In evidenza

ASEAN-US Maritime Exercise 2019: Maintaining ASEAN Neutrality (RSIS)

The ASEAN-US maritime security exercise took place on 2-6 September 2019 — following a similar exercise ASEAN held with China in October last year. While this signified growing Sino-US competition in Southeast Asia, it is also an ASEAN attempt to adapt and maintain its relative neutrality amid intensifying great power play.

https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/rsis/asean-us-maritime-exercise-2019-maintaining-asean-neutrality/#.XZck1kYzaUk

Olli Pekka Suorsa

In evidenza

Yet Another Haze Crisis: How Now? (RSIS)

Three main factors cause the Southeast Asian transboundary haze; weather, peatland management and people. The acrid smog may have cleared for now but unless the underlying issues are addressed the recurring haze will have grave implications for health and climate change.

https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/rsis/yet-another-haze-crisis-how-now/#.XZcj-0YzaUk

Johan SaravanamuttuKhor Yu Leng

In evidenza

The Way Forward for WTO Dispute Settlement after the Eleventh Ministerial Conference (CIGI)

In December 2017, trade ministers met in Buenos Aires, Argentina, for the Eleventh Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization (WTO), against the backdrop of crisis in the WTO dispute settlement system. After the meeting achieved only modest outcomes, and none related to dispute settlement, the Centre for International Governance Innovation convened a group of experts in Ottawa for a round table discussion of the way forward to restoring and improving the dispute settlement system.

https://www.cigionline.org/publications/way-forward-wto-dispute-settlement-after-eleventh-ministerial-conference

 

In evidenza

U.S. Military Forces in FY 2020: Navy (CSIS)

The Navy in FY 2020 reflects the priorities of the department as a whole. It sustains the level of readiness built in the FY 2017-FY 2019 budgets and modernizes by increasing the production of existing ships, aircraft, and munition programs. Unlike the other services, the Navy is significantly expanding its force structure.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/us-military-forces-fy-2020-navy

In evidenza

The Changing Face of HIV: Addressing Health Needs Across the Life Course (CSIS)

Thanks to sustained political leadership, unprecedented funding from bilateral and multilateral sources, and the adoption of innovative service delivery approaches in the face of a humanitarian crisis, the world has made considerable progress since the early 2000s in arresting the global HIV/AIDS pandemic.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/changing-face-hiv-addressing-health-needs-across-life-course

In evidenza

The Restoration Surge Brings Us Back to Where We Started . . . Well, Almost (CSIS)

Less than three weeks ago (September 14), news that drone and missile strikes had taken down fully half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production rattled international oil markets. The announcement offset, at least temporarily, overarching concerns over fading economic growth and the expanded threat of a U.S.-China trade war and instead focused global attention on the implications of an extended loss of global spare capacity and the impacts of higher oil prices in the event supply could not be restored quickly.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/restoration-surge-brings-us-back-where-we-started-well-almost

In evidenza

Prospects for Post-ISIS Stabilisation (Chatham House)

The past year has revealed promising signals of renewal in Iraq as the territorial defeat of ISIS was followed by a peaceful transition of power to a newly elected government.

Zena Ali Ahmad, Resident Representative for Iraq, United Nations Development Programme
Raffaella Iodice, Head of Unit, Directorate-General for International Cooperation and Development, European Commission
Omar Mohammed, Founder, Mosul Eye 
Chair: Raya Jalabi, Correspondent, Reuters
In evidenza

The Future of Iraq and the Region (Chatham House)

In order to move past the cycle of collapse and revival that has characterized Iraqi governance since 2003, a new approach is needed to forge a system that responds to the needs of the population, and in so doing, tackles the root causes of conflict.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/file/future-iraq-and-region

Andrew Peek, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iraq and Iran, Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, US Department of State
Abdulaziz Sager, Chairman, Gulf Research Centre
Sanam Vakil, Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House
Chair: Rend al-Rahim, President, Iraq Foundation; Iraqi Ambassador to the United States (2003-05)

In evidenza

The Crisis of Central-Bank Governance (Project-Syndicate)

The European Central Bank may enjoy stronger protection against political pressure than other central banks do, but it also faces unique constraints. The more the ECB is forced to expand its policy remit to meet new economic challenges, the more likely it is to trigger destabilizing political conflicts within the eurozone.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/crisis-of-central-bank-fed-ecb-governance-by-lucrezia-reichlin-2019-10

Lucrezia Reichlin, a former director of research at the European Central Bank, is Professor of Economics at the London Business School.

In evidenza

The Logic of Impeachment Does Not Favor Trump (Project-Syndicate)

The view that Donald Trump would welcome an impeachment fight is a product of White House propaganda and bravado. No US president wants to be impeached, because once the process gets underway, there is no knowing how far it might go.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/logic-of-impeachment-does-not-favor-trump-by-elizabeth-drew-2019-10

Elizabeth Drew is a Washington-based journalist and the author, most recently, of Washington Journal: Reporting Watergate and Richard Nixon’s Downfall.

In evidenza

The Asianized World Has Arrived (Project-Syndicate)

By 2040, Asia is likely to generate more than 50% of world GDP, and could account for nearly 40% of global consumption. This progress reflects the integration of at least four “Asias,” each at a different stage of economic development – and each playing a unique role in propelling the region’s global rise.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/asian-century-economic-rise-regional-integration-by-jonathan-woetzel-and-jeongmin-seong-2019-10

Jonathan Woetzel is a McKinsey senior partner, a director of the McKinsey Global Institute, and co-author of No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends. – Jeongmin Seong is a senior fellow at the McKinsey Global Institute in Shanghai.

In evidenza

Central America’s Turbulent Northern Triangle (CFR)

A surge of migrants from a region known as the Northern Triangle—comprised of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras—has cast a spotlight on a long-suffering part of the world and pushed governments in the region and beyond to reexamine relevant policies.

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/central-americas-turbulent-northern-triangle

 by Amelia Cheatham

In evidenza

The U.S.-Australia Relationship, With Charles Edel and John Lee (CFR)

Charles Edel and John Lee, senior fellows at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre, sit down with James M. Lindsay to discuss the state of the U.S.-Australia alliance. Edel and Lee recently co-authored “The future of the US-Australia alliance in an era of great power competition.”

https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/us-australia-relationship-charles-edel-and-john-lee

In evidenza

Samsung reportedly closes last mobile phone factory in China (Global Times)

South Korean tech giant Samsung, one of the leading smartphone producers in the world, has reportedly closed its last mobile phone factory in China after losing market share in the country amid the fierce business competition from domestic rivals.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1166011.shtml

By Song Lin

In evidenza

China welcomes DPRK and US resuming dialogue: spokesperson (Global Times)

China on Wednesday said it welcomes the statements of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the United States to resume dialogue and hopes the two sides will grasp the opportunity to strive for positive outcomes.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1166012.shtml

In evidenza

African media professionals espy China’s innovation (Global Times)

Participants of the Belt and Road News Network (BRNN) Media Workshop representing 14 African countries visited South China’s Guangdong Province from September 24 to 27, to experience the innovative and high-quality development the coastal province is undergoing.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1165995.shtml

By Li Lei

In evidenza

India’s neighborhood first policy aims at centripetal ties (Global Times)

The National Interest, a US international affairs magazine, recently published an article “This is How India Plans to Keep Its Neighbors Away from China’s Influence.” It argues that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi administration’s “neighborhood first” policy shows the South Asian country’s attempt to counter the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and to maintain strong regional influence.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1165998.shtml

By Zhang Jiadong

In evidenza

China’s success is for everyone to enjoy (Global Times)

In celebrating the 70th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China, 1.4 billion Chinese have found relief provided by the central government as it continues to steer the country in the right economic direction. The results were realized through the government’s efforts in embracing opening-up and reform policies, implementing public welfare programs, partnering with as many countries as possible, and avoiding a zero-sum game with the US.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1166002.shtml

By Wen Sheng

In evidenza

Accelerating the Emergence and Development of Innovation Ecosystems through Procurement: A Toolkit (WEF)

This toolkit presents a framework to understand the opportunities available for using procurement to accelerate the creation of inclusive innovation ecosystems. From inspiring individuals to participate in the innovation ecosystem to cultivating the competitiveness of innovators and smoothing their entry into new markets, procurement plays an important role.

https://www.weforum.org/whitepapers/accelerating-the-emergence-and-development-of-innovation-ecosystems-through-procurement-a-toolkit

 

In evidenza

EV-Ready India Part 1: Value Chain Analysis of State EV Policies (WEF)

India is charged to be a global hotspot for electric mobility. Over the last few years, the national government has created momentum through several policies that incentivise adoption. Following suit, ten States and Union Territories (UT) have published their draft EV policies or notified their final policies detailing fiscal, non-fiscal, other incentives to accelerate a value-chain of electric mobility activities. State government policies are empowered to design options based on localised objectives, assets, and needs. This is evident in the varied approaches taken by 10 States and UTs. While the varied approaches are understandable, a common framework for gauging the sustainability and longevity of EV policies across India is necessary for policymakers, businesses and practitioners alike.

This White paper uses a Value Chain Framework to analyse the EV policies in 10 Indian States. The Value Chain framework pays attention to the multisectoral and multistakeholder aspects of EV-policies – separated into three different value chains; the value chain of electric vehicles, the value chain of charging, and the value chain of the surrounding network. It ensures that overall sustainability is considered from cradle to grave.

https://www.weforum.org/whitepapers/ev-ready-india-part-1-value-chain-analysis-of-state-ev-policies

In evidenza

The South Asia Risks Landscape (WEF)

The South Asia Risks Landscape comes as South Asia is growing rapidly and positioning itself to exert more geopolitical influence but also faces risks in the form of climate crises—particularly relating to water—and country-level governance and economic challenges.

The paper incorporates data from the World Economic Forum’s Executive Opinion Survey 2019, which polled business leaders in five South Asian countries: Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka. It also uses data from the Forum’s Global Risks Perception Survey 2018-2019, which polled experts and decision-makers around the world.

The survey results, together with additional qualitative research, point to a region that can build resiliency by promoting greater connectivity and cooperation.

https://www.weforum.org/whitepapers/the-south-asia-risks-landscape

In evidenza

Regional Risks for Doing Business 2019 (WEF)

The world in 2019 is more intertwined and complex than ever before. While interconnections have brought stability in past decades, tightly wound systems are becoming more vulnerable. Across every realm – cyber, environmental, economic, geopolitical, societal – we are seeing fraying threads in the fabric that cloaks society. The World Economic Forum’s global risks work serves to signal which threads, when pulled, could lead to an unraveling of entire systems.

The Regional Risks for Doing Business report offers a business perspective on the impact of global risks and illustrates how they are experienced differently in each region. In today’s fraught geopolitical context, regional coordination is increasingly important. We publish this report with the hope that it will help shape each region’s agenda vis-à-vis the global risks landscape, moving the needle for regions aiming to play an increasingly pivotal role in the years ahead.

https://www.weforum.org/reports/regional-risks-for-doing-business-2019

In evidenza

Argentina Must Not Waste Its Crisis (Project-Syndicate)

To explain Argentina’s chronic instability and episodic illiquidity, one must look beyond idiosyncratic leaders, temporary external shocks, and specific policy mistakes. The answer lies in the country’s political system, which has failed to cement institutions that can support long-term development.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/argentina-crisis-new-economic-reforms-by-kemal-dervis-and-sebasti-n-strauss-2019-10

Kemal Derviş, former Minister of Economic Affairs of Turkey and former Administrator for the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), is Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution – Sebastián Strauss is a senior research analyst and Coordinator for Strategic Engagements at the Brookings Institution. Follow him on Twitter

In evidenza

Is Post-Brexit London Really Doomed? (Project-Syndicate)

Despite the likelihood of a harder-than-expected Brexit, and the certain loss of the so-called passport, which would allow financial services to be sold freely across the EU, the feared large-scale exodus of firms and financiers from London does not seem to be under way. Why?

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/will-london-financial-center-survive-brexit-by-howard-davies-2019-10

Howard Davies, the first chairman of the United Kingdom’s Financial Services Authority (1997-2003), is Chairman of the Royal Bank of Scotland. He was Director of the London School of Economics (2003-11) and served as Deputy Governor of the Bank of England and Director-General of the Confederation of British Industry

In evidenza

A New Eurafrican Partnership (Project-Syndicate)

To build a peaceful and prosperous future, African and European leaders must agree on a forward-looking strategy that addresses structural imbalances, harnesses the benefits of migration, and delivers tangible benefits to their citizens. Such a strategy should rest on four pillars.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/eu-africa-cooperation-jobs-migration-by-ellen-j-sirleaf-et-al-2019-10

Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, is a former president of the Republic of Liberia – Mo Ibrahim is Chair and Founder of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation – Etienne Davignon is a former vice president of the European Commission, President of Friends of Europe, and Belgium’s minister of state

In evidenza

The Silent Suffering of Climate Migrants (Project-Syndicate)

Climate disasters have forced millions of people across South Asia into extremely precarious, inhuman conditions, without the robust global recognition and protection they desperately need. Instead of leaving climate migrants to continue suffering in silence, the world must give them the right to survive and prosper.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/bangladesh-climate-disasters-displaced-persons-by-md-shahidul-haque-and-m-riaz-hamidullah

Md. Shahidul Haque, former Chair of the Global Forum on Migration and Development, is Foreign Secretary of Bangladesh – M. Riaz Hamidullah is High Commissioner of Bangladesh to Sri Lanka

In evidenza

Cities in World Politics. Local Responses to Global Challenges (CIDOB)

Urbanisation is one of the most powerful trends of the modern era. Since 2007, for the first time in history over half the world’s population lives in cities, a proportion the United Nations estimates will rise to two-thirds by 2050. Much of this urban growth will take place in Africa and Asia, but other regions will also be deeply affected.

The realisation that our future will be predominantly urban has bestowed unprecedented relevance on cities and urban regions in world politics. Over the past two decades there has been a progressive urban turn in global development policy, which acknowledges that today’s major challenges – from climate change to inequality – are concentrated in cities and that urban governance is essential to remedying them. The culmination of this policy trend is the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which includes a dedicated goal on inclusive, resilient and sustainable cities and 169 targets that nearly all depend on the actions of local governments.

