In evidenza

Strategic Decision-Making During Cyber Conflict: The SingHealth Case (RSIS)

Cyber technology enables countries to act covertly. Furthermore, it is not always easy to identify who is behind a given attack. So, what leads countries that were victims of cyberattacks to reveal the incidents?

https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/cens/strategic-decision-making-during-cyber-conflict-the-singhealth-case/#.XYItFygzaUk

Gil BaramUdi Sommer

In evidenza

UN Climate Action Summit: Unlocking the Paris Agreement (RSIS)

Article 6 of the Paris Agreement holds the key to ground-up cooperation involving multiple stakeholders from governments, businesses, the private sector, and civil society.

https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/rsis/un-climate-action-summit-unlocking-the-paris-agreement/#.XYIsPSgzaUk

Sharon Seah

In evidenza

US-China Trade War: The Guns of August (PIIE)

August, which is supposed to be a somnolent month, has erupted in 2019 in a blaze of threats and tariff escalations. At times, President Donald Trump’s trade war with China has seemed like it was spinning out of control. A pivotal moment occurred August 23 when China announced details of its long-anticipated retaliation to Trump’s newest tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese imports. Trump’s immediate response was for yet another round of his own tariffs and a bizarre directive to US companies to pull out of China.

https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/us-china-trade-war-guns-august

Chad P. Bown (PIIE)

In evidenza

A Drop in Tourism Is Threatening Hong Kong’s Economy (PIIE)

Racked by antigovernment protests since June 2019, Hong Kong is on the brink of recession. Its economy contracted by 0.4 percent in real terms in the second quarter of 2019 over the preceding quarter. If this trend has continued in the third quarter, Hong Kong might have already fallen into a technical recession,[1] as the territory’s financial secretary has warned. A leading cause of its economic troubles is the well-publicized plunge in the tourism industry

https://www.piie.com/blogs/china-economic-watch/drop-tourism-threatening-hong-kongs-economy

Tianlei Huang (PIIE)

In evidenza

Hong Kong still has the edge over Shenzhen and other Chinese cities, despite the protests (South China Morning Post)

  • Any plan to sideline the defiant former British colony ignores the central role the financial hub plays for China’s economy
  • Its rule of law and various freedoms, attributes of an open economy, have become even more valuable now amid the US-China trade war

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3027593/hong-kong-still-has-edge-over-shenzhen-and-other-chinese-cities

Cary Huang

In evidenza

Controversial lawmaker Junius Ho holds Hong Kong racing hostage – and there are no winners (South China Morning Post)

  • The pro-establishment politician creates a chaotic situation that puts the Jockey Club between a rock and a hard place
  • Given the precedence and likely sentiment, is the Chinese National Day meeting on October 1 in doubt too?

https://www.scmp.com/sport/article/3027920/controversial-lawmaker-junius-ho-holds-hong-kong-racing-hostage-and-there-are

Tom Biddington

In evidenza

Hong Kong’s protesters can’t count on Donald Trump – he wants Asia to solve its own problems (South China Morning Post)

Just as some young protesters have adopted the American flag as a symbol of their hopes, US Asia policy is changing. If the Trump administration’s stance on Korea is any indication, he will keep a hands-off approach to Hong Kong

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026885/hong-kongs-protesters-cant-count-donald-trump-he-wants-asia-solve

Brian P. Klein

In evidenza

Donald Trump is waking up to the fact that ending the trade war with China will help him win in 2020 (South China Morning Post)

The US president has figured he needs a deal with China to soften the economic impact the trade war is having on his voter base, particularly in the key swing states that helped propel him to power in 2016

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3027571/donald-trump-waking-fact-ending-trade-war-china-will-help-him-win

Neal Kimberley

In evidenza

Research Collaboration in an Era of Strategic Competition (CSIS)

There is a growing concern in Washington that certain aspects of international scientific collaboration pose a risk to U.S. economic and national security, making it the latest front in rising U.S.-China competition. At the same time, the U.S. innovation ecosystem depends greatly on foreign scientists and partnerships with foreign research institutions. A well-calibrated strategy to manage these risks will maximize openness while protecting intellectual property, research integrity, and national security. These efforts should preserve the ability of the United States to attract top talent, including by maintaining a welcoming environment for foreign researchers, while improving domestic investment in science, technology, engineering, and math outcomes. This report outlines the vulnerabilities arising from foreign research collaboration, the risks of policy overreach, and recommendations to manage risks while maintaining scientific openness.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/research-collaboration-era-strategic-competition

Stephanie Segal, Dylan Gerstel

In evidenza

Is Erdoğan Solely Responsible for Turkish Foreign Policy? (BESA Center)

