, under a cloud of obfuscation, and hope that a vaccine will arrive before most of the population gets infected.
The more the United States struggles with the ravages of COVID-19, the more President Donald Trump and his Republican Party will blame China. The facts hardly matter, as their exploitation of the tragic case of Wuhan doctor Li Wenliang shows: If Trump and the GOP think a conspiracy theory will win votes, they will run with it.
After three years of US President Donald Trump abusing America’s dominant position in the global monetary and financial system, his administration’s disastrous response to the COVID-19 pandemic will further erode faith in the dollar. And if the days of America’s “exorbitant privilege” come to an end, so will much else.
Digital platforms have shared data, taken responsibility for content and moved quickly to work with trusted sources of information. As Heidi Tworek writes, this should be the norm after the pandemic too.
As long as COVID-19 is a global concern, many aspects of daily life will be mediated by platform companies that see human interactions as content to be moderated, and as sources of data to be monetized
When the founding fathers2 gathered at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, in July 1944, there emerged two-and-a-half pillars of modern global economic governance. The International Monetary Fund and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (better known as the World Bank) were full-fledged, treaty-based organizations with defined governance structures. The putative International Trade Organization (ITO) never got off the ground in the same manner. Although negotiations for an ITO were successfully completed in the Havana Charter in March 1948, the charter was not ratified by the US Congress, on the grounds that it intruded into domestic economic issues. Instead, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) became operational on January 1, 1948, with 23 members, including the United States. The GATT was a far-reaching document for its time. It was designed to overcome resistance and might have built in a planned obsolescence.
Despite Africa’s wealth of natural resources, millions of its people live in extreme poverty. Effective mining governance can help Africa address this imbalance by achieving UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 1 (to end poverty) and SDG 8 (to create sustainable economic growth and decent work for all). Reforms aimed at generating more revenue for national governments to address poverty and building new partnerships between public and private sectors to promote economic growth and boost employment can help achieve these goals.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) is experiencing a crisis of legitimacy — trade wars rage on and the Appellate Body is unable to function. With negotiations at a standstill and disagreements on fundamental issues widening, the WTO is struggling to respond effectively to the challenges of rapid economic, political, social, technological and environmental change. Overcoming these urgent challenges will require a great deal of political will and international cooperation from member states. In this essay series, first published online, authors examine where the WTO is falling short, consider the opportunities that lie ahead and discuss options for a modernized WTO.
- Oonagh E. Fitzgerald
- Mira Burri
- Chios Carmody
- Dan Ciuriak
- Aaron Cosbey
- Thomas Cottier
- Henry Gao
- Bernard M. Hoekman
- Valerie Hughes
- Laura Lane
- Chin Leng Lim
- Spyros Maniatis
- Andrei Marcu
- Petros Mavroidis
- Rohinton P. Medhora
- Penelope Naas
- Amrita Narlikar
- Balakrishnan Rajagopal
- Giorgio Sacerdoti
- Risa Schwartz
- Jim Stanford
- Debra Steger
- Judy Whiteduck
TikTok’s rise has been meteoric. The fast-growing platform, simply described as an app for posting and sharing short videos, has been downloaded more than 1.65 billion times globally since 2016 and currently has more than 800 million monthly active users. Some industry leaders speculate that it could eclipse Instagram. When it comes to total cumulative users, ByteDance, the Chinese company behind TikTok, now ranks third, behind Facebook and the Chinese multinational Tencent (which owns WeChat, China’s largest platform, and QQ). With a valuation of US$75 billion, ByteDance is also the world’s most valuable start-up.
The recent emergence of two splinter parties from the Justice and Development Party (AKP) points to a deepening crisis within the party and growing discontent toward party leader and president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Although the leaders of the two new parties, Ali Babacan and Ahmet Davutoğlu, are both former high-ranking AKP politicians, they differ significantly in their style of politics and ideological leanings. Babacan is trying to position himself at the center of Turkey’s ideological spectrum and emphasize issues of good governance and the rule of law. Davutoğlu is aiming for the more conservative voters, focusing on the moral shortcomings of the current regime. Davutoğlu’s strategy has better chances in the short term, whereas Babacan is poised for a long game. The importance of both parties relies on their potential to attract votes from the AKP base. In a country that is deeply divided into two almost equal-sized camps that support Erdoğan and oppose him, even a small fraction of votes shifting from the AKP to the opposition can be a game changer.
