Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s decisive victory in Sri Lanka’s presidential election reflects voters’ concerns over security, poor economic prospects and ineffective governance – but also indicates the country’s dangerous ethnic polarisation. Many worry that Rajapaksa, a Sinhalese nationalist, will energise anti-Muslim campaigning and further alienate the Tamil community.
Tens of thousands of foreign men, women and children affiliated with ISIS are detained in northeast Syria. The camps where they are held pose a formidable security and humanitarian challenge to the region. Western governments should, at minimum, accelerate the repatriation of women and children.
Although Germany’s mediation role in the Libyan conflict has received relatively little attention so far, this might change if its initiative leads to a peace conference – or, alternatively, a collapse of the political process.
A new effort to manage the economy, one that brings together both sides of the war with international partners, is an essential step forward.
Sir David Attenborough and Julian Hector, on behalf of BBC Studios Natural History Unit, collect the prize presented by Her Majesty The Queen during a special members event at Chatham House.
As with the proceedings against former US Presidents Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton, the impeachment inquiry into Donald Trump is ultimately a domestic political issue that will be decided in the US Congress. But, unlike those earlier cases, the Ukraine scandal threatens to jam up the entire machinery of US foreign policy.
Carl Bildt was Sweden’s foreign minister from 2006 to 2014 and Prime Minister from 1991 to 1994, when he negotiated Sweden’s EU accession. A renowned international diplomat, he served as EU Special Envoy to the Former Yugoslavia, High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, UN Special Envoy to the Balkans, and Co-Chairman of the Dayton Peace Conference. He is Co-Chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
America owes its economic strength to its private sector, which has long benefited from an absence of undue influence by politicians and the state. But under US President Donald Trump’s administration, discretionary decisions by policymakers are increasingly giving some companies advantages over others.
Anne O. Krueger, a former World Bank chief economist and former first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, is Senior Research Professor of International Economics at the School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, and Senior Fellow at the Center for International Development, Stanford University.
Although interest-rate cuts and central-bank asset purchases were highly effective in resolving the 2008 financial crisis, they have proved utterly disappointing in the years since. At this stage, it should be clear that the sustained weakness of private-sector investment is not a problem central bankers can fix on their own.
Stephen Grenville, a former deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, is a non-resident fellow at the Lowy Institute in Sydney.
Owing to a recent easing of both Sino-American tensions and monetary policies, many investors seem to be betting on another era of expansion for the global economy. But they would do well to remember that the fundamental risks to growth remain, and are actually getting worse.
Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank. His website is NourielRoubini.com.
Author: Anthony V Rinna, Sino–NK
Author: NR Bhanumurthy, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy
Author: Anil Sigdel, Nepal Matters for America
Evans J.R. Revere
Author: Takemasa Sekine, NUCB
Israel’s neighbor to the north is gripped by a popular uprising that many fear could lead to civil war.
Russia and China are widely perceived as the rising powers in the Middle East as a result of America’s flip-flops in Syria and President Donald Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy. This perception also reflects an acknowledgement of Russian and Chinese support for regimes irrespective of how non-performing and/or repressive they may be. But they could both ultimately find themselves on the wrong side of history in an era of global breakdown of popular confidence in political systems and incumbent leadership and increasingly determined and resourceful protests.
Author: Editorial Board, ANU
Author: Thomas Paterson, ANU
By voting President Maurico Macri out of office, Argentinians have signaled that they will no longer tolerate continued economic crisis, much less policies that appear to make matters worse. But, because solutions to Argentina’s problems are not mutually compatible, the new government will likely face similar challenges.
Leandro Mora Alfonsín is a professor at the University of Buenos Aires, the University of Business and Social Sciences, and the National University of General Sarmiento.
Higher nominal wages for low-paid workers can boost real earnings, increase consumer spending, and help make housing more affordable. And insofar as raising the minimum would increase companies’ wage bill, it would create a stronger incentive to replace labor with capital, which could lay the foundation for renewed productivity growth.
Jim O’Neill, a former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and a former UK Treasury Minister, is Chair of Chatham House.
African countries cannot abandon “brown” industries – those that depend on oil, gas, and minerals – and create a green economy overnight. But they can use them as a tool to achieve a clean, sustainable economy.
Tariye Isoun Gbadegesin is Head of Heavy Industries and Telecoms at Africa Finance Corporation.
Author: Jane Golley, ANU, Yixiao Zhou, ANU, and Meiyan Wang, CASS
On the window of a bike shop in Copenhagen, a sign reads: Your next car is a bike.
New estimates of child labour, forced labour and human trafficking in global supply chains are revealed in a report compiled by the ILO, OECD, IOM and UNICEF – members of the Alliance 8.7 partnership on child labour, forced labour, modern slavery and human trafficking.
Countless sanitation workers in the developing world work in conditions that endanger their lives and health, and violate their dignity and rights.
100 years ago the first International Labour Conference adopted the first International Labour Standard – on working time. As the ILO celebrates this landmark moment, ILO Working Time specialist, Jon Messenger, looks back at the history of the Convention and its impact.
The International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) yesterday (13/11) launched a USD 1.35 billion regional plan to respond to the increasing humanitarian needs of Venezuelan refugees and migrants in Latin America and the Caribbean, and the communities hosting them.
Opportunities and challenges for businesses, workers and consumers – mobile phones as an example
■ The December 2018 Global Compact on Refugees reaffirmed the international community’s commitment to refugee protection – yet willingness to accept refugees is in decline globally.
■ No progress has been seen in the search for viable modes of responsibility-sharing. With the exception of Germany, all the main host countries are middle-income or developing countries.
■ In a situation where more people are forced to leave their homes than are able to return every year, the more affluent countries must shoulder more responsibility. That would mean pledging more resettlement places and increasing public and private funding to relieve the poorer host countries.
■ Aid organisations regularly find themselves faced with funding shortfalls. As the second-largest donor of humanitarian and development funding, Germany should campaign internationally to expand the available financial resources and improve the efficiency of their use.
■ None of the new funding ideas will master the multitude of demands on their own. New and pre-existing financing instruments should therefore be combined.
■ The German government should collect experiences with the different funding approaches in its new Expert Commission on the Root Causes of Forced Displacement (Fachkommission Fluchtursachen). The Global Refugee Forum, which meets for the first time in December 2019, provides an opportunity to start a discussion on new ways of mobilising the required funds for international refugee protection.
The autumn of this year offers a sad picture of Britain struggling with Brexit, Trump, Putin and Erdogan playing a cynical game with the Kurds in Syria and of the EU divided over the future of the enlargement process.
Arms control appears to be in a state of crisis. This Clingendael Spectator series explores the different dimensions of this global challenge. This introductory episode provides an oversight of the most important recent developments in arms control. What crisis are we exactly talking about?
China’s experience lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty in just a few decades holds important lessons. First and foremost, while randomized controlled trials and the types of targeted programs they assess may have a role to play in fighting inequality, the most powerful poverty-reduction tool is economic growth.
Keeping climate change in check will require reducing the carbon footprint associated with global shipping, which accounts for the bulk of world trade. With governments and the shipping industry already moving in the right direction, the challenge will be to agree on policies that are adequate to the scale of the crisis.
Pascal Lamy, a former director-general of the World Trade Organization and EU trade commissioner, is a Global Ocean Commissioner.
The fall of the Berlin Wall heralded not only the collapse of communism in Europe, but also the destruction of a broader – and far more constructive – social-democratic compact. To prevent a return to extremism and instability, that compact must be refashioned for the twenty-first century.