We are witnessing profound transformations in global governance, in which cities are transitioning from being seen as local problem hotspots or strategic sites for intervention, towards being active drivers of positive change. This book seeks to contribute to an emerging debate on how cities are evolving into global political actors engaged in taking on responsibilities that were previously the preserve of nation-states, especially in the areas of climate change, migration and sustainable urban development.

https://www.cidob.org/en/publications/publication_series/monographs/monographs/cities_in_world_politics_local_responses_to_global_challenges

Author:Hannah Abdullah (ed.), Researcher and Project Manager, CIDOB

In evidenza

Borderscapes: Securitarian Production, Experience and (im)mobility (Spain, Europe and Latin America) (CIDOB)

Borders contain and roll-out securitarian logic of control that embodies the potential of state power to produce social stratifications and regulate processes of membership and exclusion. Issue 122 of Revista CIDOB d’Afers Internacionals offers two novel perspectives on the subject: a) certain aspects of the border regime are analysed that have had limited examination in the social sciences field – such as study of the effects of the EU’s so-called internal borders; and b) as bordering is garnering attention in various academic fields the desire is expressed to establish interdisciplinary dialogue about borders and their management regimes. Out of this dialogue, the border is addressed as a space and process that aims to regulate, monitor and condition mobility within a discursive framework that repeatedly reinforces security rhetoric.

https://www.cidob.org/en/publications/publication_series/revista_cidob_d_afers_internacionals/borderscapes_securitarian_production_experience_and_im_mobility_spain_europe_and_latin_america

Author:Ignacio Mendiola and José Ángel Brandariz , Scientific Coordinators

In evidenza

Oil and Gas Industry Engagement on Climate Change (CSIS)

The most important strategic issue facing the energy industry today is climate change. As the earth’s average temperature continues to rise with the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the stable functioning of earth’s natural systems adjusts to the new, high-carbon reality and society begins to witness the effects of an altered natural environment and its impact on our lives and livelihoods. Most greenhouse gas emissions are caused by human activity, including the burning of fossil fuels. This reality demands a change to our energy system. Given this threat, governments are increasingly enacting policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and investors in companies that sell fossil fuels are putting increasing pressure on management to show how they will navigate an energy system in transition. In addition, the economics of renewable energy are becoming increasingly attractive, creating potential alternatives to fossil fuels. Facing all of these drivers, some oil and gas companies are strategizing to become “energy companies,” adapting to this global energy transition. This report, based on research and a workshop held at CSIS in February 2019 with industry, investors, academics, and environmental groups, attempts to explore how oil and gas companies are taking action to address climate change, how these actions fit with the overall needs of the energy transition, and whether there is more companies can do to contribute to the solution set of this problem.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/oil-and-gas-industry-engagement-climate-change

In evidenza

Gas Line Q3 2019 (CSIS)

Gas Line is a quarterly publication that looks at major news stories in global gas—ranging from project development to markets and geopolitics. My goal is not to cover every story but to draw connections between stories across time and space in order to shed light on the major themes that will drive global gas markets in the years ahead.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/gas-line-q3-2019

In evidenza

Scoring the Trump-Abe Trade Deal (CSIS)

U.S. president Donald Trump and Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe initialed a bilateral trade agreement on September 25 on the margins of the UN General Assembly meeting in New York. The consensus view in Washington is that the “mini-deal” gave President Trump most of what he wanted, while Prime Minister Abe got almost nothing. This gives Trump too much credit and Abe not enough.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/scoring-trump-abe-trade-deal

In evidenza

How Germany Can Benefit from the Global Compact for Migration (SWP)

In December 2018, 152 United Nations (UN) member states adopted the Global Com­pact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration. The document sets out 23 objectives that guide countries of origin, transit and destination in how to deal with the chal­lenges arising in the context of international migration and forced displacement. If practical progress is to be made in the management and organisation of global migra­tion flows, this requires a twofold commitment – internal and external – on the part of the states involved. The German government – just like other governments inter­ested in effective, sustainable and coherent migration policies – should use the Com­pact to identify further needs for internal reform and to win international partners for strategically selected key issues. The Compact’s review process, the core of which is the International Migration Review Forum (IMRF), provides an opportunity for both.

https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/publication/how-germany-can-benefit-from-the-global-compact-for-migration/

Steffen AngenendtAnne Koch

In evidenza

Mozambique Still At Risk (SWP)

In early August 2019 the president of Mozambique and the leader of the largest oppo­si­tion party signed a new peace agreement. This has revived the peace process between the Mozambican National Resistance (RENAMO) and the Mozambique Liberation Front (FRELIMO), which has been in power since 1994. Great challenges remain, such as the disarmament and reintegration of RENAMO fighters.

https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/publication/mozambique-despite-the-peace-process-a-serious-crisis-looms/

Melanie MüllerJudith Vorrath

In evidenza

Shifting Boundaries of the EU’s Foreign and Security Policy (swp)

 Europe’s foreign and security policy needs to become more effective. To this end, the executive autonomy of European governments should be maximised, and legal constraints from EU law minimised – this view is only seemingly plausible. Only an EU foreign and security policy anchored in the rule of law based on the EU treaties is realistic and sustain­able.

 The EU is under pressure to meet human rights standards on the one hand, and demands to limit migration on the other. Three trends are evident: First, the EU is making new arrangements with third countries to control migration; second, it is using CFSP/CSDP missions to secure borders; third, the EU agencies Frontex and Europol are increasingly operating in the EU neighbourhood.

 Current trends in EU foreign and security policy pose a challenge to the protection of fundamental rights. For example, CSDP missions such as the EU operation “Sophia” in the Mediterranean are largely exempt from judicial review by the Court of Justice of the European Union.

 Lawsuits have already been filed with the European Court of Human Rights and the International Criminal Court against Italy and the EU for aiding and abetting human rights violations in Libya. Anyone who does not respect international law also threatens the rule of law at home. This also applies to the EU.

 The EU should resume the process of formal accession to the European Convention on Human Rights. The legal limits and performance of the EU’s foreign and security policy would be made clearer. The German Coun­cil Presidency in 2020 should place the rule of law at the heart of European foreign and security policy.

https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/publication/shifting-boundaries-of-the-eus-foreign-and-security-policy/

Annegret BendiekRaphael Bossong

In evidenza

EU–US Cooperation on Tackling Disinformation (Chatham House)

Disinformation, as the latest iteration of propaganda suitable for a digitally interconnected world, shows no signs of abating. This paper provides a holistic overview of the current state of play and outlines how EU and US cooperation can mitigate disinformation in the future.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/eu-us-cooperation-tackling-disinformation

Sophia Ignatidou

In evidenza

Sudan Stakeholder Dialogues: Options for Economic Stabilization, Recovery and Inclusive Growth (Chatham House)

The Chatham House Africa Programme designed the Sudan Stakeholder Dialogues series to help identify the factors that have led to the current economic crisis, the immediate steps that need to be taken to avert collapse and stabilize the economy, and the longer-term structural reforms required to set Sudan on the path to recovery. The project is funded by Humanity United.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/sudan-stakeholder-dialogues-options-economic-stabilization-recovery-and-inclusive-growth

Ahmed Soliman

In evidenza

In Judging Prorogation, UK Supreme Court Marks Evolution, Not Revolution, in Law (Chatham House)

Despite the political significance, last week’s judgment does not signal a newly activist court.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/judging-prorogation-uk-supreme-court-marks-evolution-not-revolution-law

Ruma Mandal

In evidenza

Inside Macron’s Russia Initiative (Project-Syndicate)

By pursuing an ambitious new initiative to “ease and clarify” the European Union’s relationship with Russia, French President Emmanuel Macron is seeking to secure Europe’s control over its own future. But his plan will succeed only if he can ensure that no EU member state feels vulnerable.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/macron-russia-diplomacy-eu-security-strategy-by-mark-leonard-2019-10

Mark Leonard is Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

In evidenza

The IMF After Argentina (Project-Syndicate)

It’s high time to ask how to refocus the International Monetary Fund’s mandate for dealing with emerging-market debt crises. How can the IMF be effective in helping countries regain access to private credit markets when any attempt to close unsustainable budget deficits is labeled austerity?

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/lessons-from-latest-argentina-meltdown-by-kenneth-rogoff-2019-10

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. The co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, his new book, The Curse of Cash, was released in August 2016.

In evidenza

Can Cyberwarfare Be Regulated? (Project-Syndicate)

In the cyber realm, the same program can be used for legitimate or malicious purposes, depending on the user’s intent. But if that makes traditional arms-control treaties impossible to verify, it may still be possible to set limits on certain types of civilian targets and negotiate rough rules of the road that limit conflict.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/can-cyberwarfare-be-regulated-by-joseph-s-nye-2019-10

Joseph S. Nye, Jr. is a professor at Harvard University and author of Is the American Century Over? and the forthcoming Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump.

In evidenza

The Issue Behind Our Issues (Project-Syndicate)

Many commentators nowadays rely on a narrative in which weak productivity growth, populism, and a rising China are threatening the very survival of Western liberal democracy. Yet most of the commonly identified causes of Western discontent are in fact symptoms of a deeper intellectual breakdown.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/intellectual-breakdown-driving-economic-political-shifts-by-jim-o-neill-2019-10

Jim O’Neill, a former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and a former UK Treasury Minister, is Chair of Chatham House.

In evidenza

The instinctive multilateralist: Portugal and the politics of cooperation (ECFR)

  • The Portuguese people believe that their country’s fate is inextricably tied to that of the European Union.
  • A survey carried out ahead of the Portuguese national election suggests that the Portuguese bounced back quickly from a surge in Euroscepticism linked to the strict conditions of Portugal’s 2011 bailout package.
  • Portugal values the economic benefits of EU membership primarily, but its people believe in the EU as more than just an economic project.
  • The Portuguese are instinctive multilateralists, and hope that the bloc can help them tackle the challenges of globalisation: from climate change to cooperation on the impact of freedom of movement on Europe.

https://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/instinctive_multilateralist_portugal_politics_cooperation

Susi Dennison and Lívia Franco

In evidenza

While Hong Kong is sick, Macao is getting healthier (Global Times)

While Hong Kong is struggling from months of violent street protests, events in Macao, another special administrative region of China, are quickly leading the Greater Bay Area to new heights — from medicine to regional economic and cultural cooperation.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1165970.shtml

By Christopher Cottrell

In evidenza

70 years: China’s contributions to the world (Global Times)

China has spent 70 years exploring a suitable road for its development, and it has simultaneously spent those 70 years continuously contributing to global progress. Since China’s reform and opening-up began in 1978, the country has experienced rapid and sustained economic growth.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1165930.shtml

By Wu Jinduo

In evidenza

Corruption Continues to Destabilize Iraq (Chatham House)

After the defeat of ISIS, endemic corruption is now the main threat to Iraq’s stability, alienating the population from its ruling elite and driving young people into a protest movement that demands radical change.
Toby Dodge
In evidenza

The PRC Turns 70 (CSIS)

As President Donald Trump and other world leaders gathered for the United Nations General Assembly in New York this week, Xi Jinping, the general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), decided to skip the event and remain in Beijing, where he presided over a meeting of the powerful Political Bureau (Politburo) to discuss efforts to boost patriotism in China.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/prc-turns-70

In evidenza

Enhancing U.S. Leadership in a New Era of Global Immunization (CSIS)

The U.S. government plays a leading role in supporting immunization services worldwide, an investment that helps increase global stability and prosperity while protecting Americans from potentially epidemic-prone diseases. While tremendous progress has been made in improving vaccine coverage, momentum has stalled over the last decade. New approaches are needed to reach populations that chronically lack access to health services and those in volatile and conflict-affected settings. The authors offer recommendations to enhance U.S. policy as key global immunization partners are developing new strategies to expand global vaccine coverage.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/enhancing-us-leadership-new-era-global-immunization

In evidenza

UN Report Paints a Bleak Outlook for the World’s Oceans and Coastal Areas (CSIS)

This week the UN held a Climate Action Summit designed to encourage greater action on the part of world leaders to address the causes and impacts of climate change.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/un-report-paints-bleak-outlook-worlds-oceans-and-coastal-areas

In evidenza

What’s Right About France’s Overtures Toward Russia? (Project-Syndicate)

French President Emmanuel Macron’s new policy of engagement toward Russia carries significant risks – not least because Russia persists in the behaviors that caused its relations with Europe to deteriorate in the first place. But seeking a rapprochement makes more sense than persisting with failed Western efforts at containment.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/emmanuel-macron-france-russia-reset-by-dominique-moisi-2019-09

Dominique Moisi is a special adviser at the Institut Montaigne in Paris. He is the author of La Géopolitique des Séries ou le triomphe de la peur.

In evidenza

ISIS 2.0 and the Information War (Project-Syndicate)

The Islamic State (ISIS) has launched a new worldwide communications offensive, enabling the group to contest the global view that it has been defeated following the collapse of its caliphate. In doing so, ISIS has created a digital battlespace in which an online narrative of victory can translate into success on the ground.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/america-islamic-state-information-war-by-anne-marie-slaughter-and-asha-c-castleberry-2019-09

Anne-Marie Slaughter, a former director of policy planning in the US State Department (2009-2011), is CEO of the think tank New America, Professor Emerita of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, and the author of Unfinished Business: Women Men Work Family.

Asha C. Castleberry, a US Army combat veteran, is a professor of foreign policy and national security at George Washington University and Term Member at the Council on Foreign Relations.

In evidenza

The Hollow Consensus on the Amazon (Project-Syndicate)

The apparent unanimity on the need to prevent the Amazon’s annihilation is built on empty rhetoric. Brazil’s current political leaders talk of defending the rainforest, but do nothing to change the predatory development model that is destroying it.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/brazil-amazon-rainforest-hollow-consensus-by-marina-silva-2019-09

Marina Silva is a politician and environmentalist.