Nine years into the (civil) war, Syria is in an extraordinarily poor position to confront the Covid-19 pandemic. Instead of the pandemic leading towards the uniting of local, regional, and international actors involved in Syria around a common purpose, conflict dynamics have hampered an effective response to Covid-19. Yet, the pandemic is unlikely to become a decisive turning point in conflict dynamics or an overall determinant of its future trajectory. Rather, in the mid-term, the relevant actors are likely to continue to follow their strategic interests in Syria, while some will have to adjust their operational priorities, as well as the strategies to pursue them, against the backdrop of the pandemic. Cooperation among external actors in solving the conflict is not set to get any easier. Trends of destabilisation and erosion of state capacity in the war-torn country are also likely to continue. Europeans should prioritise helping fight the pandemic in all areas of Syria and re-engage in diplomacy aimed at conflict settlement and the prevention of military escalation among involved actors.
On reaching the Horn of Africa, the corona virus will have encountered countries already facing a multitude of challenges. Prolonged armed conflict, drought and insecurity have turned more than eight million people into refugees in their own countries, and a further 3.5 million have fled to neighbouring countries where they live in overcrowded refugee camps. All the countries in this region are in a fragile state of political transformation or have been severely weakened by war and government failures. They possess neither the capacity to contain the Covid pandemic nor to mitigate the resulting unemployment, poverty and hunger. In order to guard against jeopardising the process of democratisation in Sudan and Ethiopia, special emphasis should be placed on social security systems and gaining the trust of the population. This requires an emergency aid package from abroad that will ensure the economic survival of all countries in the region. However, long-term support should be conditional on guaranteeing that most of the investment goes into developing state capacities for critical infrastructure and social security.
■ Although cross-border flight has been high on the international agenda for several years, the more wide-spread phenomenon of internal displacement has received scant political attention, despite the fact that it promotes conflict and hinders development.
■ The problem is exacerbated when internal displacement continues over an extended period. If a large population group is denied the ability to exercise its basic as well as its civil rights for years, there are high costs and political risks for society as a whole.
■ Internal displacement can have many causes. If it becomes a protracted phenomenon, this points to fundamental political shortcomings. Hence, the issue is a politically sensitive matter for the governments concerned, and many of them consider offers of international support as being undue interference in their internal affairs.
■ At the global and regional levels, legislative progress has been made since the early 2000s. However, the degree of implementation is still inadequate and there is no central international actor to address the concerns of IDPs.
■ The political will of national decision-makers is a prerequisite for the protection and support of those affected. This can be strengthened if governments are made aware of the negative consequences of internal displacement and if their own interests are appealed to.
■ The German government should pay more attention to the issue of internal displacement and make a special effort to find durable solutions. The most important institutional reform would be to reappoint a Special Representative for IDPs who would report directly to the UN Secretary-General.
The Assad regime’s instinct to survive at any cost closed off opportunities for change in Syria, yet contentious politics was possible and is still taking place.
This study seeks to determine the impact the fall in global oil prices post-2014 had on the welfare of the populations of three resource-rich post-Soviet states: Russia, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan. Changes in welfare will be explored through the analysis of several socio-economic indicators affected by the local currencies’ devaluations. It will be suggested that the single-commodity export dependence of the countries concerned, and the domestic development of non-tradeable sectors faltered in the face of external shocks. Several policy suggestions are offered to mitigate the effects of the economic downturns observed.
Tatiana Rosito, Senior Fellow e Coordenadora do Grupo de Análise sobre China do CEBRI, é um dos destaques da Carta Brasil-China organizada pelo Conselho Empresarial Brasil-China (CEBC), com o artigo “O Plano Decenal Brasil-China 2022-2031: oportunidade de preparação e realinhamento“.
In this edition of Wilson Center NOW we are joined by Akbar Ahmed, Ibn Khaldun Chair of Islamic Studies at American University, and Alex Thurston, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Cincinnati. They discuss the COVID-19 pandemic’s effect on the Muslim world during the holy month of Ramadan.