Daron Acemoglu, Professor of Economics at MIT, is co-author (with James A. Robinson) of Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty and The Narrow Corridor: States, Societies, and the Fate of Liberty.
Tim Benton reflects on the relationship between land, food and climate change, and considers the challenges created by competing demands for the services land produces.
During the early 16th to 19th centuries, Spain received large amounts of monetary silver from its colonies in America. Vagaries of the sea thus affected Spain’s money supply. This column investigates the effects of money supply shocks on the economy using the case of maritime disasters in the Spanish Empire. It finds that a one-percentage-point reduction in the money growth rate caused a 1.3% drop in real output that persisted for several years. Analysing monetary transmission channels, it shows that price rigidities and credit frictions account for most of this non-neutrality result.
Adam Brzezinski, Yao Chen, Nuno Palma, Felix Ward
Economic warfare was widely used in WWII. When one country blockaded another’s supply of essential goods or bombed the industries producing them, why did the adversary’s economy fail to collapse? This column, part of the Vox debate on the economics of WWII, reviews Mançur Olson’s insights, which arose from the elementary economic concept of substitution. He concluded that there are no essential goods; there are only essential uses, which can generally be supplied in many ways.
Unemployment is absent from most quantitative trade models in the academic literature. Using a trade model that also includes unemployment and data between 2001 and 2008, this column shows that repealing NAFTA and the imposition of 20% bilateral tariffs between the US and Mexico in all sectors would reduce welfare by 0.31% in the US and by 6.6% in Mexico. An US increase of trade barriers on motor vehicles against imports from all countries bar Mexico and Canada would lead to a decrease in long-run welfare and employment in both Mexico and the US as well as in major car-producing countries.
Céline Carrère, Anja Grujovic, Frédéric Robert-Nicoud
During World War II aircraft production in Japan increased sharply. This column, part of the Vox debate on the economics of WWII, examines the reasons for this ‘production miracle’, focusing on an aircraft manufacturing plant of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Co., one of the two largest aircraft producers in Japan. The key to the production increase was the expansion of the supplier network. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries organized many suppliers to provide aircraft parts to its plants. However, in the final stage of the war, destruction of the supplier network by strategic bombing and an earthquake caused the collapse of the company’s aircraft production.
Following the Global Crisis, some countries increased expenditures on research and development (R&D) to address secular stagnation. This column investigates how successful this rise in R&D scale was in supporting productivity growth in Japan and other advanced economies. It argues that R&D efficiency has declined in many of these countries in the past decade, compared to the preceding ten years. This suggests that increasing R&D spending is not enough to foster growth, and that countries need to do more to support innovation and collaboration in carefully chosen sectors.
Tsutomu Miyagawa, Takayuki Ishikawa
Author: Adam Triggs, ANU
Historical anniversaries are always a time to reflect, to celebrate and criticize times past. They usually portray a national or international commemoration of an event that had a significant impact on a community. And they give room for cries for a repetition or a condemnation of it. With the thirtieth anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, this phenomenon is yet again evident across the globe—1989: the year in which a divided German city rang in the fall of communism; the year in which a torn country laid the grounds for reunification; the year in which freedom won over oppression. A glorious success, a leading example for the rest of the world.
Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff speaks to DW on U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s Berlin visit.
Thirty years ago, the Berlin Wall fell, ending the division of an entire continent. The bipolar system of the Cold War dissolved and a new optimism about the future took hold in the West and around the globe. Liberal democracy was on the march and Francis Fukuyama’s thesis of “the end of history” pointed the way ahead. Today, the hopeful mood of 1989 has been replaced by gloom. The West is no longer unified in its support for liberal democracy and a new geopolitical competition is reshaping the international system. What lessons can we draw from 1989 to face current challenges? How should we handle today’s uncertainty to protect democracy tomorrow?
Keynote Speaker and Panelist
- Francis Fukuyama, Professor of Political Science, Stanford University
- Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, Vice President, The German Marshall Fund of the United States
- Alina Mungiu-Pippidi, Professor of Democracy Studies, Hertie School
Clinging desperately to the truck’s undercarriage, it’s hard to imagine the boy’s terror. What horrors drove him to the Spanish border, we’ll never know. The 13-year-old dropped under the lorry’s wheel, and his tiny body was crushed. Another life lost in Europe’s unremitting migrant crisis; but not, like most, amid the misery of a Mediterranean crossing. The child died attempting entry at one of Europe’s two land borders with North Africa – frightening frontiers where human rights are in free fall, experts warn.
Two thousand years ago, the streets of Rome bustled with people from all over the ancient world. The empire’s trade routes stretched from North Africa to Asia, and new immigrants poured in every day, both by choice and by force. Now, an ancient DNA study has shown those far-flung connections were written in the genomes of the Romans.
By Lizzie Wade
For the sixth year in a row, more than 1,000 people have died attempting to cross the Mediterranean Sea, according to the UN Refugee Agency.
Jomo Kwame Sundaram and Anis Chowdhury
C. P. Chandrasekhar
C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The rapid pace and sheer scale of innovation in digital currencies and mobile payments indicates that a monetary revolution is forthcoming. The choice for governments and central banks is whether to stand in front of a train that is gaining steam, or get on board and reap the benefits.
Huw van Steenis, a former senior adviser to Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, is Chair of Sustainable Finance at UBS and a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on the Monetary and Financial System.
In 2015, United Nations member states adopted the Sustainable Development Goals, which include an imperative to “ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all.” Yet, in the last four years, matters have deteriorated significantly.
Jayati Ghosh is Professor of Economics at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, Executive Secretary of International Development Economics Associates, and a member of the Independent Commission for the Reform of International Corporate Taxation.
In 2017, Chinese President Xi Jinping declared that by the time the People’s Republic celebrates its centenary in 2049, it should be a “great modern socialist country” with an advanced economy. But following through with planned measures to tighten mainland China’s grip on Hong Kong would make achieving that goal all but impossible.
Minxin Pei is a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and a non-resident senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
Authors: Champa Patel, Chatham House and Rudabeh Shahid, University of York
Attacks by Turkish-backed forces shattered a hard-won pseudo-normalcy for Syrian women who had lived under ISIS.
BY GAYLE TZEMACH LEMMON
Quantum computers could crack the codes that secure the world’s digital information but racing to a solution could create more threats.
BY JACK CORRIGAN
From sloppy work to blown deadlines to deadly failures, the company has lost its way. It needs tough love — in the form of Congressional investigations.
BY MARK R. JACOBSON
Just as the US and the West grapple with China’s lead in next-gen 5G networking gear, Beijing announced two working groups focused on advancing 6G.
BY BRANDI VINCENT
Macron’s and AKK’s distinct styles obscure a core agreement: threats to the transatlantic relationship mean that European countries must finally stand up and defend themselves.
Author: John Nilsson-Wright, Cambridge University and Chatham House
US President Donald Trump’s administration wants to build a rules-based and democracy-led order in the Indo-Pacific, but seems to have no idea how. If it doesn’t find the answer soon, and imbue its Asia policy with strategic heft, constraining Chinese aggression will only become more difficult.
Brahma Chellaney, Professor of Strategic Studies at the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research and Fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin, is the author of nine books, including Asian Juggernaut, Water: Asia’s New Battleground, and <em=” “=”” target=”_blank”><em=”>Water, Peace, and War: Confronting the Global Water Crisis.