In evidenza

The Mainstreaming of Corruption (Project-Syndicate)

Unethical behavior by populist parties across the West has forced traditional parties to abandon their own moral standards. And the evidence suggests that if mainstream politicians want to try to beat populists at their own corrupt game, their supporters will reward them for it.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/populism-mainstreaming-of-corruption-by-slawomir-sierakowski-2019-09

Sławomir Sierakowski, founder of the Krytyka Polityczna movement, is Director of the Institute for Advanced Study in Warsaw and Senior Fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations.

In evidenza

Whether fighting climate change, promoting scientific discovery or pursuing economic stability, China should act like a transparent global power (South China Morning Post)

China has not only restored its traditional position at the head of the Asian order but has become a truly global power. However, this status carries with it certain responsibilities and expectations, including being transparent and open

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3030281/whether-fighting-climate-change-promoting-scientific-discovery-or

Andrei Lungu

In evidenza

Hong Kong is being dragged into the US-China trade war when it should be a bystander (South China Morning Post)

Hong Kong’s protests have given it international prominence but the city – and its special economic status with the US – should not become a weapon in the US trade conflict with China

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3030322/hong-kong-being-dragged-us-china-trade-war-when-it-should-be

Bernard Chan

In evidenza

Why invoking Hong Kong’s oppressive, outdated Emergency Regulations Ordinance won’t stop the protest violence (South China Morning Post)

  • Existing laws already give the government broad powers to ban assemblies, introduce curfews, and protect the airport and MTR stations
  • Invoking draconian emergency powers to push through a controversial anti-mask law or ban social media is likely to contravene Hong Kong’s Bill of Rights and only deepen the mistrust of authority

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3030170/why-invoking-hong-kongs-oppressive-outdated-emergency-regulations

C.M. Chan

In evidenza

Sudden shift in the normally calm US cash markets doesn’t signal a new credit crunch (South China Morning Post)

The recent ‘pipe blockage’ in the US financial system caused fears of a bigger problem with the Fed’s balance sheet. But, sometimes supply and demand don’t match and, on this occasion, the mismatch was simply greater than expected and was fixed

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3030468/sudden-shift-normally-calm-us-cash-markets-doesnt-signal-new-credit

Kerry Craig

In evidenza

Under ‘one world, two systems’, US companies that stay in China must evolve (South China Morning Post)

More US companies are staying in China than are deciding to leave, despite Donald Trump’s trade war rhetoric. But there is an increasing need to devise different strategies, as China’s market conditions become more sophisticated and unique

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3030158/under-one-world-two-systems-us-companies-stay-china-must-evolve

Edward TseBill Russo

In evidenza

Not Contributing Enough? A Summary of European Military and Development Assistance to Ukraine Since 2014 (CSIS)

President Trump has stated that one of the reasons to withhold $250 million of U.S. military assistance to Ukraine was due to the lack of European and other nations’ contributions to Ukraine. How much has Europe been providing to Ukraine since Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and military incursions into the Donbas (Eastern Ukraine) in 2014? It is estimated that two-thirds of aid to Ukraine comes from European countries.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/not-contributing-enough-summary-european-military-and-development-assistance-ukraine-2014

In evidenza

The Universal Postal Union Lives to Mail Another Day (CSIS)

https://www.csis.org/analysis/universal-postal-union-lives-mail-another-day

In evidenza

Saving Pacific Islanders from Geoengineering (Project-Syndicate)

For Pacific islanders, who are on the frontlines of a climate crisis to which they have barely contributed, the persistently selfish and short-sighted approach of the world’s major emitters has gone from disappointing to frustrating to infuriating. Betting on geoengineering would only make matters worse.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/pacific-islanders-climate-change-geoengineering-by-francois-martel-2019-09

François Martel is Secretary General of the Pacific Islands Development Forum.

In evidenza

America’s Argentina Risk (Project-Syndicate)

Argentina was one of the world’s richest economies in the first few decades of the twentieth century, but subsequently became a cautionary tale of how a wealthy country can lose its way. By peddling policies that bring about short-term highs at a huge long-run cost, US President Donald Trump risks taking America down a similar path.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/america-donald-trump-argentina-risk-by-kaushik-basu-2019-09

Kaushik Basu, former Chief Economist of the World Bank and former Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India, is Professor of Economics at Cornell University and Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution.

In evidenza

Britain’s Constitutional Guardians Strike Back (Project-Syndicate)

The UK Parliament and Supreme Court should be seen as the vanguard of resistance to populism. Rather than yielding to some concocted “will of the people,” these institutions have emphasized that some principles are beyond majoritarian whims.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/uk-supreme-court-upholds-parliamentary-sovereignty-by-nicholas-reed-langen-2019-09

Nicholas Reed Langen writes on the British Constitution for The Justice Gap, and is an education consultant.

In evidenza

Lagarde’s Edge Is Europe’s Opportunity (Project-Syndicate)

The eurozone economy urgently needs a more comprehensive pro-growth policy approach at both the national and regional levels, or else a second lost decade will be all but assured. Hope for the continent now rests squarely on the shoulders of Christine Lagarde, the highly accomplished incoming president of the European Central Bank.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/lagarde-ecb-eurozone-economy-by-mohamed-a-el-erian-2019-09

Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he served as CEO and co-Chief Investment Officer, was Chairman of US President Barack Obama’s Global Development Council. He is President Elect of Queens’ College (Cambridge University), senior adviser at Gramercy, and Part-time Practice Professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. He previously served as CEO of the Harvard Management Company and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund. He was named one of Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers four years running. He is the author, most recently, of The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse.

In evidenza

A Conversation With Minister Adel al-Jubeir of Saudi Arabia (CFR)

For further reading, please see the CFR In Brief “Trump’s Iran-Saudi Arabia Dilemma” by Philip H. Gordon, the CFR blog post “Scale and Nature of Attacks on Saudi Oil Makes This One Different” by Amy M. Jaffe, and the CFR quiz “See How Much You Know About Saudi Arabia.”

https://www.cfr.org/event/conversation-minister-adel-al-jubeir-saudi-arabia-0

Adel al-Jubeir

Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Saudi Arabia

In evidenza

A Conversation With Prime Minister Imran Khan of Pakistan (CFR)

Prime Minister Imran Khan discusses the current state of U.S.-Pakistan relations, recent developments in the disputed region of Kashmir, and Pakistan’s relationship with India, Afghanistan, and other neighboring countries.

https://www.cfr.org/event/conversation-prime-minister-imran-khan-pakistan-0

Imran Khan

Prime Minister, Pakistan

In evidenza

C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics With Sabine Lautenschläger (CFR)

Sabine Lautenschläger discusses Eurozone conditions and the European Central Bank’s economic tools, as well as the effects of U.S. trade policy on the global economy.

https://www.cfr.org/event/c-peter-mccolough-series-international-economics-sabine-lautenschlager

Sabine Lautenschläger

Member, Executive Board, European Central Bank

In evidenza

Strategic Decision-Making During Cyber Conflict: The SingHealth Case (RSIS)

Cyber technology enables countries to act covertly. Furthermore, it is not always easy to identify who is behind a given attack. So, what leads countries that were victims of cyberattacks to reveal the incidents?

https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/cens/strategic-decision-making-during-cyber-conflict-the-singhealth-case/#.XYItFygzaUk

Gil BaramUdi Sommer

In evidenza

UN Climate Action Summit: Unlocking the Paris Agreement (RSIS)

Article 6 of the Paris Agreement holds the key to ground-up cooperation involving multiple stakeholders from governments, businesses, the private sector, and civil society.

https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/rsis/un-climate-action-summit-unlocking-the-paris-agreement/#.XYIsPSgzaUk

Sharon Seah

In evidenza

US-China Trade War: The Guns of August (PIIE)

August, which is supposed to be a somnolent month, has erupted in 2019 in a blaze of threats and tariff escalations. At times, President Donald Trump’s trade war with China has seemed like it was spinning out of control. A pivotal moment occurred August 23 when China announced details of its long-anticipated retaliation to Trump’s newest tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese imports. Trump’s immediate response was for yet another round of his own tariffs and a bizarre directive to US companies to pull out of China.

https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/us-china-trade-war-guns-august

Chad P. Bown (PIIE)

In evidenza

A Drop in Tourism Is Threatening Hong Kong’s Economy (PIIE)

Racked by antigovernment protests since June 2019, Hong Kong is on the brink of recession. Its economy contracted by 0.4 percent in real terms in the second quarter of 2019 over the preceding quarter. If this trend has continued in the third quarter, Hong Kong might have already fallen into a technical recession,[1] as the territory’s financial secretary has warned. A leading cause of its economic troubles is the well-publicized plunge in the tourism industry

https://www.piie.com/blogs/china-economic-watch/drop-tourism-threatening-hong-kongs-economy

Tianlei Huang (PIIE)

In evidenza

Hong Kong still has the edge over Shenzhen and other Chinese cities, despite the protests (South China Morning Post)

  • Any plan to sideline the defiant former British colony ignores the central role the financial hub plays for China’s economy
  • Its rule of law and various freedoms, attributes of an open economy, have become even more valuable now amid the US-China trade war

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3027593/hong-kong-still-has-edge-over-shenzhen-and-other-chinese-cities

Cary Huang

In evidenza

Controversial lawmaker Junius Ho holds Hong Kong racing hostage – and there are no winners (South China Morning Post)

  • The pro-establishment politician creates a chaotic situation that puts the Jockey Club between a rock and a hard place
  • Given the precedence and likely sentiment, is the Chinese National Day meeting on October 1 in doubt too?

https://www.scmp.com/sport/article/3027920/controversial-lawmaker-junius-ho-holds-hong-kong-racing-hostage-and-there-are

Tom Biddington

In evidenza

Hong Kong’s protesters can’t count on Donald Trump – he wants Asia to solve its own problems (South China Morning Post)

Just as some young protesters have adopted the American flag as a symbol of their hopes, US Asia policy is changing. If the Trump administration’s stance on Korea is any indication, he will keep a hands-off approach to Hong Kong

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026885/hong-kongs-protesters-cant-count-donald-trump-he-wants-asia-solve

Brian P. Klein

In evidenza

Donald Trump is waking up to the fact that ending the trade war with China will help him win in 2020 (South China Morning Post)

The US president has figured he needs a deal with China to soften the economic impact the trade war is having on his voter base, particularly in the key swing states that helped propel him to power in 2016

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3027571/donald-trump-waking-fact-ending-trade-war-china-will-help-him-win

Neal Kimberley

In evidenza

Research Collaboration in an Era of Strategic Competition (CSIS)

There is a growing concern in Washington that certain aspects of international scientific collaboration pose a risk to U.S. economic and national security, making it the latest front in rising U.S.-China competition. At the same time, the U.S. innovation ecosystem depends greatly on foreign scientists and partnerships with foreign research institutions. A well-calibrated strategy to manage these risks will maximize openness while protecting intellectual property, research integrity, and national security. These efforts should preserve the ability of the United States to attract top talent, including by maintaining a welcoming environment for foreign researchers, while improving domestic investment in science, technology, engineering, and math outcomes. This report outlines the vulnerabilities arising from foreign research collaboration, the risks of policy overreach, and recommendations to manage risks while maintaining scientific openness.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/research-collaboration-era-strategic-competition

Stephanie Segal, Dylan Gerstel

In evidenza

Is Erdoğan Solely Responsible for Turkish Foreign Policy? (BESA Center)

Many believe Turkey will return to “Western normality” as soon as Recep Tayyip Erdoğan finishes his political career. But Turkey’s behavior is influenced by the systemic restructuring of the international arena after the end of the Cold War more than it is by Erdoğan’s aura, as was apparent in the 1990s prior to his advent. It is unwise to anticipate a significant change in Turkish foreign policy once Erdoğan leaves the scene.+

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/turkey-erdogan-foreign-policy/

By 

In evidenza

Strengthening Land Rights Will Curb Migration (Project-Syndicate)

What the US faces on its southern border is not a security problem, but a humanitarian crisis, and punishing attempts at deterrence cannot resolve it. Enabling people to stay where they are requires, first and foremost, strengthening their right to be there.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/stronger-land-rights-will-curb-migration-by-chris-jochnick-2019-09

Chris Jochnick, CEO and President of Landesa, is the co-founder and former director of the Center for Economic and Social Rights and the Ecuador-based Centros De Derechos Economicos y Sociales

In evidenza

Islands of Climate Ambition (Project-Syndicate)

Small island states such as Fiji and Jamaica are using innovative approaches to tackle the existential threat posed by climate change. Developed countries must do more to help them and other islands – including by leading the global effort to mobilize climate finance.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/small-island-states-climate-change-by-andrew-holness-and-frank-bainimarama-2019-09

Andrew Holness is Prime Minister of Jamaica

Frank Bainimarama is Prime Minister of Fiji

In evidenza

Brexit House of Cards (Project-Syndicate)

Following British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s suspension of Parliament, and an appeals court ruling declaring that act unlawful, the United Kingdom finds itself in a state of political frenzy. With rational decision-making having become all but impossible, any new political agreement that emerges is likely to be both temporary and deeply flawed.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/brexit-boris-johnson-european-union-deal-by-mark-malloch-brown-2019-09

Mark Malloch-Brown, a member of the House of Lords, is a political adviser and Chairman of Best for Britain, which campaigns for the UK remain in the EU.

In evidenza

Could Ultra-Low Interest Rates Be Contractionary? (Project-Syndicate)

Although low interest rates have traditionally been viewed as positive for economic growth because they encourage businesses to invest in enhancing productivity, this may not be the case. Instead, extremely low rates may lead to slower growth by increasing market concentration and thus weakening firms’ incentive to boost productivity.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/why-ultra-low-interest-rates-hurt-growth-by-ernest-liu-et-al-2019-09

Ernest Liu is a professor at the Bendheim Center for Finance at Princeton University.

Atif Mian is Professor of Economics, Public Policy, and Finance at Princeton University, Director of the Julis-Rabinowitz Center for Public Policy and Finance at the Woodrow Wilson School, and co-author of House of Debt.

Amir Sufi, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, is the co-author of House of Debt.