On May 14, the Brazil Institute, in partnership with the Environmental Change and Security Program, hosted an update on the situation in Manaus, followed by a conversation on the impact of COVID-19 on deforestation and sustainability in the Brazilian Amazon, and the implications this could have for us all.
Amy Erica Smith
Liberal Arts and Sciences Dean’s Professor and Associate Professor of Political Science, Iowa State University.
The Mexico Institute and the Mexican Council on Foreign Relations were pleased to host a web event with U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Christopher Landau.
Christopher Landau, U.S. Ambassador to Mexico
Jane Harman, Director, President, and CEO, Wilson Center
Duncan Wood, Director, Mexico Institute
Estimating how many of the 33.4 million borrowers who have government-backed mortgages will ask for forbearance in the coming months is critical for policymakers to know how much support mortgage servicers require to remain operational. Most mortgage market analysts have modeled homeowners’ forbearance take-up on the unemployment rate. The researchers explain how complicated this calculation is, that it should be based on the homeowner unemployment rate, not the overall unemployment rate, and offer three reasons the forbearance rate might be higher than the homeowner unemployment rate and three reasons it might be lower.
While the nation’s housing and mortgage markets aren’t causing the broader economic disruption in this crisis, as they did in the last, they are suffering from its effects. The authors discuss how these markets are straining under the weight of the disruption, what policymakers should do about it and what longer term implications we should draw from the experience.
Consistent with national trends, youth incarceration in Ohio has declined significantly during the past decade. Notably, however, the average daily population in the state’s youth prisons actually increased each year between 2016 and 2019. Reductions in youth incarceration allowed the Ohio Department of Youth Services (DYS) to close five of its eight juvenile correctional facilities over the last decade, yet the state still spends one-third of its juvenile justice budget on these facilities. Further, though racial and ethnic inequities in Ohio’s juvenile justice system declined in the past several years, significant disparities persist, particularly for Black youth. This data snapshot explores youth incarceration in Ohio and provides data to state partners working with the YouthFirst Initiative, a national advocacy campaign supporting state juvenile justice reform efforts.
In the report Catalyzing Police Reform with Data: Policing Typology for Los Angeles Neighborhoods, we created a typology that elucidates the relationship between resident-initiated and police-initiated activity in the City of Los Angeles, as well as explore how that relationship varies across neighborhoods, by synthesizing data sources on calls for service, stops, arrests, and crime. The open data come from the Los Angeles Open Data Portal, the American Community Survey, and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This Technical Appendix provides a detailed description of the data sources and methodology used to develop the typology, including processing the raw data, conducting a cluster analysis using Gaussian mixture models (GMM) and performing a stability analysis to identify how individual variables drive clustering. Our code for processing and analyzing the data is on GitHub.
Strong community-police relationships are essential to public safety, and these relationships influence how communities engage with the police. We created a typology based on multiple aspects of policing that reveals a relationship between resident-initiated and police-initiated activity, and explores how that relationship varies across neighborhoods. We found that resident calls for service and police stops and arrests generally increase together, and neighborhoods with high amounts of activity tend to have a greater proportion of violent crime and serious calls for service. The neighborhoods with high activity also tend to have wider racial disparities in stops and arrests, and more economic hardship. This neighborhood-policing typology can inform conversations about police reform in Los Angeles and also serve as an example of how open data can be a powerful tool for local movements for a more equitable criminal justice system in other cities.
This report investigates home price appreciation in three tiers (low, moderate and high price) from 2000 to 2019, nationally and in 285 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in an attempt to identify which factors influence the different appreciation rates. We find that, nationally, from January 2000 to December 2019, prices for the lower-priced homes increased 126.2 percent, compared to 99.8 percent for medium-priced and 86.4 percent for higher-priced homes. Although lower-priced homes appreciate more quickly than higher-priced homes throughout the country, in MSAs with higher employment growth, stronger zoning and land-use regulation, and less land available for development, the lower-priced homes are even more significantly outpacing the appreciation rate of the higher-priced homes. We also find that the relatively greater increase in housing costs for low-income households has caused residual income inequality (household income minus housing costs) to increase more than income inequality.