Many people, including economists, wonder why a scheduled 3% fare increase on the Santiago metro triggered mass protests that paralyzed the entire country. In fact, the popular response should come as no surprise, and understanding it is crucial to devising better policy solutions.
Ricardo Hausmann, a former minister of planning of Venezuela and former Chief Economist at the Inter-American Development Bank, is a professor at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government and Director of the Harvard Growth Lab.
Most American presidents have honored their constitutional duty to “take care that the laws be faithfully executed.” Donald Trump, however, views his role differently, and for that reason is in the greatest trouble of his presidency so far.
Elizabeth Drew is a Washington-based journalist and the author, most recently, of Washington Journal: Reporting Watergate and Richard Nixon’s Downfall.
China has begun to build a parallel international order, centered on itself. If the European Union aids in its construction – even just by positioning itself on the fault line between China and the United States – it risks toppling key pillars of its own edifice and, eventually, collapsing altogether.
Ana Palacio is former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Spain and former Senior Vice President and General Counsel of the World Bank Group. She is a visiting lecturer at Georgetown University.
Like a usual suspect, uncertainty is accused over and over again as an accomplice dragging down the economy in the past few months. The Economist recently said it was like a poison, and The Wall Street Journal said “uncertainty is the monster that lives under the bed of every CEO.” Federal Reserve officials invoked it, too, as they decided to cut interest rates, inserting a stent of sorts to stabilize the economy.
In September 2019, China had its own version of the FaceApp privacy storm. Using artificial intelligence and machine-learning techniques, the Zao app allowed users to swap faces with celebrities in movies or TV shows. It went viral as a tool for creating deepfakes, but concerns soon arose as people noticed that Zao’s user agreement gave the app the global rights to use any image or video created on the platform for free.
Winston Ma Wenyan – Adjunct Professor, New York University
Author: Pham Duy Nghia, Fulbright University Vietnam
he Citizen’s Climate Convention is an unprecedented exercise. As it started a month ago, it is too early to take stock, but the first two sessions show two significant trends. On the one hand, the strong involvement of the citizens selected at random, who express their willingness to take up the challenge and come up with proposals. On the other hand, the unprecedented availability of open access resources on both the understanding of the issues and the solutions to meet the climate challenge. Two necessary, but not sufficient, conditions for the success of the Convention.
Now that the old rules governing macroeconomic cycles no longer seem to apply, it remains to be seen what might cause the next recession in the United States. But if recent history is our guide, the biggest threat stems not from the US Federal Reserve or any one sector of the economy, but rather from the White House.
Raghuram G. Rajan, former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, is Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and the author, most recently, of The Third Pillar: How Markets and the State Leave the Community Behind.
Since 1980, income inequality has exploded in the United States, while remaining much less extreme in Europe. Yet each side of the Atlantic could learn from the other in tackling the problem, which is as much about predistribution policies as it is about redistribution.
Thomas Blanchet is Statistical Tools and Methods Coordinator at the World Inequality Lab – Lucas Chancel, Co-Director of the World Inequality Lab, is a lecturer at Sciences Po and a research fellow at the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations – Amory Gethin is a research fellow at the World Inequality Lab
I recently helped my seven-year-old son prepare a show-and-tell talk for school about our family’s summer vacation.
On March 15, Cyclone Idai hit Zimbabwe and we were faced with a twofold challenge. First, how would we design a disaster recovery solution that could deliver both quick yet sustainable results to put the cyclone affected people back on the path of resilient and sustainable recovery? And secondly, how would we efficiently and effectively implement this in a fragile country where the Government cannot receive direct funding from us?
The use of pre-analysis plans (PAPs) has grown rapidly over the past five or so years, with this usage intended to enhance the transparency and credibility of research. In a new working paper, George Ofosu and Daniel Posner look at a large sample of these plans to examine the extent to which their actual use in practice matches up with these goals. This is a useful exercise, both for understanding where progress is made and where improvements are still possible, as well as for helping us to understand where there are still outstanding issues to deal with.
The U.S. public financial management (PFM) system evolved out of various controversies. One of these controversies was a dispute between Alexander Hamilton and Thomas Jefferson about how much discretion the executive branch of the U.S. government should exercise over the spending of public funds. Jefferson’s victory enabled Congress to assert its authority by making appropriations so highly specific as to hinder executive action. Had Hamilton won, the Executive would have attained extraordinary budgetary powers – an arrangement similar to that in some of our client countries today.
Esper touts “good progress” in high-level review intended to cut fat and find funds for projects to counter China and Russia.
BY MARCUS WEISGERBER
In the U.S., an industry nonprofit found that two of every five cybersecurity jobs is going unfilled
BY JACK CORRIGAN
Like Charles de Gaulle, the French president would unify Europe under France’s conception, with Germany footing the bill
BY KORI SCHAKE
The alleged breakdown of the Phillips curve has left monetary policy researchers and central bankers wondering if we need to develop completely new models for price and wage determination. This column argues that a relatively small alteration of the standard New Keynesian model, combined with using the nonlinear instead of the linearised solution, is sufficient to resolve the two puzzles – the ‘missing deflation’ during the recession and the ‘missing inflation’ during the recovery – underlying the supposed breakdown.
Jesper Lindé, Mathias Trabandt
The growth of the US national debt during the Trump presidency is particularly remarkable given its overlap with a period of economic expansion. But in this regard if few others, the Trump administration is no outlier. This column challenges the claim that Republicans adhere to fiscal conservatism in debt policy. Instead, it shows that Republican administrations since WWII have been more prone to expand government debt than their Democratic counterparts. And broadly speaking, the same pattern emerges in a panel of OECD countries.
Fabrizio Zilibotti, Andreas Müller, Kjetil Storesletten
Neutrality has long been viewed as impartiality in war. This column, part of the Vox debate on World War II, asserts that neutral states in the war were realist in approaching their defence to ensure their survival. Neutrals such as Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland maintained independence by offering economic concessions to the belligerents to make up for their relative military weakness. Economic concessions took the form of merchandise trade, services, labour, and capital flows. Depending on their position and the changing fortunes of war, neutral countries could also extract concessions from the belligerents, if their situation permitted.
In order to pursue ‘fair trade’, the Trump administration has imposed a punitive 25% tariff on $250 billion’s worth of Chinese goods. However, conventional trade statistics greatly exaggerate the US trade deficit with China. This column uses the iPhone as an example to demonstrate how the trade deficit is inflated and why value-added should be used to assess the bilateral trade balance. If multinational enterprises, including Apple, shift part of their value chains out of China, China may no longer play a central role in global value chains targeting the US market. Depreciation of the yuan will be insufficient to counter the effect.
Amid much discussion of the challenges facing the Chinese economy, the line-up of usual suspects typically excludes the most worrying scenario of all: popular unrest. While skeptics would contend that widespread protest against the regime and its policies is unlikely, events elsewhere suggest that China is not immune.
Barry Eichengreen is Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a former senior policy adviser at the International Monetary Fund. His latest book is The Populist Temptation: Economic Grievance and Political Reaction in the Modern Era.
From Beirut to Hong Kong to Santiago, governments are eager to bring an end to mass demonstrations. But, in the absence of greater institutional responsiveness to popular grievances and demands, people are unlikely to stay home.
Aryeh Neier, President Emeritus of the Open Society Foundations and a founder of Human Rights Watch, is author of The International Human Rights Movement: A History.
At a time when India’s social fabric has been placed under unprecedented stress, Indians greeted the Supreme Court’s ruling on a long-running inter-religious dispute with almost universal relief. The Court’s verdict thus should be viewed as the start of a process of national healing.