In evidenza

An EU “Green New Deal” Requires a Far Higher Price on Carbon (PIIE)

Taxing carbon is probably the most effective way of curbing greenhouse gases that cause climate change. But because taxing carbon emissions will raise gasoline and other energy costs for households and industry, it may be the most politically treacherous step any government can take. Undaunted, Europe should forge ahead with an ambitious plan to make the cost of using fossil fuels effectively exorbitant. The economic impact on Europe would be enormous. But Europe’s actions could also have a significant impact on the United States.

https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/eu-green-new-deal-requires-far-higher-price-carbon

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE)

In evidenza

Trade Talks Episode 101: Huawei, National Security, and the Trade War (PIIE)

Yuan Yang (Financial Times) joins to explain the allegations and complications surrounding Chinese telecom equipment maker Huawei. They discuss alleged risks to national security, IP theft, unfair trade, sanctions violations, export controls, the entity list, and more.

https://www.piie.com/experts/peterson-perspectives/trade-talks-episode-101-huawei-national-security-and-trade-war

Featuring Soumaya Keynes (The Economist) and Chad P. Bown (PIIE)

In evidenza

Finally a Trade Debate, Sort Of (CSIS)

The Democratic presidential candidates’ debate last Thursday finally featured an actual discussion of trade policy, although, typically for television, it was too short and too focused on a single hot-button issue: China tariffs. It also turned out to be not very enlightening.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/finally-trade-debate-sort

William Reinsch

In evidenza

The Strategic Implications of the Strikes on Saudi Arabia (CSIS)

Israel’s inability to thwart Hamas on the Gaza front, even as it persistently worsens the lives of the 20,000 Israeli citizens who live in the “Gaza envelope,” is a national shame. Yet PM Benjamin Netanyahu is correct that this pain must be borne as Israel focuses on the Iranian threat and Israel’s northern front.

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/israel-tolerate-hamas/

Anthony H. Cordesman

In evidenza

Pétrole : les drones attaquent, le baril flambe (IFRI)

Une attaque de drones ou de missiles a provoqué des incendies dévastateurs dans deux importantes installations pétrolières du géant public Aramco, en Arabie Saoudite, premier pays exportateur mondial d’or noir, ce samedi 14 septembre. Cette frappe aérienne a été revendiquée par les rebelles houthistes du Yémen, soutenus par les Iraniens. Les conséquences économiques et diplomatiques sont préoccupantes : le cours du pétrole a fortement augmenté et les tensions entre les États-Unis et l’Iran sont toujours aussi vives.

https://www.ifri.org/fr/debats/petrole-drones-attaquent-baril-flambe

Marc-Antoine EYL-MAZZEGA, invité de Caroline Roux dans “C dans l’air” sur France 5

In evidenza

Australia’s China-threat wave indicates a nation eager to play US pawn role (Global Times)

The Bolt Report on Sky News Australia on the night of September 10 was almost like “a bully’s report,” where ultra-conservative anchor Andrew Bolt intimidated and interrogated Gladys Liu, the first Chinese-born female Liberal Federal MP from Chisholm in Victoria, South-eastern Australia, on her social affiliation and connection with a few Australian-Chinese associations.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1164635.shtml

By Chen Hong

In evidenza

Back to Little England? (Project-Syndicate)

The United Kingdom’s bid to withdraw from the European Union is typically characterized as a dramatic manifestation of British nationalism. In fact, it has almost nothing to do with Britain, and everything to do with English national identity, which has been wandering in the wilderness ever since the fall of Pax Britannica.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/brexit-little-england-nationalism-by-edoardo-campanella-2019-09

Edoardo Campanella is a Future of the World Fellow at the Center for the Governance of Change of IE University in Madrid and co-author, with Marta Dassù, of Anglo Nostalgia: The Politics of Emotion in a Fractured West.

In evidenza

Why Israel Must Tolerate Hamas for the Time Being (BESA Center)

Israel’s inability to thwart Hamas on the Gaza front, even as it persistently worsens the lives of the 20,000 Israeli citizens who live in the “Gaza envelope,” is a national shame. Yet PM Benjamin Netanyahu is correct that this pain must be borne as Israel focuses on the Iranian threat and Israel’s northern front.

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/israel-tolerate-hamas/

By 

In evidenza

Hong Kong’s hotel sector is in free fall as violent protests keep tourists from the mainland, and elsewhere, away (South China Morning Post)

In a matter of months, the strong fundamentals of Hong Kong’s tourism industry have been dealt a massive blow. The hotel market is now a proxy for the perceived stability of Asia’s financial hub, and things don’t look good

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3027397/hong-kongs-hotel-sector-free-fall-violent-protests-keep-tourists

Nicholas Spiro

In evidenza

Is Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-wen’s solidarity with the Hong Kong protesters just a presidential election ploy? (South China Morning Post)

  • Hong Kong’s protests have changed the fortunes of Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP, putting their opponents in an awkward position
  • But even Tsai must walk a line between gaining politically from the protests and incurring Beijing’s full wrath

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3027409/taiwan-leader-tsai-ing-wens-solidarity-hong-kong-protesters-just

Chiu-Ti Jansen

In evidenza

China has no better friend than Donald Trump in today’s America, and Beijing knows it (South China Morning Post)

Beijing’s latest trade-war move to walk back some of its punitive tariffs probably stems from a realisation that if Trump loses to the Democrats in the 2020 election, China can expect an even more hostile White House

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3027408/china-has-no-better-friend-donald-trump-todays-america-and-beijing

Robert Delaney

In evidenza

Hong Kong must leave judges out of the protest politics and safeguard the independence of its judiciary (South China Morning Post)

  • As more arrests are made amid the continuing unrest and criticism of judges’ decisions begin to roll in, Hong Kong must be reminded of the need to respect the judicial process
  • A repeat of the pressure that judges have had to bear working through the Occupy cases would undermine confidence in the courts

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3027423/hong-kong-must-leave-judges-out-protest-politics-and-safeguard

Cliff Buddle

In evidenza

Donald Trump’s trade war can’t solve America’s problems, but it is creating plenty for the global economy (South China Morning Post)

  • Since Donald Trump launched his tariff war, US trade and budget deficits have only grown, and now the US economy is slowing
  • It would be better to tame runaway US consumerism and start policy coordination with other major powers to stave off a recession

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3027381/donald-trumps-trade-war-cant-solve-americas-problems-it-creating

David Brown

In evidenza

Energy, Employment, and Migration in Africa (Project-Syndicate)

African governments and their donors and partners are already committed to investing in skills-building and job creation. Given its implications for employment, development, and migration, there is a strong case for channeling a significant share of that investment toward Africa’s distributed renewable-energy industry.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/africa-migration-employment-youth-agriculture-renewable-energy-by-kandeh-k-yumkella

Kandeh K. Yumkella, former United Nations Undersecretary-General for Sustainable Energy and Director General of the UN Industrial Development Organization, is a co-founder of the African Energy Leaders Group.

In evidenza

An Innovation Agenda for Europe (Project-Syndicate)

The European Union has everything it needs to be a global leader in technology and innovation. The EU’s new leadership team should therefore act immediately to create a strong innovation ecosystem, complete the digital single market, and robustly defend free, open, and rules-based competition.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/europe-innovation-three-priorities-by-manuel-muniz-and-marietje-schaake-2019-09

Manuel Muñiz is Dean of the IE School of Global and Public Affairs in Madrid and Senior Associate at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government.

Marietje Schaake was a Member of the European Parliament from the Netherlands from 2009-19.

In evidenza

The ECB’s Beggar-thy-Trump Strategy (Project-Syndicate)

The European Central Bank’s decision to cut interest rates still further and launch another round of quantitative easing raises serious concerns about its internal decision-making process. The ECB is pursuing an exchange-rate policy in all but name, thus putting Europe on a collision course with the Trump administration.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ecb-euro-exchange-rate-by-hans-werner-sinn-2019-09

Hans-Werner Sinn, Professor of Economics at the University of Munich, was President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research and serves on the German economy ministry’s Advisory Council. He is the author, most recently, of The Euro Trap: On Bursting Bubbles, Budgets, and Beliefs.

In evidenza

Will Sudan Break Through to Democracy? (Project-Syndicate)

After a rocky few months in which it looked as though the Sudanese military might condemn the country to the same fate as Egypt after the Arab Spring, pro-democracy forces have prevailed in seating a transitional government. But whether the transition to democracy succeeds will depend on what happens next.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/sudan-civilian-government-breakthrough-to-democracy-by-ishac-diwan-2019-09

Ishac Diwan holds the Chaire d’Excellence Monde Arabe at Paris Sciences et Lettres and is a professor at the École Normale Supérieure, Paris.

In evidenza

Hongkongers feel betrayed by the system. Here are eight ways for the city to find hope again (South China Morning Post)

Hong Kong is not alone in facing problems, beginning with widening inequality and middle-class stagnation. In times of distress, we must seek ways to secure our future as a critically important city

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3027305/hongkongers-feel-betrayed-system-here-are-eight-ways-city-find-hope

David Dodwell

In evidenza

US may still get another chance of a denuclearisation deal with North Korea this year (South China Morning Post)

  • Positive noises from Pyongyang’s foreign vice-minister and Donald Trump’s sacking of John Bolton bode well for progress
  • However, it was a mistake for Trump to express openness to another summit with Kim Jong-un before making diplomatic progress

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3027396/us-may-still-get-another-chance-denuclearisation-deal-north

Ankit Panda

In evidenza

Hong Kong’s protesters can’t count on Donald Trump – he wants Asia to solve its own problems (South China Morning Post)

Just as some young protesters have adopted the American flag as a symbol of their hopes, US Asia policy is changing. If the Trump administration’s stance on Korea is any indication, he will keep a hands-off approach to Hong Kong

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026885/hong-kongs-protesters-cant-count-donald-trump-he-wants-asia-solve

Brian P. Klein

In evidenza

The London Stock Exchange was wrong to reject Hong Kong’s US$36.6 billion offer. It needs to think bigger or risk being left behind (South China Morning Post)

In rebuffing HKEX’s bid, the London Stock Exchange has failed to consider the role it could play as a funding centre for China’s belt and road. If Brexit happens and its position is diminished as a result, attitudes may well change

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3027008/london-stock-exchange-was-wrong-reject-hong-kongs-us366-billion

Anthony Rowley

In evidenza

Hong Kong’s unrest is a vote of no confidence in the opposition. Pan-democrats must get out of their rut (South China Morning Post)

When pan-democrats lost two seats in 2018, some chalked it up to a changing political environment. The truth is that if the opposition wasn’t so dysfunctional, protesters wouldn’t be taking matters into their own hands in the streets

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3027145/hong-kongs-unrest-vote-no-confidence-opposition-pan-democrats-must

Alice Wu

In evidenza

India’s Democratic Dictatorship (Project-Syndicate)

Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India’s character is being transformed by a government with no regard for institutions, understandings, and conventions maintained since independence. If this trend continues, India may well soon cease to be the country which Mahatma Gandhi struggled to free.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/modi-hundred-days-democracy-by-shashi-tharoor-2019-09

Shashi Tharoor, a former UN under-secretary-general and former Indian Minister of State for External Affairs and Minister of State for Human Resource Development, is an MP for the Indian National Congress. He is the author of Pax Indica: India and the World of the 21st Century.

In evidenza

Who Benefits from False Climate Solutions? (Project-Syndicate)

By distracting from real imperatives, unfeasible solutions to climate change, such as geoengineering, allow the climate crisis to continue to escalate, disproportionately affecting those who have contributed the least to the problem. The truth is that no technological silver bullet can save us from ourselves.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/climate-change-geoengineering-false-solution-by-karin-nansen-2019-09

Karin Nansen is the chair of Friends of the Earth International.

In evidenza

Joining the Technological Frontiers (Project-Syndicate)

Financial analysts recognize the massive growth potential of artificial intelligence and biotechnology. But, if anything, the likely economic impact of these sectors is being underestimated, because few have reckoned with the implications of what will happen when they are combined.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/joining-artificial-intelligence-biotech-frontier-technologies-by-tej-kohli-2019-09

Tej Kohli is a technology entrepreneur, businessman, and philanthropist, and founder of Kohli Ventures, a tech-focused venture capital firm.

In evidenza

The Amazon and You (Project-Syndicate)

Sovereignty entails obligations as well as rights, and where compliance cannot be induced, pressure must be applied. And though positive incentives to encourage and enable compliance would be preferable, Brazil’s government is showing that there must be sticks where carrots are not enough.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/amazon-fires-climate-change-punish-brazil-by-richard-n-haass-2019-09

Richard N. Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations, previously served as Director of Policy Planning for the US State Department (2001-2003), and was President George W. Bush’s special envoy to Northern Ireland and Coordinator for the Future of Afghanistan. He is the author of A World in Disarray: American Foreign Policy and the Crisis of the Old Order.

In evidenza

The Jordan Valley Is Waiting for Zionist Action (BESA Center)

Beyond its unquestionable vitality for Israel’s security, the Jordan Valley in its full geographical scope can accommodate millions of Israelis and national infrastructure that cannot be compressed into the coastal plain. If PM Netanyahu’s declaration of sovereignty is not immediately borne out by a surge of building and focused governmental support, it will sputter and die.

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/jordan-valley-sovereignty-promise/

By 

In evidenza

Iran’s Radical Axis Is Intensifying Its Efforts to Build a War Machine Against Israel (BESA Center)

A shadow war raging between the Iranian-led radical Shiite axis and Israel has become public in recent weeks. This conflict is driven by Israel’s determination to prevent Iran from building attack capabilities in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq.

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/iran-axis-war-israel/

By 

In evidenza

The Khazars: Judaism, Trade, and Strategic Vision on the Eurasian Steppes (BESA Center)

Harnessing the Eurasian lands has always been difficult. The Khazars, an obscure people from the steppes that converted to Judaism many centuries ago, stand out as an exceptional example of how geography, economy, and religion can be used to advance geopolitical interests.