Many believe Turkey will return to “Western normality” as soon as Recep Tayyip Erdoğan finishes his political career. But Turkey’s behavior is influenced by the systemic restructuring of the international arena after the end of the Cold War more than it is by Erdoğan’s aura, as was apparent in the 1990s prior to his advent. It is unwise to anticipate a significant change in Turkish foreign policy once Erdoğan leaves the scene.+

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/turkey-erdogan-foreign-policy/

By 

In evidenza

Strengthening Land Rights Will Curb Migration (Project-Syndicate)

What the US faces on its southern border is not a security problem, but a humanitarian crisis, and punishing attempts at deterrence cannot resolve it. Enabling people to stay where they are requires, first and foremost, strengthening their right to be there.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/stronger-land-rights-will-curb-migration-by-chris-jochnick-2019-09

Chris Jochnick, CEO and President of Landesa, is the co-founder and former director of the Center for Economic and Social Rights and the Ecuador-based Centros De Derechos Economicos y Sociales

In evidenza

Islands of Climate Ambition (Project-Syndicate)

Small island states such as Fiji and Jamaica are using innovative approaches to tackle the existential threat posed by climate change. Developed countries must do more to help them and other islands – including by leading the global effort to mobilize climate finance.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/small-island-states-climate-change-by-andrew-holness-and-frank-bainimarama-2019-09

Andrew Holness is Prime Minister of Jamaica

Frank Bainimarama is Prime Minister of Fiji

In evidenza

Brexit House of Cards (Project-Syndicate)

Following British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s suspension of Parliament, and an appeals court ruling declaring that act unlawful, the United Kingdom finds itself in a state of political frenzy. With rational decision-making having become all but impossible, any new political agreement that emerges is likely to be both temporary and deeply flawed.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/brexit-boris-johnson-european-union-deal-by-mark-malloch-brown-2019-09

Mark Malloch-Brown, a member of the House of Lords, is a political adviser and Chairman of Best for Britain, which campaigns for the UK remain in the EU.

In evidenza

Could Ultra-Low Interest Rates Be Contractionary? (Project-Syndicate)

Although low interest rates have traditionally been viewed as positive for economic growth because they encourage businesses to invest in enhancing productivity, this may not be the case. Instead, extremely low rates may lead to slower growth by increasing market concentration and thus weakening firms’ incentive to boost productivity.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/why-ultra-low-interest-rates-hurt-growth-by-ernest-liu-et-al-2019-09

Ernest Liu is a professor at the Bendheim Center for Finance at Princeton University.

Atif Mian is Professor of Economics, Public Policy, and Finance at Princeton University, Director of the Julis-Rabinowitz Center for Public Policy and Finance at the Woodrow Wilson School, and co-author of House of Debt.

Amir Sufi, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, is the co-author of House of Debt.

In evidenza

An EU “Green New Deal” Requires a Far Higher Price on Carbon (PIIE)

Taxing carbon is probably the most effective way of curbing greenhouse gases that cause climate change. But because taxing carbon emissions will raise gasoline and other energy costs for households and industry, it may be the most politically treacherous step any government can take. Undaunted, Europe should forge ahead with an ambitious plan to make the cost of using fossil fuels effectively exorbitant. The economic impact on Europe would be enormous. But Europe’s actions could also have a significant impact on the United States.

https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/eu-green-new-deal-requires-far-higher-price-carbon

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE)

In evidenza

Trade Talks Episode 101: Huawei, National Security, and the Trade War (PIIE)

Yuan Yang (Financial Times) joins to explain the allegations and complications surrounding Chinese telecom equipment maker Huawei. They discuss alleged risks to national security, IP theft, unfair trade, sanctions violations, export controls, the entity list, and more.

https://www.piie.com/experts/peterson-perspectives/trade-talks-episode-101-huawei-national-security-and-trade-war

Featuring Soumaya Keynes (The Economist) and Chad P. Bown (PIIE)

In evidenza

Finally a Trade Debate, Sort Of (CSIS)

The Democratic presidential candidates’ debate last Thursday finally featured an actual discussion of trade policy, although, typically for television, it was too short and too focused on a single hot-button issue: China tariffs. It also turned out to be not very enlightening.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/finally-trade-debate-sort

William Reinsch

In evidenza

The Strategic Implications of the Strikes on Saudi Arabia (CSIS)

Israel’s inability to thwart Hamas on the Gaza front, even as it persistently worsens the lives of the 20,000 Israeli citizens who live in the “Gaza envelope,” is a national shame. Yet PM Benjamin Netanyahu is correct that this pain must be borne as Israel focuses on the Iranian threat and Israel’s northern front.