Shashi Tharoor, a former UN under-secretary-general and former Indian Minister of State for External Affairs and Minister of State for Human Resource Development, is an MP for the Indian National Congress. He is the author of Pax Indica: India and the World of the 21st Century.
When it comes to fighting climate change, large sporting events have struggled to win any prizes. Fans travelling to just one European Cup match this year are estimated to have generated nearly 5,600 tonnes of CO2.
Douglas Broom – Senior Writer, Formative Content
Between 2007 and 2017, the volume of renewable energy produced in the European Union’s 28 member states rose by 64%.
Sean Fleming – Senior Writer, Formative Content
Before today, sea level rise and flooding were already forecast to wreak havoc for millions now and in the coming decades. Now, the story looks much worse – three times worse, to be precise. According to new research, hundreds of millions more people are already at risk from climate breakdown-caused coastal flooding and sea level rise than previously thought. And by the end of the century, large swathes of the coastal land we live on today could be unihabitable – even with immediate and deep emissions cuts.
Komali Kantamaneni – Research Fellow, Solent University
With the US administration turning its back on the Paris Climate Agreement, demands for corporate climate leadership are mounting. At a time when executives should be filling the leadership gap, too many CEOs continue to be trapped by short-term, profit-only thinking.
Fred Krupp – President, Environmental Defense Fund
The issue of whether Australia’s current drought is caused by climate change has been seized on by some media commentators, with debate raging over a remark from eminent scientist Andy Pitman that “there is no link between climate change and drought”. Professor Pitman has since qualified, he meant to say “there is no direct link between climate change and drought”.
Authorities declared a state of emergency across a broad swath of Australia’s east coast on Monday, urging residents in high risk areas to evacuate ahead of looming “catastrophic” fire conditions.
The protests in Lebanon have evolved into more than a fight against a failed and corrupt government. They constitute a rare demand for political and social structures that emphasize national rather than ethnic or sectarian religious identities in a world in which civilizational leaders who advocate some form of racial, ethnic, or religious supremacy govern the world’s major as well as key regional powers.
Author: Chung-in Moon, Yonsei University
Jerusalem and Beijing have cultivated a flourishing economic relationship in recent years, but that bond is limited by the tension it has engendered with a Washington wary of China’s growing footprint in Israeli strategic assets. In an effort to mitigate this tension, Israel’s security cabinet has decided to establish a mechanism to monitor foreign investment.
There is much debate both within and without China over whether or not its economic interests in the region will force it to play a more active security/military role in the Middle East. In fact, recent political and economic trends in the region indicate that a shift in China’s approach to the Middle East along these lines has already started.
Author: Editorial Board, ANU
Contracts for complex outsourcing and supply-chain deals are challenging to write and vulnerable to bad behaviour. Rather than recommend that each party hire an army of sophisticated lawyers to anticipate and litigate the eventualities of an incomplete contract, this column explores a different approach. In a ‘Vested’ contract, each party agrees to shared goals, guiding principles, and structured communication to fall back on when conflicts arise. Used by a growing number of organisations worldwide, Vested contracts build trust and encourage parties to respect one another’s interests, facilitating communication and problem-solving.
David Frydlinger, Oliver Hart
The 2018 tariff hikes reversed a decades-long push by the US for lower global trade barriers around the world. This column examines the impact of the resulting trade war on the US economy. It estimates a $51 billion annual loss to US consumers and firms from higher import prices, with an aggregate annual loss of $7.2 billion when producer gains and tariff revenues are factored in. It also argues that US tariffs protected politically competitive counties, whereas retaliations by other nations targeted strongly Republican counties.
Pablo Fajgelbaum, Pinelopi Goldberg, Patrick Kennedy, Amit Khandelwal
Europe in the thirty years since the fall of the Berlin Wall has seen deeper integration, but has also struggled with new threats to its core values and institutions.
Beijing is spreading disinformation to influence Taiwan’s election in January, but that doesn’t necessarily mean President Tsai Ing-wen will get voted out.
Author: Ross Tapsell, ANU
Authors: Bijun Wang and Xiao He, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Alla fine di ottobre 1989, in un momento caratterizzato da difformi trasformazioni politiche nella Comunità europea e nell’Europa sovietica, tutti i capi dei gruppi politici presenti nel Parlamento italiano, convinti che il momento storico meritasse una comune analisi e proposta che andasse ben oltre i pur nobili interessi di parte, votarono una mozione che impegnava il Governo a far iscrivere al Consiglio europeo che si sarebbe tenuto l’8 e il 9 dicembre l’esame sull’attuazione e sul funzionamento dell’atto unico europeo, in relazione alle riforme istituzionali necessarie.
When this year’s Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to three pioneers in using randomized controlled trials to fight poverty in developing countries, the choice revived questions about the ethics of the method. Three questions, in particular, need to be addressed.
Peter Singer is Professor of Bioethics at Princeton University, Laureate Professor in the School of Historical and Philosophical Studies at the University of Melbourne, and founder of the non-profit organization The Life You Can Save. His books include Animal Liberation, Practical Ethics, The Ethics of What We Eat (with Jim Mason), Rethinking Life and Death, The Point of View of the Universe, co-authored with Katarzyna de Lazari-Radek, The Most Good You Can Do, Famine, Affluence, and Morality, One World Now, Ethics in the Real World, and Utilitarianism: A Very Short Introduction, also with Katarzyna de Lazari-Radek. In 2013, he was named the world’s third “most influential contemporary thinker” by the Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute.
Arthur Baker is a research associate at the Center for Global Development.
Johannes Haushofer is a professor of Psychology and Public Affairs at Princeton University.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to block Albania and North Macedonia’s EU-membership bids has brought a symbolic end to the post-1989 era. Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, both European and US leaders had recognized that an orderly expansion of the European project is key to European peace and prosperity.
Christopher R. Hill, former US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia, was US Ambassador to Iraq, South Korea, Macedonia, and Poland, a US special envoy for Kosovo, a negotiator of the Dayton Peace Accords, and the chief US negotiator with North Korea from 2005-2009. He is Chief Adviser to the Chancellor for Global Engagement and Professor of the Practice in Diplomacy at the University of Denver, and the author of Outpost.
Digital technology was not invented to tackle inequality, and there is even a risk that it could widen existing economic and social disparities. But, as the case of China illustrates, new platforms also offer many possible ways to narrow the opportunity gap.
Shang-Jin Wei, a former chief economist at the Asian Development Bank, is Professor of Finance and Economics at Columbia Business School and Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs.
It should not be surprising that our era of rapid technological change has coincided with renewed skepticism of capitalism across Western countries. Yet this time is different, not least because of the rise of winner-take-all markets and a shift in the geographic center of the global economy.
Harold James is Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University and a senior fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation. A specialist on German economic history and on globalization, he is a co-author of the new book The Euro and The Battle of Ideas, and the author of The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization Cycle, Krupp: A History of the Legendary German Firm, and Making the European Monetary Union.
Authors: Jonathan T Chow, Wheaton College, and Leif-Eric Easley, Ewha Womans University
Eighteen months after Washington quit the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, Tehran is proceeding with staggered steps away from its own compliance. The deal is unravelling against the backdrop of high regional tensions. A de-escalation along the lines developed by France provides an off-ramp.
South Sudan’s conflict parties are supposed to form a unity government by 12 November. But key disputes between them remain unresolved. External actors should push the adversaries to make progress on these matters before entering any power-sharing arrangement – lest war erupt once more.