Federal tax law provides substantial tax incentives for retirement saving. These include the deferral of taxes on contributions to retirement savings accounts by employers, employees, and self-employed taxpayers and the earnings on these contributions until the funds are withdrawn in retirement for traditional retirement accounts; the exemption of investment income accrued within retirement accounts for Roth retirement accounts; and a retirement savings tax credit for low-income taxpayers. This chartbook explores the implications of current-law income tax incentives for retirement savings, illustrates alternative ways of measuring the tax benefits they generate, and analyzes the distributional impacts of alternative tax proposals to encourage retirement saving. We find that tax incentives for retirement saving provide the largest benefits as a share of income to upper-middle-income taxpayers.
Join Sarah Rosen Wartell, president of the Urban Institute, for the fourth installment in Urban’s conversation series, Evidence to Action. During this virtual event, Senator Tammy Baldwin (D- WI) will discuss her efforts to create a subsidized employment program. Following that, Demetra Nightingale, Institute fellow at the Urban Institute, and Indivar Dutta-Gupta, co–executive director of the Georgetown Center on Poverty and Inequality, will join Wartell to explore why subsidized jobs could be integral to our economic recovery.
Regulations under the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) have not been substantially updated since 1995—notwithstanding enormous changes in the financial services system and many aborted attempts. Last December, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation proposed a regulation that would vastly change how banks are evaluated under the CRA; comments were due April 8. As bankers, communities, and policymakers consider the proposal, what are their thoughts about its impact? On communities? On banks large and small; urban, rural, regional, and national; virtual and traditional? How has COVID-19 influenced those evaluations? A panel of experts will consider these issues, as well as procedural concerns with the proposal, including the Federal Reserve Board’s decision not to join in.
- Laurie Goodman, Vice President and Codirector, Housing Finance Policy Center, Urban Institute
- Buzz Roberts, President and CEO, National Association of Affordable Housing Lenders
- Krista Shonk, Vice President, Regulatory Compliance Policy, American Bankers Association
- Josh Silver, Senior Advisor, National Community Reinvestment Coalition
- Mark Willis, Senior Policy Fellow, New York University Furman Center
- Ellen Seidman, Nonresident Fellow, Urban Institute (moderator)
More than a fifth of China’s population have migrated from the countryside to join the urban workforce. These migrant workers have been indispensable to China’s economic growth but face exclusion from many social programs.
Jerome H. Powell (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) and Adam S. Posen (PIIE)
China and India were at it again this month. According to Indian news reports, border patrols from both countries have been involved in a series of incidents along their disputed boundary in recent weeks, including a pair of confrontations in early May that devolved into fisticuffs.
As the world grapples with the coronavirus pandemic, The Heritage Foundation offers expertise in a wide range of policy areas. We analyze the latest developments and formulate policy solutions based on these principles. Heritage convened the National Coronavirus Recovery Commission to make recommendations for state and local governments, the Trump administration, Congress, and the private sector. Learn more at CoronavirusCommission.com.
In early May, Henry Hub, the U.S. natural gas benchmark price, rose above its counterparts in Europe and Asia, making U.S. gas the most expensive in the world.
As U.S. Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook made clear in his recent Wall Street Journal op-ed, if the United States fails to secure an extension to the arms embargo against Iran that expires in October, it is willing to try and force the reimposition of UN sanctions on Iran.
It Is Time to Plan for North Korea’s Inevitable Succession Crisis
Nigeria’s philanthropists respond inconsistently to national crises. By examining the private sector’s robust Covid-19 pandemic intervention, this piece provides recommendations for a stronger multisectoral response to the humanitarian disaster in northeast Nigeria.