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/khazars-judaism-eurasia/

By 

In evidenza

Thailand’s ASEAN Chairmanship at Midterm: Three Key Issues to Watch After the 34th ASEAN Summit (RSIS)

ASEAN is faced with severe internal and external tests. And considering the tremendous domestic political change as well as regional tensions and uncertainties, 2019, Thailand’s ASEAN Chairmanship year, was always going to be tumultuous for the country and the association. Against this backdrop, the Thai chair concluded the 34th ASEAN Summit with some degree of success. This report assesses the Thai ASEAN Chairmanship at its mid-term, by evaluating both the domestic context of the 34th ASEAN Summit and three key issues that emerged from it. It comes to the conclusion that despite manifold challenges, the association is making some laudable progress. And yet, immediate deliverables should not detract from the need for sustainable long-term progress.

https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/cms/thailands-asean-chairmanship-at-midterm-three-key-issues-to-watch-after-the-34th-asean-summit/#.XXuVgygzaUk

Frederick Kliem

In evidenza

ASEAN’s Transformative Journey: Role of Women in Peace and Security (RSIS)

As ASEAN transforms itself into a region of peace and security, what role can women play to take it to the next phase of inclusive development?

https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/rsis/aseans-transformative-journey-role-of-women-in-peace-and-security/#.XXuRUCgzaUk

Noeleen Heyzer

In evidenza

The Problem with Trump’s Foreign Policy (RSIS)

Critics of Trump’s foreign policy have got it backwards. International consensus, international law and UN Security Council resolutions have not produced the post-World War II international order. These are consequences, not causes, of an order produced by the West.

https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/rsis/the-problem-with-trumps-foreign-policy/#.XXuQKSgzaUk

Adam Garfinkle

In evidenza

CIGI Expert Consultation on WTO Reform (CIGI)

The Centre for International Governance Innovation conducted consultations in the spring of 2019 with trade experts and stakeholders about options for modernizing the trade rules and strengthening the World Trade Organization (WTO). The consultations focused on the three themes of improving the WTO through monitoring of existing rules, strengthening and safeguarding the dispute settlement function, and modernizing the trade rules for the twenty-first century. This report synthesizes the results of the consultations.

https://www.cigionline.org/publications/cigi-expert-consultation-wto-reform

 

In evidenza

Should Central Banks Play Politics? (CIGI)

He’s never come and said it, but it’s pretty clear that Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz disagreed with former prime minister Stephen Harper’s rush to balance the budget ahead of the 2015 election despite the collapse of oil prices.

https://www.cigionline.org/articles/should-central-banks-play-politics

KEVIN CARMICHAEL

In evidenza

Politics, among other concerns, stands in the way of HKEX’s bid for the London Stock Exchange (South China Morning Post)

Stock exchanges trying to stay competitive in the wake of technological advances and structural changes may have profit on their mind, but they should expect regulatory and geopolitical considerations to take precedence

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3027046/politics-among-other-concerns-stands-way-hkexs-bid-london-stock

Andrew Sheng

In evidenza

A Bubble Tea Summit brings together pro-Hong Kong and pro-China protesters in Vancouver (South China Morning Post)

  • The rivals sat together for almost three hours, trying to understand how the other came to such wildly different views about Hong Kong’s protests to their own
  • Their conversation shows how personal and family histories cast the same events during the unrest in very different light

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3027025/bubble-tea-summit-brings-together-pro-hong-kong-and-pro-china

Ian Young

In evidenza

Hong Kong’s protests are just the tip of the iceberg: capitalism is in crisis across the globe (South China Morning Post)

The effects of ‘shareholder capitalism’, which prioritises profit, can be seen around the world, including in the dissatisfaction of Hongkongers. Can a responsible new business model, championed by leading US corporations, be a turning point?

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026675/hong-kongs-protests-are-just-tip-iceberg-capitalism-crisis-across

K. K. Tse

In evidenza

From the trade war to Brexit and the Hong Kong turmoil, simmering political issues remain a threat to global growth (South China Morning Post)

Recent positive developments in some of the major issues weighing on markets, including the US-China trade war and Hong Kong’s protests, offer a welcome respite. But economic fundamentals remain weak and policymakers’ toolboxes are limited

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026848/trade-war-brexit-and-hong-kong-turmoil-simmering-political-issues

Patrik Schowitz

In evidenza

Anti-government protests wreaking havoc on Hong Kong sport but is worse to come? Hong Kong Sevens, marathon and International Races could be hit (South China Morning Post)

  • Visitor numbers to the city have nosedived, raising concerns over some of the biggest events
  • Hong Kong Tennis Open has been postponed, with ASTC Sprint Triathlon Asian Cup and Asian Aquathlon Championships cancelled because of safety worries

https://www.scmp.com/sport/hong-kong/article/3027152/anti-government-protests-wreaking-havoc-hong-kong-sport-worse-come

Jonathan White

In evidenza

Diverse and tolerant Hong Kong has always managed to unite to face challenges – and that’s what brings a weary city hope amid the continuing unrest (South China Morning Post)

  • The past three months have been exhausting, physically and mentally, for MTR staff, police, reporters – and protesters
  • With the extradition bill withdrawn, now is the time to remember friends on the other side of the dispute and begin mending fences

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026756/diverse-and-tolerant-hong-kong-has-always-managed-unite-face

Bernard Chan

In evidenza

India’s South China Sea policy has not changed. Now, as before, there’s no appetite to challenge China (South China Morning Post)

India’s back-to-back moves to boost relations with Japan and Russia, particularly in security matters, appear to indicate it wants a bigger naval role in the contested South China Sea to counter a rising China. The reality is far different

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026729/indias-south-china-sea-policy-has-not-changed-now-theres-no

Abhijit Singh

In evidenza

What’s Former Representative Beto O’Rourke’s Policy on Trade? (CSIS)

This is the second in a series on 2020 presidential candidates and their trade policies. As more candidates release their detailed trade plans, the Scholl Chair will write similar in-depth analyses. Former representative O’Rourke is the second major candidate to do so at length. Read our analysis of Senator Elizabeth Warren’s plan here.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/whats-former-representative-beto-orourkes-policy-trade

William Reinsch, Lydia Murray

 

In evidenza

La Tunisie se rend aux urnes dans un contexte délétère (ICG)

Le premier tour de l’élection présidentielle anticipée tunisienne aura lieu ce dimanche 15 septembre. Selon l’analyste principal de Crisis Group sur la Tunisie, Michael Ayari, les risques de déraillement du processus électoral et de violences sont réels.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/north-africa/tunisia/la-tunisie-se-rend-aux-urnes-dans-un-contexte-deletere

Michaël Béchir Ayari

In evidenza

Seven Opportunities for the UN in 2019-2020 (ICG)

The UN General Assembly kicks off on 17 September amid general scepticism about the world body’s effectiveness in an era of rising great-power competition. But the UN is far from paralysed. Here are seven crisis spots where it can make a positive difference for peace.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/002-seven-opportunities-un-2019-2020

In evidenza

Will There Be a New Russian-Chinese Security Architecture in the Gulf? (BESA Center)

Russia, backed by China, is hoping to exploit mounting doubts in the Persian Gulf about the reliability of the US as the region’s sole security guarantor. It is proposing a radical overhaul of the security architecture in the area, which is home to massive oil and gas reserves and some of the world’s most strategic waterways.

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/russia-china-security-gulf/

By 

In evidenza

What Happens to Israel If the US and Iran Go to War? (BESA Center)

On core matters of peace and security, two closely interrelated questions must be asked:

  1. What precisely does Donald Trump have in mind regarding any potential armed conflict with Iran?
  2. What might such a possibility portend for Israel, a US ally?

https://besacenter.org/mideast-security-and-policy-studies/us-iran-war-israel/

By 

In evidenza

Will the IMF Finally Learn From Argentina? (Project-Syndicate)

Although evidence of the deficiencies in the International Monetary Fund’s standard approach has been piling up for years, old habits evidently die hard. But now that Argentina is once again in trouble under the IMF’s watch, the need for institutional self-reflection can no longer be ignored.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/imf-failed-argentina-program-by-stephen-grenville-2019-09

Stephen Grenville, a former deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, is a non-resident fellow at the Lowy Institute in Sydney.

 

In evidenza

The Clean-Energy Fast Track (Project-Syndicate)

One of the biggest questions for policymakers, investors, and ordinary citizens is whether the development and adoption of clean-energy technologies will take place slowly or rapidly. There is ample evidence to suggest that it will happen quickly, and that those beholden to fossil fuels will soon be throwing good money after bad.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/clean-energy-renewables-global-shift-by-kingsmill-bond-et-al-2019-09

Kingsmill Bond is the New Energy Strategist for Carbon Tracker.

Angus McCrone is Chief Editor of Bloomberg NEF.

Jules Kortenhorst is CEO of Rocky Mountain Institute.
In evidenza

Is Arab Unity Dead? (Project-Syndicate)

US President Donald Trump’s disdain for multilateralism makes it even more likely that Arab governments will continue cooperating with regional allies on key issues rather than trying to reach a broader consensus within the Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation Council. And the already slim prospects for Arab unity will fade even further.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/arab-unity-under-threat-by-jasmine-m-el-gamal-2019-09

Jasmine M. El-Gamal is a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East.

In evidenza

Getting Serious About the SDGs (Project-Syndicate)

Since adopting the Sustainable Development Goals in 2015, the “global community” has singularly failed to create the conditions needed to realize them. But by addressing three big problems in the international economic system, world leaders could yet help to put the SDGs back on track.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/getting-serious-about-the-united-nations-sdgs-by-jayati-ghosh-2019-09

Jayati Ghosh is Professor of Economics at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, Executive Secretary of International Development Economics Associates, and a member of the Independent Commission for the Reform of International Corporate Taxation.

In evidenza

How fast will the world move to cleaner energy? Two scenarios (WEF)

The impending global energy transition is exciting – and it will have wide-ranging implications for the global climate, for business and for consumers. But at what speed is the transition moving – and more importantly, how fast will it go? Will our energy future be fundamentally different from the one we know today?

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/09/will-the-energy-transition-happen-fast-enough-two-scenarios/

Emma Skov Christiansen – Community Specialist, Electricity Industries, World Economic Forum

Espen Mehlum – Head of Knowledge Management and Integration, Future of Energy System Initiative, World Economic Forum

In evidenza

5G will change the world – but who will keep it safe? (WEF)

The advent of 5G networks brings a wealth of new opportunities. Individuals will be able to access a whole range of services more easily, while businesses and governments will be able to use faster download speeds to deliver an entirely new level of service, using a multitude of increasingly interconnected platforms. But why is 5G so different from what has come before, and what new security threats does it pose?

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/09/5g-will-change-the-world-but-who-gets-to-write-the-rules/

Amy Jordan – Lead, Cybersecurity Delivery, World Economic Forum

David Rogers – Lecturer on Mobile Systems Security, Oxford University

In evidenza

To build the workforce of the future, we need to revolutionize how we learn (WEF)

With the advent of massive open online courses (MOOCs) almost a decade ago, learning entered its own period of digital disruption. Digital Learning 1.0 (the age of the MOOCs) catalyzed the democratization of learning by providing digital access to content that had previously been limited to face-to-face. Coursera, Udemy and Udacity were the early pioneers in digitalizing content and making it accessible to millions around the world.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/09/to-build-the-workforce-of-the-future-we-need-to-revolutionize-how-we-learn-wecome-to-digital-learning-2-0/

So-Young Kang – Founder and Chief Executive Officer, Gnowbe

In evidenza

Western military interventions in West Africa’s Sahel region risk producing the dangers they aim to abate (DIIS)

On 6 September 2019 the Danish government presented its new plan for increasing the Danish military contribution to the fight against transnational terrorism in the Sahel region through support to the French counter-terror operation, Barkhane, and the UN mission, MINUSMA.

https://www.diis.dk/en/research/western-military-interventions-in-west-africas-sahel-region-risk-producing-the-dangers-they

Signe Marie Cold-Ravnkilde

In evidenza

Book on emotions and mass atrocity now in paperback (DIIS)

The study of genocide and mass atrocity abounds with references to emotions like fear, shame, horror, and hatred. Yet scholars interested in the causes and dynamics of such violence have given surprisingly little attention to the emotions themselves. Historians and social scientists have often insisted that explanations of genocide and mass atrocity should be sought at the social and political levels, not in the hidden recesses of individual psychology. But emotions are not merely individual psychological phenomena; they are also powerful social and political forces, deeply involved in the history of mass violence.

https://www.diis.dk/en/research/book-on-emotions-and-mass-atrocity-now-in-paperback

Johannes Lang

In evidenza

Paperback out: Hope and uncertainty in contemporary African Migration (DIIS)

How can we understand that African migrants set out for – sometimes dangerous – journeys when Western and African governments alike tell them to stay home? The edited volume Hope and uncertainty in contemporary African migration approaches this question from a migrant perspective, examining the relationship between hope, mobility, and immobility in African migration.

https://www.diis.dk/en/research/paperback-out-hope-and-uncertainty-in-contemporary-african-migration

Nauja Kleist

In evidenza

Remembering Robert Mugabe: Hero or Despot? (RSIS)

Anti-colonialism was the backbone of Mugabe’s agenda of achieving black majority government in his country. As debate continues over his legacy, are there lessons to be learned from the Mugabe model of leadership?

https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/cms/remembering-robert-mugabe-hero-or-despot/#.XXpEMigzaUk

Alan ChongJoel Ng

In evidenza

Judy Asks: Is the Détente Between Ukraine and Russia Real? (Carnegie Europe)

A selection of experts answer a new question from Judy Dempsey on the foreign and security policy challenges shaping Europe’s role in the world.

https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/79833?utm_source=rssemail&utm_medium=email&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiT1dOaU9EaGxZakEyWkRneSIsInQiOiJhTTU2clFqTXpHS1h6WE0zU20rRDlqVVwvWnpzeCtBWlVjSk44ZkFxZDZpaUY1ZlZ4OGdTKzBcL3kzbGk0b1VENzUzdncxSXBWcmNDR2h5S1k5NWZHU1BmRlFHb1F3MXRpeUxONFYwZUFDRVNpclA4XC82QnpmVTAzTHBlbEtoVkJNMiJ9

JUDY DEMPSEY

 

In evidenza

Iran Briefing Note #13 (ICG)