China and the West are increasingly at loggerheads in Turtle Bay. So are European capitals and Washington. The handling of African crises is contentious as well. Amid these frictions, it is the job of UN diplomats to keep channels for quiet communication up and running.
This year marks the 70th anniversary of NATO, which its 29 members will commemorate on 3 and 4 December in London. To be clear: this will not be a regular NATO ‘Summit’. The gathering has a less formal status and will not be concluded with a common statement on how to move forward. Rumour has it that changing the name to a NATO’s ‘Leaders Meeting’ was inspired by President Trump’s capricious behaviour during past summits. This development is indicative of a larger problem: disunity within the Alliance. NATO is the most important security organisation of our time, but is it aware of its most pressing threat?
Afghanistan, Syria, Libya and Mali have been hotbeds of conflict for years on end. In each of these conflicts, the West is involved, either directly or indirectly by means of NATO or UN missions. In this Clingendael Spectator series on Western interventions, the current status and the future of the conflicts will be analysed. Second stop: Syria, where the Turkish invasion that started on 9 October is only the latest illustration of the fact that the Syrian civil war has featured one foreign intervention after another. This article provides an assessment of the tactical military success and the broader strategic effects of eight sets of intervention.
The Arctic’s melting ice not only acts as an early warning system for the world’s climate, but also makes this region an indicator of change for international security policy. The Trump administration sees the Arctic primarily as an arena of competition between great powers. This could both benefit and harm the region. A greater engagement on the part of the USA would be welcome, but if it comes with an attempt to exclude other states, this would damage the high level of cooperation that has held sway in the Arctic thus far. US Arctic policy has become a variable that is dependent on great-power rivalry. The resulting polarisation of relations makes it difficult to find the necessary common solutions for coping with the changes caused by global warming.
Authors: Peter Drysdale and Adam Triggs, ANU
Innovation is at the heart of economic growth and job creation. It can transform productivity and efficiency and address many of the world’s longstanding and emerging challenges, such as climate change, health, education and social inclusiveness.
Most people think of Dubai as a tourist hub. And with nearly 16 million visitors in 2018, it’s the world’s fourth most popular destination.
Energy consumption, in all its many forms, enables everything from how we live, eat and move, to how we work and communicate. Greater energy use is also needed to end poverty and boost incomes around the world. That’s why the UN SDG7 to reach “access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all” by 2030 is a wonderful vision.
Britain’s minority Conservative government has given up trying to get its Brexit deal through parliament and has called a snap election for 12 December. Here’s why it will be an election like no other.
Nearly 700 experts from around the world descended on Dubai to share bright ideas on how to build a better future, at a time when urgent progress is needed on sustainable development.
The technological advances of the Fourth Industrial Revolution have fundamentally altered society in ways both seen and unseen. This digital transformation has changed how people live and work, and everything in between. One area of daily life, however, seems to be largely missing out on this revolution: infrastructure. It remains one of the least digitally transformed sectors of the economy. While individual examples of highly advanced infrastructure systems exist, the sector at large lags behind others in innovation, a fact made all the more apparent by infrastructure’s ubiquity. When the World Economic Forum Global Future Council on Infrastructure gathered for its annual meeting in Dubai in November 2018, it sought to understand why.
Unfolding technological developments pose a significant challenge in terms of the depth of economic and social transformation needed for their benefits to be fully realized and equitably distributed. Questions are emerging regarding the adequacy of our current economic policies and practices, the social contract between citizens, businesses and governments and the metrics used to assess socio-economic progress.
For the first time, a senior Defense official has called our Beijing for selling lethal autonomy.
BY PATRICK TUCKER
Leaving the Paris Agreement and other efforts to slow the globe’s transition from fossil fuels will ultimately undermine U.S. power.
BY ROBINSON MEYER
Their top concerns don’t include the Mexican border, Iran, or even Syria.
BY MACKENZIE EAGLEN
It shouldn’t really surprise that in the end, after seven long years of deliberation, India decided against joining the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
Alyssa Ayres, Authorby
Today, about four out of every five dollars spent in the OECD economies purchases services or intangible goods. This “dematerialization” of economies demands a more nuanced understanding of what drives productivity.
Diane Coyle is Professor of Public Policy at the University of Cambridge.
China’s GDP growth has been slowing steadily since the first quarter of 2010, and the prospect of slower growth has gained widespread acceptance, both within and outside China. But the downward trend is riskier than many observers seem to realize.
Yu Yongding, a former president of the China Society of World Economics and director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, served on the Monetary Policy Committee of the People’s Bank of China from 2004 to 2006.
The young activists leading school strikes and mass protests around the world have been highly effective in sounding the alarm about climate change. But if the movement is going to be anything more than a flash in the pan, it must adopt realistic policy objectives that the broader public can support.
Daron Acemoglu, Professor of Economics at MIT, is co-author (with James A. Robinson) of Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty and The Narrow Corridor: States, Societies, and the Fate of Liberty.
Thirty years ago this week, the world watched in awe as thousands brought down the Berlin Wall, marking the beginning of the end of the Cold War. Today, however, democracy is in crisis, and authoritarianism is once again on the rise – including in countries that were once behind the Iron Curtain.
John Lewis Gaddis is the Robert A. Lovett Professor of History at Yale and the author of several books, including, The Cold War: A New History.
Israel seeks to prevent a powder keg from detonating on the southern border as it prioritizes the more threatening front up north.
Author: Thiago Cintra Oppermann, ANU
Russia is now in charge of a multi-front war. It will need to manage relations between multiple local actors very carefully.
The latest upheaval in northeastern Syria caused by Turkey’s invasion, and the division of the Syrian plunder among Turkey, the Assad regime, and Russia, presents Iran with new avenues for building up attack capabilities and further destabilizing the region.
Author: Michael Leach, Swinburne University of Technology
Author: Maaike Okano-Heijmans, Clingendael Institute
Author: James Guild, RSIS
Digital government initiatives at the national and sub-national levels in China are evolving at a rapid pace. With the first generation of basic digitization of government operations now complete, Chinese authorities are looking at how leading-edge technologies and big data can further improve the performance of government, both in terms of data-driven decision making and public services.
Like many readers of this blog, I was over the moon about this year’s Nobel Prize in Economics, awarded to Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo, and Michael Kremer “for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty.” As David wrote the day of the announcement, randomized control trials (RCTs) have fundamentally changed the way we do research. The research implemented and inspired by the winners, as some journalists have noted (NPR and NYTimes), has also changed our understanding of the constraints that poor people face around the world.
Togo, a small country in West Africa known for its glimmering phosphate reserves and sandy beaches, just earned its place among the world’s top 10 reformers on the World Bank Group’s Doing Business 2020 report.
Every month in Brazil, the government team in charge of processing reimbursement expenses incurred by congresspeople receives more than 20,000 claims. This is a manually intensive process that is prone to error and susceptible to corruption. Under Brazilian law, this information is available to the public, making it possible to check the accuracy of this data with further scrutiny. But it’s hard to sift through so many transactions. Fortunately, Rosie, a robot built to analyze the expenses of the country’s congress members, is helping out.
Growing concerns over climate change and other environment and social issues are having a big impact on how today’s investors think about their investment strategies. According to a recent global survey by FTSE Russell, 53% of asset managers are currently implementing or evaluating ESG considerations in their investment strategies. A number of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) frameworks have emerged to help guide investment strategies for corporate and sovereign bonds, as well as equities.