Este texto apresenta um panorama internacional das medidas econômicas adotadas para reduzir os graves efeitos econômicos da pandemia de Sars-COV-2 em três países: Estados Unidos, Reino Unido e Espanha. A análise toma como base primordialmente documentos governamentais que normatizaram as medidas de política econômica. São analisados os diversos canais por meio dos quais a crise sanitária afeta a economia. Por um lado, estão os fatores de oferta: oferta de trabalho, produtividade do trabalho e funcionamento das cadeias produtivas. Por outro lado, encontram-se os fatores de demanda: consumo das famílias, investimento privado e comércio exterior. O terceiro canal diz respeito aos fatores financeiros incides sobre as variáveis de demanda e, principalmente, sobre o grau de liquidez das empresas financeiras e não financeiras. As medidas adotadas nos três países apresentam como características comuns a mobilização de grande volume de recursos fiscais e financeiros, a adoção de uma grande diversidade de instrumentos de política econômica e o uso de arranjos institucionais sofisticados em termos de regras de focalização e de mecanismos de operacionalização das medidas adotadas.
Claudio Amitrano, Luís Carlos G. de Magalhães, Mauro Santos Silva
Organizador: Daniel Pitangueira de Avelino, Igor Ferraz da Fonseca e João Cláudio Basso Pompeu
O objetivo deste estudo é realizar um exercício de modelagem econométrica das séries individuais de tributos visando à obtenção da elasticidade-renda e à projeção futura para cada tributo. Para isso, fez-se uso dos modelos linear dinâmico (MLD) e fatorial dinâmico (MFD), ambos estimados com base na abordagem bayesiana. Nossa amostra de tributos corresponde a mais de 90% da carga tributária brasileira, sendo composta de dados mensais entre dezembro de 2006 e maio de 2019. A previsão dentro da amostra é feita para o período de um ano, enquanto a projeção fora da amostra vai de junho de 2019 a junho de 2020. Os resultados obtidos corroboraram a expectativa quanto à adequação das metodologias empregadas. Os exercícios de validação da previsão mostraram excelente performance, tendo em vista os diversos critérios de avaliação. Em particular, para a maior parte dos casos, o erro acumulado percentual registrou um valor abaixo de 4%, sendo que, em alguns casos, o valor obtido para esse indicador ficou abaixo de 1%.
Mário Jorge Mendonça e Geraldo Sandoval Góes
Sumidos en un agrio solipsismo, desconectados de la realidad… algunos no ven que llegaron los tiempos de austeridad y vacas flacas.
El enorme esfuerzo sanitario, político y moral que está requiriendo el preservar la vida de las personas, hace que la sociedad pierda “su coordinación como un todo”,
Se ha presentado un proyecto de ley para regular los efectos de circunstancias imprevisibles que alteren la economía de los contratos, en términos que el cumplimiento resulte exorbitante para una de las partes.
Author: Editorial Board, ANU
Author: Jia Qingguo, Peking University
Author: Justin Yifu Lin, Peking University
In the run-up to the 2020 US presidential election, it is time to reflect on the impact of Trumps presidency on various countries across the globe. How do different countries look back upon four years of President Trump? In this opening episode of the Clingendael Spectator series “Four Years Trump: Taking Stock and Looking Forward”, Shi Yinhong explains from a Chinese perspective how Trump sought rivalry with China on all fronts.
Shi Yinhong – Professor of International Relations at the Renmin University of China
Paris saw a new and disturbing terrorist incident by the end of April. A 29-year-old man, called Youssef T., wounded two policemen. He told the police that he carried out the attack because of the situation in Palestine. He also stated to be sympathetic towards the goals of ISIS. Oh and by the way, more than 23.000 people died from the coronavirus in France over the last two months.
COVID-19 is not the only crisis, and probably not the biggest crisis in the Sahel.
The global coronavirus crisis has produced many negative effects, including an increase in cybercrime that targets health organizations, such as hospitals and medical research centers.
Digital connectivity will feature prominently in the upcoming EU–Japan summit scheduled for May 2020, and in the EU–Africa summit of November 2020. On both occasions, digital Official Development Assistance (ODA) deserves a more prominent place on the agenda than seen so far. For Japan, this means implementing coordinated digital development initiatives and aiming for greater contributions to the e-economy and e-government, and for African governments, the European Union (EU) should identify real needs that inform targeted, request-based action on digital ODA.