Iran Briefing Notes highlight and provide context for the previous week’s major events featured on International Crisis Group’s Iran-U.S. Trigger List. This infographic resource tracks developments on key flashpoints between Iran, the U.S. and their respective allies in the Middle East.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iran/iran-briefing-note-13

In evidenza

Ukraine-Russia Prisoner Swap: Necessary, Not Sufficient (ICG)

A long-awaited prisoner exchange between Ukraine and Russia marks a positive development in their bilateral relationship. Both countries should now build on their recent progress to implement the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, the surest path to ending the war in eastern Ukraine.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/eastern-europe/ukraine/ukraine-russia-prisoner-swap-necessary-not-sufficient

 

In evidenza

Behind Trump’s Taliban Debacle (ICG)

On 8 September, U.S. President Donald Trump made the startling announcement that he had invited Taliban leaders to Camp David for talks – and then cancelled the gathering. Crisis Group Asia Program Director Laurel Miller and consultant Graeme Smith explain what happened and what it means for prospects of ending Afghanistan’s war.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/afghanistan/behind-trumps-taliban-debacle

In evidenza

The Belt and Road Initiative: Motivations, Financing, Expansion and Challenges of Xi’s Ever-expanding Strategy (CIGI)

This paper argues that with more objectives added since its inception in 2013, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has evolved into a much more expansive grand strategy that includes a package of themes and goals. It examines the policy-making process of the BRI by exploring the motivations behind the plan President Xi Jinping proposed and how the initial Silk Road projects have developed into China’s package of strategies over the past few years. The priorities and performance of China’s investments in the BRI are discussed from the angle of geographical distribution, routes and projects, priority sectors and the connection between the BRI and the previous “going out” strategy China started at the beginning of the twenty-first century. The model and the specific ways China finances and invests in BRI projects, to a great extent, decided the nature of the China-led global infrastructure investment plan. BRI financing is reviewed in detail. Based on the geopolitical and geo-economic analysis of the BRI in the previous parts, the implications of the BRI for global governance as it goes beyond the ambitious infrastructure investment plan are revealed. The risks and problems facing the BRI and the controversy and criticism it has encountered are also addressed. Finally, the paper summarizes the BRI’s ever-expanding themes and the problems and risks it faces, and their implications for the future of the BRI.

https://www.cigionline.org/publications/belt-and-road-initiative-motivations-financing-expansion-and-challenges-xis-ever
 ALEX HE
In evidenza

Why Social Platforms Are Taking Some Responsibility for Content (CIGI)

While the possibility of new regulation looms over the technology industry, an increasing number of social media platforms are taking measures to demonstrate their responsibility. But tech companies’ new embrace of responsibility could fuel — rather than diminish — calls for regulation.

https://www.cigionline.org/articles/why-social-platforms-are-taking-some-responsibility-content

 JESSE HIRSH

In evidenza

Why Hong Kong’s protesters do not want to ‘cut the reed mat’ – they believe they are stronger together (South China Morning Post)

  • ‘Cutting the reed mat’ comes from an ancient Chinese tale of two friends falling out
  • The phrase has been adopted by those in the anti-government camp, urging solidarity regardless of conscience

https://www.scmp.com/magazines/post-magazine/short-reads/article/3026830/why-hong-kongs-protesters-do-not-want-cut-reed

Wee Kek Koon

In evidenza

Why America’s growing wealth gap spells trouble for the rest of the world (South China Morning Post)

Since the 1980s, inequality has increased within rich countries even as poor countries get richer quicker. This reversal of a historical trend might have contributed to the rise of nationalism in the West – and harmful trade policies

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026660/why-americas-growing-wealth-gap-spells-trouble-rest-world

Dani Rodrik

In evidenza

What was behind the Hong Kong stock market rise ahead of Carrie Lam’s withdrawal of the extradition bill? (South China Morning Post)

  • Many hours before Carrie Lam appeared on TV, and well before reports that the bill’s withdrawal was imminent, the Hang Seng Index had begun to rise
  • Did anyone trade on the information before the mainstream press reported it? It would have been magical for the market to go up on no news

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026722/what-was-behind-hong-kong-stock-market-rise-ahead-carrie-lams

Richard Harris

In evidenza

Why India’s relationship with Russia is so special (South China Morning Post)

With the Vladivostok agreements, India and Russia have deepened a relationship that dates back to the cold-war era. What makes it special is its kaleidoscopic polarity, with room to disagree on specific issues while staying the common strategic course

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026573/why-indias-relationship-russia-so-special

C. Uday Bhaskar

In evidenza

To ensure Hong Kong’s economic prosperity, young people must be allowed the freedom to pursue personal well-being (South China Morning Post)

  • To older Hongkongers used to sacrificing personal liberty for economic advancement, young protesters are wrecking the economy
  • But for youths, prosperity is merely a means to pursue personal happiness, without which wealth is meaningless

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026604/ensure-hong-kongs-economic-prosperity-young-people-must-be-allowed

Enoch Hsu

In evidenza

The Era of the Gas Mega-Players (CSIS)

Within 10 years, three exporters will tower over the global gas world: Russia, the United States, and Qatar. Other exporters—Norway, Australia, Canada—will remain big players, but their influence will be regional, not global. New entrants will emerge, and existing players will expand their presence, but no country will match the big three in scale, growth, and reach. China will meanwhile become the largest destination for gas, surpassing Japan in imports and closing in on Europe as a whole.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/era-gas-mega-players

Nikos Tsafos

In evidenza

Trump’s New Troubles (Project-Syndicate)

The US Republican Party has lashed its fate to an increasingly unhinged leader. Whether that changes between now and the November 2020 presidential election may well depend on how his fragile ego withstands the coming months.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-election-anxiety-bizarre-behavior-by-elizabeth-drew-2019-09

Elizabeth Drew is a Washington-based journalist and the author, most recently, of Washington Journal: Reporting Watergate and Richard Nixon’s Downfall.

In evidenza

Sustainable Financing for Family Planning (Project-Syndicate)

The Trump administration’s defunding of sexual and reproductive health services worldwide has underscored developing countries’ vulnerability to the whim of donors. Given the importance of sexual and reproductive health to development, governments must take action to ensure adequate funding.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/funding-family-planning-sexual-reproductive-health-services-trump-gag-rule-by-esenam-amuzu-2019-09

Esenam Amuzu, a member of the Women Deliver Young Leader class of 2018 and the Youth Advisory Board of the Ghana SRHR Alliance for Young People, is an SRHR activist and founder of the My Teen Life project.

In evidenza

Mexico Needs to Change Course (Project-Syndicate)

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) is faced with an economic slowdown, an unsustainable migration policy, the continued threat of US tariffs, and a major trade agreement in limbo. The best – or the least worst – solution is a policy U-turn by AMLO’s government.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/mexico-amlo-change-course-on-migration-economy-by-jorge-g-castaneda-2019-09

Jorge G. Castañeda, Mexico’s Secretary of Foreign Affairs from 2000-2003, is Global Distinguished Professor of Politics and Latin American and Caribbean Studies at New York University.

In evidenza

What’s Wrong with the News? (Project-Syndicate)

The rise of data analytics has made journalists and their editors confident that they know what the people want. Why, then, did almost one-third of respondents to the Reuters Institute’s latest Digital News Report say that they regularly avoid news altogether?

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/reuters-report-on-news-media-trust-by-alexandra-borchardt-2019-09

Alexandra Borchardt is a senior research associate at the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism at the University of Oxford.

In evidenza

Schism: China, America and the Fracturing of the Global Trading System (CIGI)

History was heralded when China joined the ­World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, for good reason: the world’s most populous nation was entering the rules-based system that has governed international commerce since World War II. But the full ramifications of that event are only now becoming apparent, as the Chinese economic juggernaut evolved in unanticipated and profoundly troublesome ways.

https://www.cigionline.org/publications/schism-china-america-and-fracturing-global-trading-system

PAUL BLUSTEIN

In evidenza

How the method in Donald Trump’s madness makes him a political genius (South China Morning Post)

Forget the gaffes, Trump has the Republican Party solidly behind him and a fan club of world leaders, while keeping competitors such as China on the economic back foot. This is the work of a mindful genius

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026420/how-method-donald-trumps-madness-makes-him-political-genius

Peter G. de Krassel

In evidenza

Trump wants US businesses to cut all ties with China: why that’s a lose-lose plan (South China Morning Post)

The loss of the huge Chinese market and supply chains would hit US firms and consumers hard. China’s strengths and a tech boost would see it bounce back, while service-oriented America would face long-term suffering and sustained decline

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026384/trump-wants-us-businesses-cut-all-ties-china-why-thats-lose-lose

Winston Mok

In evidenza

Engaging with India’s Electrification Agenda: Powering Assam (CSIS)

  • Assam has raised the rate of electricity access from 45 percent in 2015 to 100 percent in 2019 through a combination of state and central government efforts.
  • Assam is meeting its target for reducing technical and commercial losses from its utility.
  • The state is developing a variety of power generation sources and fuels, including coal, natural gas, solar power, and alternative transport and cooking fuels.
  • Assam has a strong need for increased workforce capacity, particularly to conduct maintenance and operations of its system.
  • If the Assam Energy Development Agency can access additional funding, its staff would like to conduct micro-hydropower technology research and develop a centralized system for collecting and monitoring data from distributed solar power generation.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/engaging-indias-electrification-agenda-powering-assam

Stephen Naimoli, Kartikeya Singh

In evidenza

The World and the UN Must Reduce Population Growth (Project-Syndicate)

The United Nations’ 17 Sustainable Development Goals imply that there is no longer any need to reduce global population growth, even though it is a serious problem that undermines most of the SDG targets. By adding a further SDG aimed at slowing the increase in population, the world could yet save the UN’s 2030 Agenda.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/new-sdg-dampen-population-growth-by-frank-gotmark-and-robin-maynard-2019-09

Frank Götmark is Professor of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology at the University of Gothenburg and head of The Overpopulation Project – Robin Maynard is Director of Population Matters

In evidenza

Trump’s North Korean Appeasement (Project-Syndicate)

In the 15 months since US President Donald Trump held his first summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, there has been no progress toward denuclearization. But while both leaders have managed to extract benefits from the impasse thus far, it is Kim who stands to gain the most in the months ahead.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-north-korean-appeasement-by-christopher-r-hill

Christopher R. Hill, former US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia, was US Ambassador to Iraq, South Korea, Macedonia, and Poland, a US special envoy for Kosovo, a negotiator of the Dayton Peace Accords, and the chief US negotiator with North Korea from 2005-2009. He is Chief Adviser to the Chancellor for Global Engagement and Professor of the Practice in Diplomacy at the University of Denver, and the author of Outpost.

In evidenza

Did Dudley Do Right? (Project-Syndicate)

The New York Federal Reserve’s immediate past president recently caused controversy by calling on the Fed to make it “abundantly clear” that President Donald Trump will bear “the consequences” of his fiscal and trade policies. But what does “abundantly clear” entail?

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/dudley-new-york-fed-2020-election-by-barry-eichengreen-2019-09

Barry Eichengreen is Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a former senior policy adviser at the International Monetary Fund. His latest book is The Populist Temptation: Economic Grievance and Political Reaction in the Modern Era.

In evidenza

Who Lost Argentina, Again? (Project-Syndicate)

With a presidential election approaching next month, Argentina is once again on the cusp of a crisis that could end in depression and default, owing to mistakes made by everyone involved. Should President Mauricio Macri secure another term, he must waste no time in reversing the country’s economic deterioration.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/macri-argentina-crisis-repeat-imf-creditors-by-mohamed-a-el-erian-2019-09

Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he served as CEO and co-Chief Investment Officer, was Chairman of US President Barack Obama’s Global Development Council. He is President Elect of Queens’ College (Cambridge University), senior adviser at Gramercy, and Part-time Practice Professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. He previously served as CEO of the Harvard Management Company and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund. He was named one of Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers four years running. He is the author, most recently, of The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse.

In evidenza

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue: Towards an Indo-Pacific Order? (RSIS)

The quadrilateral security dialogue, or “Quad,” was reborn in 2017 to secure a “rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific.” Bringing together the US, Japan, India, and Australia, the Quad was initially intended as a mechanism for responding to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. However, it quickly became entangled in growing strategic competition across Asia and collapsed in 2008. Although the four countries still sometimes differ in their views of the region’s strategic trends, the Quad’s revival points to a greater alignment of interests this time around. Nonetheless, major challenges to the Quad’s viability remain. First, it is unclear whether the four powers will be able to maximise opportunities for cooperation while ensuring that wider geopolitical rivalries do not again overwhelm the grouping. Second, given that it has been revived to support this “Indo-Pacific” order, the Quad is constrained by the vagueness of the Indo-Pacific concept and the absence of Indonesia.

https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/idss/the-quadrilateral-security-dialogue-towards-an-indo-pacific-order/#.XXeVrCgzaUl

H. D. P. Envall

In evidenza

Jokowi After the First Term – Reinstating the Broad Guidelines of State Policy: Tipping the Power Balance? (RSIS)

Indonesian political parties are discussing a potential reinstatement of the MPR’s power to issue the Garis-Garis Besar Haluan Negara or the Broad Guidelines of State Policy (GBHN). What are the policy implications and why are they reviving the GBHN?

https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/rsis/jokowi-after-the-first-term-reinstating-the-broad-guidelines-of-state-policy-tipping-the-power-balance/#.XXeTgygzaUk

Jefferson Ng Jin Chuan

In evidenza

Are Foreign Companies Really Leaving China in Droves? (PIIE)

President Donald Trump, in defending his trade war with China, has yet again let his Twitter fingers get ahead of reality. He tweeted in late August that “China wants to make a deal so badly. Thousands of companies are leaving because of the Tariffs. They must stem the flow.” This supposed exodus of foreign firms is another element informing his view that China is under increasing economic pressure and thus anxious to accept US terms for a trade agreement. As is the case with Trump’s claim that the US tariffs are slowing China’s economy and increasing its unemployment, the facts fail to support his view.

https://www.piie.com/blogs/china-economic-watch/are-foreign-companies-really-leaving-china-droves

Nicholas R. Lardy (PIIE)

In evidenza

How Brexit Is Undoing Britain’s Political System (Carnegie Europe)

Brexit could wreck Britain’s centuries-old character of alternating rule by large, ideologically capacious parties. If so, the irony is that British politics will end up resembling politics in much of the rest of Europe.

https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/79815?utm_source=rssemail&utm_medium=email&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTVdabVpqZzJaRFZqTTJZeCIsInQiOiJTN2FEbjFhUVVlWXVCU3VnVm96aTNCNnBEaml0dm1Jc3pUYVYrTUFPWVJWSWhtMmxaZU9zRTh6S0s4QVQxYTdNUmx0RGo0QTRpUkJjQnJHRlNhM0NQMW5cL1NCRFVxbDhGblRPaWVkdlk2M0phcUQzZ2QzXC9KQkxIUVY1T1lKNnhLIn0%3D

PETER KELLNER

 

In evidenza

Why Opportunity Zones could be key to transforming our cities (WEF)

The promise of being the base for Amazon’s second headquarters was great — so great, in fact, 238 cities jumped into the intense, year-long competition. Contenders had so much faith in the impact they promised robust urban transit systems, tax breaks, talent pipelines and infrastructure support.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/09/why-opportunity-zones-could-revive-cities/

Natalia Martinez-Kalinina – Organizational psychologist and strategist, Cambridge Innovation Center

In evidenza

Should We Worry About Income Gaps Within or Between Countries? (Project-Syndicate)

The rise of populist nationalism throughout the West has been fueled partly by a clash between the objectives of equity in rich countries and higher living standards in poor countries. Yet advanced-economy policies that emphasize domestic equity need not be harmful to the global poor, even in international trade.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/growth-in-inequality-within-countries-by-dani-rodrik-2019-09

Dani Rodrik, Professor of International Political Economy at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, is the author of Straight Talk on Trade: Ideas for a Sane World Economy.