The statistics are grim: an elephant is poached for its tusks about every 30 minutes, an African rhino for its horn every 8 hours, one in five fish is caught illegally, and in certain countries, particularly in Africa and South America, 50% to 90% of timber is harvested and traded illegally. As much as 35% of the value of all illegal trade is estimated to come from rosewood.
Welcome to SuM4All in 60 Seconds: A Vlog Toward Sustainable Mobility. In this video blog series, I will be speaking with influencers, experts, country leaders, cities, companies, and civil society representatives from all over the world to discuss the importance of sustainable transport and the future of mobility.
– from reducing poverty, improving food and nutrition security and boosting agricultural production, to strengthening rural livelihoods and managing land and water resources sustainably.
It is undeniable that progress has been made in reducing extreme poverty over the last quarter century—from 36 percent of the world population in 1990 to an estimated 8.6 percent in 2018—and that living standards for hundreds of millions of people have improved over that time.
Information and communication technology has no doubt had a positive economic impact globally, but its political bearing is less clear. This column shows that the proliferation of mobile technology reduces citizens’ confidence in their current governments, especially in places where news broadcasting is censored but the internet is not. Furthermore, by reducing the cost of reaching voters, the internet has also led to increased support for both left-wing and right-wing populist movements.
Sergei Guriev, Nikita Melnikov, Ekaterina Zhuravskaya
Financial markets process orders faster than ever before. Although faster speeds are associated with smaller spreads, they may also lead to less informative prices. This column captures this trade-off within a theoretical model of high-frequency trading in modern financial markets. It then uses the model to evaluate some potential market design responses to high-frequency trading that are currently in debate. In particular, it shows that asymmetric speed bumps improve markets by eliminating an inefficient form of high-frequency trading.
A large and growing proportion of global investment flows is channelled through conduit jurisdictions and offshore financial centres, making it difficult to track the real origin and ownership of FDI. This column illustrates an innovative approach to estimating FDI positions by ultimate investors and discuss some implications in key policy areas such as trade and investment, development, and international taxation.
Higher risk perception may suppress demand for a product class and chill R&D investment, or increase the incentive to innovate risk-mitigating technologies. The column uses media coverage of accidents involving CT scanners to investigate the impact on firm innovation. Higher public risk perception increased patent applications and the rate of new product innovation, even without changes in liability or regulation.
Alberto Galasso, Hong Luo
Panelists discuss Turkey’s domestic politics, its recent actions in northern Syria, and the shifting nature of U.S.-Turkish relations in the three years since the attempted July 2016 coup.
Senior Policy Advisor, Office of Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH); Director, NATO Observer Group, U.S. Senate
Founding Director, Turkey Program, Middle East Institute
Director, International Security Program, George Mason University
German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz discusses fighting climate change in multilateral settings, European economic developments, and German economic policy.
Federal Minister of Finance, Federal Republic of Germany
Senior Executive Advisor, Booz Allen Hamilton Inc.; Member, Board of Directors, Council on Foreign Relations
Iraq’s struggling economy and government corruption sparked the protests, in which hundreds have died. The governing elite appears shaky, and the stability of the country is at stake.
By Max Boot
The US presidential candidates Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are right to call for stronger action to rein in powerful tech companies like Amazon and Facebook. But a successful strategy will have to look beyond antitrust laws.
Kaushik Basu, former Chief Economist of the World Bank and former Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India, is Professor of Economics at Cornell University and Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution.
As is often the case, deep historical shifts tend to show up first in popular culture, and only then in formal politics. That is why we should look at the complex legacy of 1989 not only in the formal celebrations being held in Berlin, but also in the stands of a soccer stadium in Sofia.
Mark Leonard is Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Even after the United Kingdom leaves the European Union, the country will face years of talks in which it will be negotiating from a position of weakness. The UK will be less prosperous and influential than before, and will be under increasing internal strain because of policies driven by malignant English nationalism.
Chris Patten, the last British governor of Hong Kong and a former EU commissioner for external affairs, is Chancellor of the University of Oxford.
Under Putinism, Russia is ruled by a sanctified minority that propels the country toward some goal that is fully known only to them. Whatever that goal turns out to be, neither the rule of law nor the hopes of the Russian people is likely to be any match for it.
Dmitry Oreshkin, an independent political analyst based in Moscow, is the author of Dzhugashvili and the Soviet Statistical Epic.
Author: Lev Nachman, UC Irvine
Author: Raffaello Pantucci, RUSI
Geopolitical tensions and rising protectionism are pushing global uncertainty indices to, or near to, record highs, leaving world economic growth and trade teetering on a knife edge
- Washington has the dollar and powerful legislation at its disposal, and can make life difficult for countries just by denying them access to the US financial system
- Beijing needs to step up the pace of RMB internationalisation, to mitigate the risks to the Chinese economy
The United States is the world leader in supporting global health and humanitarian response, making it uniquely placed to elevate the critical health and safety needs faced by women and girls in emergencies and fragile settings around the world. While addressing these needs is an important goal on its own, it also forms a pillar of global health security, as the prevention of health crises and conflict, and recovery after they occur, are greatly enhanced when these needs are met.
Section 1064 of the fiscal year (FY) 2018 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) mandated three separate studies of the Air Force’s current and future force structure.
How is the Democratic Party approaching key national security and defense issues heading into the 2020 U.S. election? In Defense 2020’s inaugural episode, host Kathleen Hicks explores this crucial question with Democratic defense experts Andrew Hunter (Center for Strategic and International Studies), Kelly Magsamen (Center for American Progress), and Adam Mount (Federation of American Scientists).
President Donald Trump will join leaders from around the Pacific Rim at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC) Leaders’ Meeting in Santiago, Chile this November 16 and 17.
Months after India instituted a lockdown on the disputed region of Kashmir, clashes have erupted on Pakistan’s borders with Kashmir and with Afghanistan.
BY PATRICK TUCKER
Removing America’s nuclear weapons from Incirlik Air Base doesn’t have to drive a permanent wedge between Washington and Turkey.
BY JIM BAIRD, JAMES SIEBENS
The withdrawal of US forces from the Kurdish areas of northern Syria will help strengthen Iran’s standing in the country, make Russia the leading power in the region, and possibly lead to the resurgence of ISIS terror. All these outcomes will have far-reaching policy implications for the Middle East’s pro-Western actors and for the war on jihadist terror.
It has become fashionable to link Russian foreign policy moves of the past 20 years solely to President Vladimir Putin and his close associates. But what is viewed as innovative is in fact an intensification of much older policies that long preceded Putin’s rise to power.
Arab politicians blame the Israeli establishment for the rampaging violence in Israeli Arab society, but ignore the underlying problems in their own sociopolitical culture that foster that violence.
In Syria, President Trump, like Obama before him, seems oblivious to the reality that when the US withdraws, its enemies advance and fill the vacuum. Ousted NSA John Bolton has said that America is constraining its range of action through foolhardy entanglements with international institutions and naive bilateral agreements that promise too much to America’s enemies in exchange for too little. He maintains, correctly, that Americans support leaders who are not appeasers but defenders of American values, vital national interests, and human rights.
The violent demonstrations in Latin America in the spring of 2019 have prompted many theories about why so many protests have taken place spontaneously and at the same time. Some have asked: Was this a sudden eruption of hopes for a democratic revival? Unfortunately, the answer is a qualified no.
Monica de Bolle (PIIE)
Protests and civil unrest have gained momentum across several Latin American countries over the course of 2019, including Chile, Ecuador, Bolivia, Mexico and Haiti. Chris Sabatini explains that while each case differs a number of themes and challenges are underpinning a common feeling of discontent across the region.