In its recently published annual report, the Dutch general intelligence and security service AIVD notes that intelligence services of other countries often play a key role in covert influencing operations that target political decision-making directly, or focus on the manipulation of public perceptions indirectly. One of the countries mentioned continuously with regard to these kinds of activities is Russia. Of old, this country has been most adept at covertly influencing the perceptions and public opinion in other countries, which can have a disruptive effect on policy-making processes. However, being done covertly, these activities have tended to remain hidden in the shadows. Lately though, they can’t seem to stay out of the limelight. Recent operations by Russia’s intelligence services, in particular the military intelligence service GRU, are a case in point. Only rarely has an intelligence service of a major power received so much public attention over such a short period of time as has happened to the GRU.
Suisheng Zhao, University of Denver
Author: Jean-Pierre Cabestan, Hong Kong Baptist University
Author: Tristan Kenderdine, Future Risk
As Lebanon begins negotiations with the International Monetary Fund, the two sides will have to find the least painful path to adjustment in the country.
AMER BISAT, MARCEL CASSARD, ISHAC DIWAN
In these critical times funds are limited and we must have a serious debate on every expense — including military expenses
UN peacekeeping missions are deployed in increasingly violent contexts, such as Mali and South Sudan. It leaves such missions suspended somewhere between traditional peacekeeping and peace enforcement. Concurrently with this transformation, protection of civilians has become increasingly important.
How do countries like Ghana and India, two of the main contributors of troops to UN missions, define, approach, and experience the task of protecting civilians? What do they consider its key components to be? And what do they think is required to protect well?
Peter Albrecht & Podder Sukanya
This Swedish TV Series recreates the intricacies of life under Islamic State and foregrounds contemporary prominent issues such as radicalisation and homegrown terrorism.
Jaume Castan Pinos
We have seen an escalation of attacks and massacres carried out by jihadist militants affiliated with al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, accompanied by the forceful closure of schools, mosques and churches.
The Korean economy is fast contracting as consumption and exports decrease on the negative impacts of COVID-19.
This essay offers a general assessment of Japan’s performance in the 2019 G20 and G7 Summits, held respectively in Osaka, Japan and Biarritz, France and looks at how Tokyo coordinated with its European partners (The European Union (EU) institutions and the EU Member States) in these international settings.
The US is applying sanctions to Iran indiscriminately, contravening a moral and reputational imperative to ensure that American policies do not contribute to more COVID-19 deaths, writes Mark Fitzpatrick.
How will the FFG(X) fit into the US Navy’s future fleet plans? The new-generation frigate could be key to hopes of maintaining a credible forward presence, but questions remain over whether the US Navy has found the right balance in terms of cost and capability, writes Nick Childs.
In the negotiations between the European Union and the United Kingdom over their future relationship, we see a high probability of a weak contractual outcome, given the dominance of politics over considerations of market efficiency.
La tercera oleada de la pandemia llega al mundo emergente. ¿Qué esperar a corto y medio plazo?Al ‘shock’ económico inmediato podría seguirle una remodelación en la cadena de valor global.
This event will discuss SURE, a new European Union instrument for temporary ‘Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency’
Gilles Mourre, Head of Unit – Fiscal Policy and Surveillance, European Commission, DG ECFIN
It’s time for the EU to make quick and indispensable progress in forming a capital markets union.
BY: MARIA DEMERTZIS
COVID-19 has triggered a severe recession and policymakers in European Union countries are providing generous, largely indiscriminate, support to companies. As the recession gets deeper, a more comprehensive strategy is needed. This should be based on four principles: viability of supported entities, fairness, achieving societal goals, and giving society a share in future profits. The effort should be structured around equity and recovery funds with borrowing at EU level.
Early in the outbreak, government researchers forecast several high-risk scenarios that were downplayed or ignored in public messaging.
GAUTAM I. MENON
What needs to be done to unleash Africa’s potential and ignite a growth revolution?
How will COVID-19 compound Africa’s governance challenges, and is the continent prepared?
Turkey’s military intervention has turned Libya’s storyline on its head
Two years ago, the Valdai Club issued a report, titled “Living in a Crumbling World”, in which it suggested that multilateral cooperation is on the decline. Any crisis of international institutions leads to increasing anarchy – each state is left to rely on itself to solve the problems of survival. The developments of 2020 so vividly confirmed this hypothesis that they surprised even the authors themselves.