In evidenza

Draghi’s Dangerous Farewell (Project-Syndicate)

The risks of further monetary stimulus measures by the European Central Bank outweigh the benefits. Additional stimulus will either amount to less than anticipated or will not be sustained – yet it could still undermine the eurozone’s financial system and public finances in far-reaching ways.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/mario-draghi-ecb-monetary-stimulus-risks-by-ashoka-mody-2019-09

Ashoka Mody is Visiting Professor of International Economic Policy at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University. He is a former mission chief for Germany and Ireland at the International Monetary Fund. He is the author of EuroTragedy: A Drama in Nine Acts.

In evidenza

It’s Time for the ECB to Put QE on Hold (Project-Syndicate)

Now that the European Central Bank has stoked expectations of additional monetary stimulus, there is a risk that interest rates will snap back upward if it doesn’t deliver at its meeting on September 12. But the ECB would be better advised to postpone any significant further policy loosening.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ecb-stimulus-should-wait-by-stefan-gerlach-2019-09

Stefan Gerlach is Chief Economist at EFG Bank in Zurich and a former deputy governor of the Central Bank of Ireland. He is also a former Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Secretary to the Committee on the Global Financial System at the BIS.

 

In evidenza

Ursula von der Leyen’s To-Do List (Project-Syndicate)

One of incoming European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s top priorities is “a new push for European democracy.” Strengthening the EU’s democratic legitimacy will require her to make sure that the EU delivers on citizens’ expectations, including by cooperating constructively with the European Parliament.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/von-der-leyen-european-commission-legitimacy-efficiency-by-daniela-schwarzer-2019-09

Daniela Schwarzer is Director of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).

In evidenza

China’s economy continues to grow (Global Times)

China’s total foreign trade in the first eight months rose by 3.6 percent, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs on Sunday. Calculated in yuan, in August, its exports increased by 2.6 percent while imports dropped by 2.6 percent.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1164104.shtml

 

In evidenza

Drug abuse crisis cripples American dream (Global Times)

“These newborn babies cry for drugs, not milk.” The New York Times article has triggered heated debates on social media. Written by columnist Nicholas Kristof on Saturday, the opinion piece points out directly the serious situation of drug-addicted infants and the opioid-abusing America.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1164103.shtml

By Li Qingqing

In evidenza

China’s role vital in sensitive South Asia (Global Times)

Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi kicked off a visit to Pakistan on Saturday and also attended the third China-Afghanistan-Pakistan Foreign Ministers’ Dialogue in Islamabad. Wang’s visit has come amid rising India-Pakistan tensions.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1164089.shtml

By Zhao Gancheng

In evidenza

Hong Kong elite need to update their national recognition (Global Times)

Amid the hurly-burly of protests, echo of the slogan “Revive Hong Kong, revolution of our times” rang aloud as city scholar Chow Po-chung gloated over “our golden era” to fight for so-called democracy, justifying the rampaging actions of demonstrators. What kind of “times” are the radical protesters expecting? What are the core values and political appeals of their “times?” Apparently, the divergence in ideology and values is the deeper reason of the anti-extradition bill protests.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1164102.shtml

By Tian Feilong

In evidenza

India needs foreign capital to fix its infrastructure (Global Times)

Prakash Javadekar, minister of environment, forest and climate change and minister of information and broadcasting in India, was quoted by media reports as saying recently that the Indian government is likely to invest 100 trillion rupees ($1.4 trillion) over the next five years to boost India’s infrastructure.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1164098.shtml

By Hu Weijia

In evidenza

US needs to stop using tariffs at will (Global Times)

Tariffs are now becoming toys for US President Donald Trump. He always plays the “tariff card” when he feels bored, and he needs to because he is addicted to tariffs. Without tariffs, President Trump has no fun with himself and his team members.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1164073.shtml

By Liu Zhiqin

In evidenza

Global economic slowdown is China’s opportunity to take the initiative in settling the trade war and easing tensions (South China Morning Post)

  • China should set a new range for its currency and use the rest of its reflationary tools to reach its 2019 growth target
  • It should also lead the way in seeking reconciliation at a time when the trade war is hurting everyone

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026288/global-economic-slowdown-chinas-opportunity-take-initiative

David Brown

In evidenza

Markets remain confident about Hong Kong’s future, even though poor leadership is undermining it (South China Morning Post)

Despite the unrest and Fitch’s downgrade, markets do not believe Hong Kong’s special status as a financial centre is in danger. Rather, it is Hong Kong’s own government that has done more to sow uncertainty about the city’s stability

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026297/markets-remain-confident-about-hong-kongs-future-even-though-poor

Nicholas Spiro

In evidenza

Hong Kong protests have dented EU-China ties, but the threat of global recession will prevent Europe from pressing Beijing further (South China Morning Post)

EU-China ties are already strained by South China Sea tensions, Xinjiang detentions and 5G security concerns. So the European Union is unlikely to spend much political capital pressing Beijing on Hong Kong, with a recession on the horizon

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026381/hong-kong-protests-have-dented-eu-china-ties-threat-global

Emanuele Scimia

In evidenza

With the pound unlikely to fall any further in the event of a no-deal Brexit, now is the time to buy UK property (South China Morning Post)

Most commentators say that the prospects for the sterling must be upwards over the medium term and that means the market is ripe for buyers

https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3026450/pound-unlikely-fall-any-further-event-no-deal-brexit-now-time-buy-uk

John Slade

In evidenza

Singapore braces for rising sea levels, taking practical steps to prepare for climate change (South China Morning Post)

  • Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong recently announced plans to protect the island nation against a projected one metre rise in sea levels
  • In ancient China, legend tells of how one man redirected floodwaters to become king

https://www.scmp.com/magazines/post-magazine/short-reads/article/3026478/singapore-braces-rising-sea-levels-taking

Wee Kek Koon

In evidenza

China’s soft power failures may cost Hong Kong its trade status (South China Morning Post)

  • The reactions of Beijing and its supporters to Hong Kong’s protests have exacerbated its worsening image problem abroad
  • The US under Trump has played a role in this, but China can’t blame it all on the trade war

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026216/chinas-soft-power-failures-may-cost-hong-kong-its-trade-status

Peter Kammerer

In evidenza

A gift that keeps on giving: The contributions of Martin Weitzman to environmental economics (VOX)

Environmental economist Martin Weitzman passed away in August. This short intellectual biography and personal remembrance, by his long-time co-host of the Harvard Seminar on Environmental Economics and Policy, outlines how his contributions have advanced the thinking of environmental economists and policymakers on many fundamental issues, including policy instrument choice, discounting, species diversity, and environmental catastrophes. Across the board, the example of his rigorous and often ingenious work set high standards for theorising in environmental economics and thereby served to elevate the entire field.

https://voxeu.org/article/martin-weitzman-s-contributions-environmental-economics

Robert Stavins

In evidenza

Trump’s China tariffs: Lessons from first principles of classic trade policy welfare analysis (VOX)

Traditional analysis of tariffs in a partial equilibrium setting can tell us much about the welfare consequences of the US-China trade war. The column argues that, as tariffs ratchet up, welfare costs for both sides increase disproportionately. The cost of trade diversion in the US to less-efficient suppliers likely overwhelms any terms-of-trade gain the US might enjoy. In all cases, exporters in the rest of the world benefit.

https://voxeu.org/article/welfare-effects-trumps-china-tariffs

Daniel Gros

In evidenza

How the IMF can ‘raise its game’ on monetary policy advice (VOX)

Unconventional monetary policies were used extensively to deal with the Global Crisis. This column presents the results of a study by the IMF’s Independent Evaluation Office which assessed the value provided by the IMF in its advice on unconventional monetary policies over the past decade. While in many ways the IMF’s response to an unprecedented challenge to monetary policymakers was impressive, limited depth of expertise on monetary policy issues and high turnover of country teams were an issue. The IMF could have also done more to explore alternative policy mixes and to support better smaller advanced economics and emerging markets.

https://voxeu.org/article/how-imf-can-raise-its-game-monetary-policy-advice

Charles Collyns, Prakash Loungani

In evidenza

The role of political connections in public employment dynamics (VOX)

 Emanuele Colonnelli, Mouno Prem, Edoardo Teso
In evidenza

Puzzling exchange rate dynamics and delayed portfolio adjustment (VOX)

The forward premium puzzle is one of many ways in which exchange rate behaviour can contradict economic theory. This column introduces a model in which delayed portfolio adjustment by investors can address six such puzzles of exchange rate movements. The findings show that slowness in the reactions of investors has the potential to influence asset prices.

https://voxeu.org/article/puzzling-exchange-rate-dynamics-and-delayed-portfolio-adjustment

Philippe Bacchetta, Eric van Wincoop

In evidenza

Carrie Lam listened to 19 Hong Kong elites after ignoring millions of marchers in June – that’s why the bill withdrawal has solved nothing (South China Morning Post)

  • Had Carrie Lam listened to the public on June 9, Hong Kong’s summer of discontent could have been avoided
  • Now, by showing she does value the views of a few elites, she has inflicted more pain on the city, her allies included

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3025987/carrie-lam-listened-19-hong-kong-elites-after-ignoring-millions

Alice Wu

In evidenza

Manila must play its cards right with Chinese offshore gambling, given Beijing’s warnings (South China Morning Post)

  • The spike in Chinese offshore gambling operators has brought jobs and revenue but also problems. Manila must work with Beijing to crack down on human trafficking, fraud and illegal operators
  • Operators should also be encouraged to diversify investments in the Philippines

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3025954/manila-must-play-its-cards-right-chinese-offshore-gambling-given

Lucio Blanco Pitlo III

In evidenza

The trade war has changed US-China ties forever, so Beijing is building bridges to the EU through the belt and road (South China Morning Post)

  • The trade conflict will more likely than not end in a stalemate, sending Beijing scrambling for sophisticated partners
  • China’s overtures to Europe make sense in this light, since Donald Trump has not shown the foresight to counter them

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3025887/trade-war-has-changed-us-china-ties-forever-so-beijing-building

Anthony Rowley

In evidenza

Despite US unease over China and Russia in the Arctic, there are ways for everyone to be a winner (South China Morning Post)

  • As China deepens Arctic activities and ties with Russia, the US has ramped up both its rhetoric and military spending
  • Given the rich natural resources in the region, finding ways to cooperate is in everyone’s interest

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026007/despite-us-unease-over-china-and-russia-arctic-there-are-ways

Nong Hong

In evidenza

World Suicide Prevention Day is a good time for Hong Kong to come together and move past its protest-filled summer (South China Morning Post)

  • The World Health Organisation identifies suicide as a serious global health challenge whose signs must be recognised
  • And for Hong Kong, recent deaths that have been blamed on the local crisis show the need for reconciliation

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026226/world-suicide-prevention-day-good-time-hong-kong-come-together-and

Paul Yip

In evidenza

Inverted yield curves may alarm Donald Trump and the wealthy, but it’s just more stagnation and inequality for the rest of us (South China Morning Post)

  • Low interest rates after the 2008 crisis limit our response to the next recession, but that’s not the only problem
  • For those who aren’t wealthiest of the wealthy, prevailing low interest rates have meant salaries stagnate and savings evaporate

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026207/inverted-yield-curves-may-alarm-donald-trump-and-wealthy-its-just

David Dodwell

In evidenza

Washington has no right to define HK’s high degree of autonomy (Global Times)

With US Senate and House leaders from both parties pledging to advance the so-called Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, some radical activists demonstrated again on Sunday, calling on US Congress to pass the bill as soon as possible.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1164013.shtml

In evidenza

Frictions won’t jolt US-South Korea alliance (Global Times)

It was reported by South Korean media that the Blue House National Security Council decided on August 30 to push actively for an early return of the remaining 26 US military bases in South Korea. Before the Seoul Defense Dialogue kicked off on Wednesday, speculation was running high that Washington may not send a senior official to take part, though the US embassy in Seoul announced at the last minute that US Forces Korea Commander General Robert Abrams would attend the forum.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163967.shtml

By Dong Xiangrong

In evidenza

How to close understanding gap between China, the US? (Global Times)

Amid a raging trade war, where are China-US relations headed? Are Beijing and Washington enemies? Peter Walker (Walker), author of Powerful, Different, Equal and a senior partner emeritus at McKinsey & Company, shared his insights with Global Times (GT) reporter Yan Yunming.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163794.shtml

 

In evidenza

Solid foreign reserves are basis of China’s resilience (Global Times)

China’s foreign exchange reserves rose by $3.5 billion in August to $3.1072 trillion. Economists polled by Reuters had expected that reserves would fall from July. The increase in August suggested China is doing better than expected at hedging against financial risks.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163993.shtml

By Hu Weijia

In evidenza

Was Israel’s Entry Refusal a Boon or a Bust for Tlaib and Omar? (BESA Center)

The dual abilities of Congresswomen Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar to arouse the ire of President Trump and spout antisemitic, anti-Israel messages with impunity have raised their profile well beyond that of other junior representatives and significantly boosted their popularity. Supporters of Israel, as well as those who care about the interests of the US, will have to strive to defeat them in the next Congressional elections.