Panellists discuss the immense power of the law to advance the right to health. How can the law safeguard health, promote equality and translate vision into action and sustainable development?
Following the announcement of the death of ISIS group leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in a US military raid, Lina Khatib explains what is likely to happen next.
Dr Lina Khatib
Author: Masahiko Takeda, Tokyo
Author: Alfred M. Wu, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy
Author: Godofredo Ramizo Jr, Oxford
Entering its third year, the 2019 Yushan Forum, centered on “Deepening Progressive Partnerships in Asia,” was attended by 30 ambassadors and foreign representatives from 22 countries. The theme focused on the efforts from governmental sectors and non-governmental organizations as a way to demonstrate multi-faceted results of collaborations and partnerships, specifically through sessions on people-centered development agenda sessions, for example, the importance of “Enhancing Technological and Economic Partnerships” which was closely related to the session on “Building Talent Cultivation Partnerships” and another panel on “Promoting Partnerships in Sustainable Development;” these issues reflect the strategic importance of practical collaboration between Taiwan and its neighbors. The two-day forum, held on October 8-9, attracted over 1,000 participants from 31 countries, including 31 international partners from 13 countries serving as panelists.
Author: Alan H. Yang and Ding Ling Chen
Author: Ren Ito, Mercari Europe
The day after the Financial Times put out a front-page story on the rumor that Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor will be replaced by the Chinese central government, I met her personally in Hong Kong. The meeting was in the guest lounge before the opening ceremony of the International Forum on Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, which was co-hosted by the government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) and the Office of the Commissioner of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
By Wang Wen
More and more information indicates that there are likely to be many Vietnamese among the 39 stowaways who died in the container in Grays, Essex. According to the latest media reports, more than 100 migrants sneaked into the United Kingdom in three container trucks, among which only one had been found and the whereabouts of the other two are still unknown.
Although no official statement has been made, it is widely believed that the 39 bodies found dead in Essex, the United Kingdom, were stowaways involved in human trafficking.
By Shi Tian
The third China-Pacific Island Countries Economic Development and Cooperation Forum was held on October 21 in Apia, the capital city of Samoa. The two sides explored more cooperation opportunities in a variety of fields including infrastructure, trade, environmental protection, agriculture and tourism.
By Zhai Kun
China, the world’s biggest oil importer, should follow the lead of Russia and switch to the euro from the US dollar for its oil and natural gas contracts.
By Hu Weijia
President Joko Widodo started his second term in office after winning the recent presidential elections in Indonesia. In a speech after swearing the oath of office in Jakarta on October 20, Widodo proposed the Indonesia’s 2045 vision, pledging to make the country one of the top five world economies with a total GDP of $7 trillion and an annual GDP per capita of $320 million rupiah ($22,807) by the time it celebrates 100 years of independence in 2045.
By Ge Hongliang
About two decades ago, mobile telephones were a preserve of the well-off in Africa.
By Mark Kapchanga
Samuel Barkin’s ‘Realist Constructivism’ has often been read as a way to synthesise realist theory and constructivist meta-theory. Guzzini argues that it is better understood as an attempt to combine realist foreign policy doctrine with constructivist theory. It is an invitation to explore constructivism as the theoretical backbone to inform a prudent foreign policy. Indeed, this DIIS Working Paper argues that a constructivist foreign policy doctrine informs realises the aim of prudence just as well, if not better, as realist maxims.
The Israeli notion of mamlachtiut does not translate well into English. Coming from the word mamlacha, or kingdom, the word suggests the quality of acting in a sovereign-like fashion. David Ben-Gurion used the term when he spoke of the Jews’ usage of military power while exercising caution with their political power. In Israeli history books, the term is conjured every time the nation faces a major juncture that requires individuals and factions to transcend partisan loyalties. Judging from their behavior in the recent elections, Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz both appear to be fuzzy on the meaning of the word.
The challenging geography of Greece makes it hard for the country to take full advantage of its natural resources and expand its energy grid. Though it has doubled its share of renewables, it needs to redouble those efforts to reach the EU’s ambitious goal of covering a third of its energy needs from renewable sources by 2030. The Greek islands that have been at the forefront of the migration and refugee crises would particularly benefit from a targeted policy to reach that goal, as the transition would increase their energy security, reduce their energy costs, and diversify their economies. Greece has the potential to be a model of sustainability that would enhance the stability of the entire Eastern Med.
The American withdrawal from Syria has produced chaotic results – but as with many aspects of President Trump’s presidency, it offers an opportunity to view realities with a new clarity. The nature of Turkey under Erdoğan, European weakness, and the unwillingness of America to support indecisive military missions have been revealed. These realities demand new approaches to European defense and to Middle Eastern engagement and disengagement.
Violent protests have accelerated across the Arab world every day since they re-erupted on October 1. The evidence suggests that it is the protesters, not the rulers, who learned lessons from the “Arab Spring” protests of 2011.
Author: Editorial Board, ANU
Author: Han Phoumin, ERIA
Laxman Kumar Behera is Research Fellow at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi
Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy is Director General, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi
One key signature of the first Jokowi administration is its attention towards the Indonesian millennial generation. What could be expected from his second term concerning millennial engagement?
Keoni Indrabayu Marzuki
President Joko Widodo (Jokowi)’s second cabinet looks to the future and it sees both trouble and promise ahead for Indonesia.
Locked in a long-term competition around advanced technologies, the US is using outdated policy tools to slow China’s rise as a technology power. A worst case scenario: decoupling of the two countries’ technology, financial, and economic sectors.
A four-day official visit on 3-6 October 2019 by Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to India offered an opportunity for the two countries to review their bilateral relationship and exchange notes on regional matters. What are the key takeaways from their robust engagement efforts?
Hypersonic weapons are seen by many as the “next big thing,” and, as such, great power militaries appear to be a hypersonics arms race. There are, however, many technical challenges to deploying an effective hypersonic weapon, and, even then, its impact on military balances may be less than projected.
Richard A. Bitzinger
The real problem with the phase one accord announced on October 11 is the basic structure of the deal into which it presumably fits. From trade to currency, the approach is the same – prescribing bilateral remedies for multilateral problems.
Stephen S. Roach, a faculty member at Yale University and former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, is the author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China.
As a key variable in the fight against climate change, the world’s oceans cannot be a mere afterthought on the global economic and environmental agenda. We should invest in protecting the oceans as if our future depended on it, because it does.
Emma Navarro is Vice President of the European Investment Bank.
Ever since the 2016 US presidential election, Donald Trump has exploited unfounded fears of immigrants for political gain, declaring an “emergency” and demanding funds for a border wall. But the real threat is not from immigrants; it is from xenophobic politicians whose policies would severely weaken the economy.
Anne O. Krueger, a former World Bank chief economist and former first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, is Senior Research Professor of International Economics at the School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, and Senior Fellow at the Center for International Development, Stanford University.
Conference coordinators: Olivier Blanchard (PIIE) and Dani Rodrik (Harvard University)
Lael Brainard (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System), Markus K. Brunnermeier (Princeton University), Martin Wolf (Financial Times), Stefan Ingves (Riksbank), Simon Potter (PIIE) and Hyun Song Shin (Bank for International Settlements)
Paul Blustein (Centre for International Governance Innovation) joins to discuss the contentious process of US-China negotiations in the late 1990s that ultimately resulted in China joining the World Trade Organization. Their discussion of his latest book – Schism: China, America, and the Fracturing of the Global Trading System – sets the stage for much of the subsequent challenges that continue to affect the US-China trade relationship today.
Featuring Soumaya Keynes (The Economist) and Chad P. Bown (PIIE)
Chad P. Bown (PIIE) and Jennifer A. Hillman (Council on Foreign Relations)
In the past few years, several catchwords have emerged to describe the technology policy issues surrounding the intersection of user-generated content, online intermediaries for that content, and the host of legal and political frameworks that shape the relationships between them. Policy makers and journalists working in the area have had to sift through a host of similar-sounding concepts often used interchangeably — three common ones being platform governance, platform responsibility and platform regulation.
Facebook is facing pressure from all directions to take more responsibility for what happens on its platform. Governments are debating regulation, advertisers are upset about false metrics and users are frustrated with arbitrary content enforcement. And, by all appearances, the company is working to improve the way it manages content produced by more than two billion users. However, its recent efforts are little more than smoke and mirrors; Facebook’s newly announced oversight board will neither democratize Facebook nor provide users with more agency or decision-making power.
This paper is intended to help exporters identify and anticipate potential issues arising from the international transfer of clean technologies. It seeks to analyze the main legal obstacles faced by exporters in the trade of clean technologies. Identifying barriers and risks can provide predictability in the complex realm of international trade and can help ensure that export transactions are conducted efficiently and are commercially viable. Along with categorizing the various barriers to technology transfer, this paper’s main objective is to propose multiple avenues that exporters can use to mitigate and remove barriers to trade.
The reasons for the UK to remain in the EU have not changed for decades, with most of its trade in goods and services being conducted with European countries. The vast majority of capitalist enterprises in the sceptre isle believe that leaving the European Union is foolish. Brexit shows that the old alliance between the Conservative Party and Britain’s industry is broken. The Tories, once the party of capital, have been drifting away from private enterprise but, even more importantly, national capitalism no longer exists in Britain.
Author:Francis Ghilès, Associate Senior Researcher, CIDOB
Big cities have well-defined strategies for brand consolidation and attracting investment. These global outreach efforts are being rewarded with the mobilisation of major assets for their economies. However, besides this evident beneficial impact, international action also has negative externalities that need to be dealt with and mitigated.
Author:Agustí Fernández de Losada, Director of the Global Cities Programme, CIDOB
As Congress aims to finalize FY 2020 appropriations and as the FY 2021 budget process begins, it should consider new and strengthened investments in global health security to protect the U.S. public from the most pressing health security threats. A global pandemic could have vast human and economic costs. Yet with small, strategic investments in critical areas, we can prepare ourselves for the inevitable.
The French veto on North Macedonia EU membership shows that Brussels urgently needs a new approach to EU enlargement
Milica Delevic, Tena Prelec
Britain helped bring modern, unified, and peaceful Germany into being. Its Brexit convulsions have trashed this historic reputation – probably for good.
Vice President Michael R. Pence delivered the inaugural Frederic V. Malek Public Service Leadership Lecture on the future of the relationship between the United States and China.
Though it prompted angry reactions from senior officials in Tehran, the Turkish attack on Syrian Kurdistan offers both pros and cons for the Islamic Republic – and the potential positives likely outweigh the negatives.
Turkey’s value for the West is not about the good it can offer but the evil it might choose not to spread. In recent years western tolerance of Turkey has stemmed not from appreciation of its advanced democratic culture but from fears of the chaos it can unleash.
By Burak Bekdil
Author: Akinori Tomohara, Aoyama Gakuin University
It is not difficult to prove that antisemitism is an integral part of Western culture. To be clear: this is radically different from saying that all Europeans are antisemites. Yet Western politicians and leaders almost never admit this evident reality about their societies’ cultures.
Rumors of an impending meeting between Iran’s President Rouhani and President Trump have quieted down somewhat amidst the uprisings in Iran and Iraq and the sudden US foreign policy reversal on Syria, which paved the way for Turkey’s incursion and bombardment of northern Syria. The attack has been described by Erdoğan as an offensive against the YPG, and widely condemned as a betrayal by the US of its Kurdish allies. However, while much attention has been paid to the apparently impulsive and uncoordinated last-minute decision to withdraw a small remnant of the US contingent from Syria, few are discussing the events unfolding in Iran and Iraq, with the latest news including Iran’s decision to send 7,500 troops to Iraq.
Turkey, like much of the Middle East, is discovering that what goes around comes around. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan appears to have miscalculated the fallout of what may prove to be a foolhardy intervention in Syria and neglected alternative options that could have strengthened Turkey’s position without sparking the ire of much of the international community. His strategic error is rooted in a policy of decades of denial of Kurdish identity and suppression of Kurdish cultural and political rights that was more likely to fuel conflict than encourage societal cohesion.
The fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989 marked the end not of a historical chapter, but of a paragraph. Although capitalism currently has no rival, it has proven its compatibility with illiberal forces.
Javier Solana, a former EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Secretary-General of NATO, and Foreign Minister of Spain, is currently President of the Esade Center for Global Economy and Geopolitics, Distinguished Fellow at the Brookings Institution, and a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Europe.
The president’s softer approach to criminal gangs just suffered a serious setback in Sinaloa.
Author: Biswajit Dhar, Jawaharlal Nehru University
Tim Summers examines how to de-escalate the situation and balance competing interests in the territory.
The Saudi minister of state for foreign affairs discusses his country’s foreign policy positions and priorities.
In the context of recent developments, this paper reviews US President Donald Trump’s Iran strategy and explores possible pathways to a new nuclear agreement with the Islamic Republic.
Dr Sanam Vakil, Dr Neil Quilliam
Prime Minister Boris Johnson seems to have the momentum to get his Brexit deal over the line – and to follow up with a general election triumph while the electorate are still sighing with relief.
- China has significantly increased its economic, political, and – to a lesser extent – security footprint in the Middle East in the past decade, becoming the biggest trade partner and external investor for many countries in the region.
- China still has a limited appetite for challenging the US-led security architecture in the Middle East or playing a significant role in regional politics.
- Yet the country’s growing economic presence is likely to pull it into wider engagement with the region in ways that could significantly affect European interests.
- Europeans should monitor China’s growing influence on regional stability and political dynamics, especially in relation to sensitive issues such as surveillance technology and arms sales.
- Europeans should increase their engagement with China in the Middle East, aiming to refocus its economic role on constructive initiatives.
Camille Lons (project editor), Jonathan Fulton, Degang Sun, Naser Al-Tamimi
Author: Kerstin Steiner, La Trobe University
Author: Rumi Aoyama, Waseda University
Sino-Russian arrangements for deepening cooperation on surveillance technology codify a process that has been going on for years.
Neel Kashkari discusses U.S. economic growth, monetary policy, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Senior Economics Reporter, CNBC
Panelists discuss the extent of disinformation, its impact on democracy, and what can be done to prevent, mitigate, and stop its spread.
Deputy Director, Center for Business and Human Rights, NYU Stern School of Business; Adjunct Professor of Law, NYU School of Law
Director, Voice of America
Former Undersecretary for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs, U.S. Department of State; Author, Information Wars: How We Lost the Global Battle Against Disinformation, and What We Can Do About It
Editor in Chief, Wired Magazine
Anti-government protests could mean humanitarian crisis in Haiti, a country with a long history of instability.
Companies should disclose instances of cyber-enabled intellectual property theft. Disclosure requirements would give companies greater incentives to protect their intellectual property and allow investors to make better-informed decisions.
Author: Aris Huang, SMERU
Author: Brian Job, University of British Columbia