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/was-israels-entry-refusal-a-boon-or-a-bust-for-tlaib-and-omar/

By 

In evidenza

Hezbollah’s Demographic Problem Explains Its Restraint (BESA Center)

Hezbollah responded with restraint to Israel’s three-pronged attacks over the past two weeks in Syria, Iraq, and, above all, a neighborhood in Dahiya, the vast Shiite area in Beirut where Hezbollah is headquartered. The organization’s effort to avoid escalation reflects its demographic problem in Lebanon.

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/hezbollah-demographic-problem/

By 

In evidenza

How to close understanding gap between China, the US? (Global Times)

Amid a raging trade war, where are China-US relations headed? Are Beijing and Washington enemies? Peter Walker (Walker), author of Powerful, Different, Equal and a senior partner emeritus at McKinsey & Company, shared his insights with Global Times (GT) reporter Yan Yunming.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163794.shtml

 

In evidenza

Trump government needs to change course and stop the trade war with China (Global Times)

Following a ferocious rhetorical spat between Washington and Beijing over the past two months, the world’s two major powers have agreed to hold high-level trade talks in the US in early October. The world has been watching aghast, concerned that the unprecedented-scale trade war will cause a global recession in 2020.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163813.shtml

By Li Hong

In evidenza

Refugees and irregular migrants in Europe: Self-selection and sorting (VOX)

About 1.4 million refugees and irregular migrants arrived in Europe in 2015 and 2016, but little is known about their socio-demographic characteristics and motivations. This column presents the first large-scale evidence on why those who crossed the Mediterranean in 2015 and 2016 had left their home countries. While the vast majority were escaping conflict, the main motivation for a significant number of migrants from countries such as Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and Pakistan was a desire to seek out better economic opportunities. People who are educated to secondary or tertiary level are more likely to migrate than people with lower levels of education, particularly when fleeing a major conflict, and these people are more likely to head for countries that have more comprehensive migrant integration policies.

https://voxeu.org/article/self-selection-and-sorting-among-refugees-and-irregular-migrants-europe

Cevat Giray Aksoy, Panu Poutvaara

In evidenza

Costs of employment and flexible labour demand: Evidence from maternity and parental leave reforms (VOX)

One factor exacerbating gender gaps in employment is the cost of affording maternity and parental leave to women as primary caregivers. This column analyses the relationship between the costs of providing parental leave and labour demand for childbearing-age women. As evidenced by a series of reforms in Japan in the last two decades, reducing the burden of parental leave costs from firms to social insurance systems increases both labour demand and starting wages for such workers.

https://voxeu.org/article/costs-employment-and-flexible-labour-demand

Yukiko Asai

In evidenza

Economists at war (VOX)

The World Wars precipitated unprecedented economic problems in all countries. This column, part of a Vox debate on the economics of WWII, describes how economists played a larger role in WWII than in any previous conflict. They advanced the methods of public finance and influenced the directions of the war effort. By the end of the war, economists were widely embedded in government and policymaking.

https://voxeu.org/article/economists-war

Alan Bollard

In evidenza

Challenges boost China’s consensus (Global Times)

2019 marks the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This is a year to celebrate. Yet the US-launched trade war against China has escalated, and Hong Kong is experiencing its most serious unrest since its return to China. These are new tests of Chinese society’s solidarity and ability to move forward under complicated circumstances.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163668.shtml

 

In evidenza

Europe must avoid being US pawn on Iran issue (Global Times)

The US on Tuesday imposed sanctions on three Iranian space agencies, accusing Iran of using “its space launch program as cover to advance its ballistic missile programs.” As Washington tightened its sanctions on Tehran, France has reportedly proposed a $15 billion bailout package to Iran in exchange for a return to the nuclear deal and security in the Gulf. The move, at this point in time, is a gesture of goodwill which could make a real difference.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163677.shtml

By Shi Tian

In evidenza

ASEAN war games with US meant to promote centrality of bloc in the region (Global Times)

After holding two joint maritime exercises with China in October 2018 and April 2019, ASEAN members launched their first joint maritime war games with the US from Monday to Friday at a naval base in Chonburi province, east of Bangkok, Thailand.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163659.shtml

By Ge Hongliang

In evidenza

German chancellor’s trip a benchmark in many ways (Global Times)

German Chancellor Angela Merkel kicks off Friday a two-day visit to China, less than 15 months after her last trip to the country. Germany is facing an economic downturn, while populist parties have surged in the country and the international situation is becoming more uncertain. As such, it is worthy of attention whether Merkel’s visit to China, which has some special meaning, could be a new start to the betterment of China-Germany and China-Europe ties.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163770.shtml

By He Zhigao

In evidenza

US unions cannot be overlooked by Chinese businesses (Global Times)

American Factory, a documentary backed by former US President Barack Obama and former first lady Michelle Obama, records the twists and turns that Chinese glass manufacturer Fuyao encountered while setting up a factory in Dayton, Ohio. In 2017, the New York Times reported on the cultural conflicts the Chinese company had encountered.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163673.shtml

By Liu Ge

In evidenza

Why Climb Mount Everest? (Project-Syndicate)

The record number of deaths this year on the world’s tallest mountain underscores the immorality of seeking to reach the summit. But even if you are lucky enough to reach the top without passing a climber in need of help, you are still choosing your personal goal over saving a life.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/immorality-of-climbing-mount-everest-by-peter-singer-2019-09

Peter Singer is Professor of Bioethics at Princeton University, Laureate Professor in the School of Historical and Philosophical Studies at the University of Melbourne, and founder of the non-profit organization The Life You Can Save. His books include Animal LiberationPractical EthicsThe Ethics of What We Eat (with Jim Mason), Rethinking Life and DeathThe Point of View of the Universe, co-authored with Katarzyna de Lazari-Radek, The Most Good You Can DoFamine, Affluence, and MoralityOne World NowEthics in the Real World, and Utilitarianism: A Very Short Introduction, also with Katarzyna de Lazari-Radek. In 2013, he was named the world’s third “most influential contemporary thinker” by the Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute.

In evidenza

Trump’s Mercantilist Mess (Project-Syndicate)

When US President Donald Trump boasted that trade wars are “easy to win” in March 2018, it was convenient to dismiss the remark as a rhetorical flourish. Yet it is now clear that Trump meant it, because he genuinely believes the bizarre and anachronistic macroeconomic theories underlying his approach.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-trade-policy-mercantilism-by-robert-j-barro-2019-09

Robert J. Barro is Professor of Economics at Harvard University and a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. He is co-author (with Rachel M. McCleary) of The Wealth of Religions: The Political Economy of Believing and Belonging.

In evidenza

Money for Nothing (Project-Syndicate)

The persistence of low inflation across advanced economies has led central banks into the realm of zero and even negative policy rates, with the result that government borrowing (and thus spending) is now free. Populist politicians find themselves right at home, while those warning that there is no free lunch will be ignored – until it is too late.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/political-consequences-of-unconventional-monetary-policy-by-harold-james-2019-09

Harold James is Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University and a senior fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation. A specialist on German economic history and on globalization, he is a co-author of the new book The Euro and The Battle of Ideas, and the author of The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization CycleKrupp: A History of the Legendary German Firm, and Making the European Monetary Union.

In evidenza

China is Committed to Multilateralism (Project-Syndicate)

In China’s view, the failure of existing international institutions to adjust to the growing clout of emerging and developing economies undermines the legitimacy of the entire multilateral system. But, far from trying to upend that system, China is working to strengthen it.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-aiib-multilateral-institutions-cooperation-by-xizhou-zhou-2019-09

Xizhou Zhou is a managing director of IHS Markit and heads the firm’s global power and renewables practice.

In evidenza

Muhammad Dahlan and the Deal of the Century (BESA Center)

A controversial former security official and Abu Dhabi-based political operator, Muhammad Dahlan, has lurked for several years in the shadows of Palestinian politics. It is possible that he will emerge in an attempt to pave the way for US president Donald Trump’s much maligned “Deal of the Century” to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/muhammad-dahlan-deal-century/

By

In evidenza

How Sincere Is the Turkey-Iran Friendship? (BESA Center)

If the world press is anything to go by, the Turkey-Iran courtship is getting serious, and Russia is playing best man. The two countries’ strengthening ties are based on shared regional goals, the most prominent of which is Syria. But how sincere is the burgeoning relationship?

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/iran-turkey-friendship/

By

In evidenza

Port d’armes, un sujet de campagne sous surveillance de la NRA. Podcast (IFRI)

Sur la question du port d’armes comme sur bien d’autres sujets, Donald Trump a pris des positions contradictoires. Mais il va falloir qu’il se positionne clairement: après les tueries de cet été, le débat est –encore– revenu à la une. Et la question pourrait bien s’inviter dans la campagne, mais la NRA veille à ce que rien ne bouge.

https://www.ifri.org/fr/espace-media/lifri-medias/port-darmes-un-de-campagne-surveillance-de-nra-podcast

Laurence NARDON, 6ème épisode de la série de podcasts “Trump 2020” en partenariat avec Slate.fr et Time to Sign Off

In evidenza

La dimension sociale de la politique européenne : un nouveau domaine de responsabilité franco-allemande (IFRI)

Pendant des décennies, l’intégration européenne a négligé la politique sociale. En conséquence, l’Union européenne n’est pas considérée comme un acteur crédible dans ce domaine. Dans sa 9e prise de position, le Groupe Daniel Vernet soutient la nécessité d’un renforcement de la dimension sociale du projet européen. Face à ce défi, la France et l’Allemagne doivent contribuer à l’élaboration d’une approche européenne.

https://www.ifri.org/fr/publications/editoriaux-de-lifri/dimension-sociale-de-politique-europeenne-un-nouveau-domaine-de

Groupe Daniel Vernet

In evidenza

Russia’s Military Posture in the Arctic (Chatham House)

Russia’s military posture in the Arctic is informed by the changing geopolitical environment, and can no longer be considered in isolation from the country’s growing tensions with the West.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/file/russia-s-military-posture-arctic

Mathieu Boulègue, Research Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House

In evidenza

Coercing Climate Change (IISS)

At the end of last month’s Group of 7 summit in Biarritz, hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron as fires raged in the Amazon rainforest in Brazil, Macron announced that G7 member nations had approved an £18 million aid package to combat the fires. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro minimised their impact and rejected the help, with US President Donald Trump’s support.

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/survival-blog/2019/09/coercing-climate-change

Bruce Gilley, David Kinsella

In evidenza

Breaking Byte of Religious Extremism (RSIS)

Contemporary societies exist in challenging times because of internal schisms and intra-state conflicts where religious extremism is a significant contributing factor, harming religious harmony and social cohesion. Singapore’s updating of the Maintenance of Religious Harmony Act will empower it to respond swiftly to threats on the religious front.

https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/cens/breaking-byte-of-religious-extremism/#.XXDnwCgzaUk

Muhammad Faizal Bin Abdul Rahman

In evidenza

El-Paso Shootings: Growing Threat of White Supremacists (RSIS)

The 4 August random killings in the US state of Texas is one of several attacks involving far-right terrorists in recent months. Such terrorists, usually white supremacists, are emerging as a transnational terrorist network and spreading in several Western countries. Yet far-right terrorism is not adequately prioritised as a security threat. It is time for a tougher stance against this growing threat.

https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/icpvtr/el-paso-shootings-growing-threat-of-white-supremacists/#.XXDm9CgzaUk

Natasha Quek

In evidenza

The Rise of Economic Nationalism Threatens Global Cooperation (PIIE)

The coordinated policy response of major economic powers to the global financial crisis  of 2008 prevented an even bigger catastrophe.

https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/rise-economic-nationalism-threatens-global-cooperation

Monica de Bolle (PIIE)

In evidenza

Elizabeth Warren’s Approach to Trade Is Inclusive, Green, and Ineffective (PIIE)

If Senator Elizabeth Warren’s policies on trade have a familiar ring, it may be because they echo the unlikely alliance of economic nationalist, labor, and environmental interests championed by previous presidential candidates Patrick Buchanan, Ross Perot, and Ralph Nader, vintage 1993, in opposition to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). A majority of Democrats in Congress also voted against NAFTA.

https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/elizabeth-warrens-approach-trade-inclusive-green-and

Jeffrey J. Schott (PIIE)

In evidenza

Standards for the Digital Economy: Creating an Architecture for Data Collection, Access and Analytics (CIGI)

Canadian industry and thought leaders view digitization as a way to enhance the competitiveness of the economy; digitization can also improve the delivery of services such as health care. In order to achieve this vision, new data value chains are needed. Data value chains would allow participants in existing supply chains to share data, gain new insights, solve problems and become more efficient. Standards are required to clarify the roles and responsibilities of participants in data value chains regarding data collection and grading, data access and sharing, as well as data analytics and solutions. Standards are also necessary to achieve interoperability and set appropriate benchmarks regarding data governance — both necessary preconditions for data sharing between organizations.

https://www.cigionline.org/publications/standards-digital-economy-creating-architecture-data-collection-access-and-analytics

 MICHEL GIRARD

In evidenza

Why the Data Economy Needs Standards to Thrive (CIGI)

Although not visible or understood by the average customer, standards keep the economy running. Standards describe and define the importance of a process, product, service or system. Standards provide a level playing field for industry and help build trust between participants in supply chains. When it comes to tangible goods – from a screw, to a toa