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/israel-tolerate-hamas/

Anthony H. Cordesman

In evidenza

Pétrole : les drones attaquent, le baril flambe (IFRI)

Une attaque de drones ou de missiles a provoqué des incendies dévastateurs dans deux importantes installations pétrolières du géant public Aramco, en Arabie Saoudite, premier pays exportateur mondial d’or noir, ce samedi 14 septembre. Cette frappe aérienne a été revendiquée par les rebelles houthistes du Yémen, soutenus par les Iraniens. Les conséquences économiques et diplomatiques sont préoccupantes : le cours du pétrole a fortement augmenté et les tensions entre les États-Unis et l’Iran sont toujours aussi vives.

https://www.ifri.org/fr/debats/petrole-drones-attaquent-baril-flambe

Marc-Antoine EYL-MAZZEGA, invité de Caroline Roux dans “C dans l’air” sur France 5

In evidenza

Australia’s China-threat wave indicates a nation eager to play US pawn role (Global Times)

The Bolt Report on Sky News Australia on the night of September 10 was almost like “a bully’s report,” where ultra-conservative anchor Andrew Bolt intimidated and interrogated Gladys Liu, the first Chinese-born female Liberal Federal MP from Chisholm in Victoria, South-eastern Australia, on her social affiliation and connection with a few Australian-Chinese associations.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1164635.shtml

By Chen Hong

In evidenza

Back to Little England? (Project-Syndicate)

The United Kingdom’s bid to withdraw from the European Union is typically characterized as a dramatic manifestation of British nationalism. In fact, it has almost nothing to do with Britain, and everything to do with English national identity, which has been wandering in the wilderness ever since the fall of Pax Britannica.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/brexit-little-england-nationalism-by-edoardo-campanella-2019-09

Edoardo Campanella is a Future of the World Fellow at the Center for the Governance of Change of IE University in Madrid and co-author, with Marta Dassù, of Anglo Nostalgia: The Politics of Emotion in a Fractured West.

In evidenza

Why Israel Must Tolerate Hamas for the Time Being (BESA Center)

Israel’s inability to thwart Hamas on the Gaza front, even as it persistently worsens the lives of the 20,000 Israeli citizens who live in the “Gaza envelope,” is a national shame. Yet PM Benjamin Netanyahu is correct that this pain must be borne as Israel focuses on the Iranian threat and Israel’s northern front.

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/israel-tolerate-hamas/

By 

In evidenza

Hong Kong’s hotel sector is in free fall as violent protests keep tourists from the mainland, and elsewhere, away (South China Morning Post)

In a matter of months, the strong fundamentals of Hong Kong’s tourism industry have been dealt a massive blow. The hotel market is now a proxy for the perceived stability of Asia’s financial hub, and things don’t look good

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3027397/hong-kongs-hotel-sector-free-fall-violent-protests-keep-tourists

Nicholas Spiro

In evidenza

Is Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-wen’s solidarity with the Hong Kong protesters just a presidential election ploy? (South China Morning Post)

  • Hong Kong’s protests have changed the fortunes of Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP, putting their opponents in an awkward position
  • But even Tsai must walk a line between gaining politically from the protests and incurring Beijing’s full wrath

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3027409/taiwan-leader-tsai-ing-wens-solidarity-hong-kong-protesters-just

Chiu-Ti Jansen

In evidenza

China has no better friend than Donald Trump in today’s America, and Beijing knows it (South China Morning Post)

Beijing’s latest trade-war move to walk back some of its punitive tariffs probably stems from a realisation that if Trump loses to the Democrats in the 2020 election, China can expect an even more hostile White House

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3027408/china-has-no-better-friend-donald-trump-todays-america-and-beijing

Robert Delaney

In evidenza

Hong Kong must leave judges out of the protest politics and safeguard the independence of its judiciary (South China Morning Post)

  • As more arrests are made amid the continuing unrest and criticism of judges’ decisions begin to roll in, Hong Kong must be reminded of the need to respect the judicial process
  • A repeat of the pressure that judges have had to bear working through the Occupy cases would undermine confidence in the courts

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3027423/hong-kong-must-leave-judges-out-protest-politics-and-safeguard

Cliff Buddle

In evidenza

Donald Trump’s trade war can’t solve America’s problems, but it is creating plenty for the global economy (South China Morning Post)

  • Since Donald Trump launched his tariff war, US trade and budget deficits have only grown, and now the US economy is slowing
  • It would be better to tame runaway US consumerism and start policy coordination with other major powers to stave off a recession

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3027381/donald-trumps-trade-war-cant-solve-americas-problems-it-creating

David Brown

In evidenza

Energy, Employment, and Migration in Africa (Project-Syndicate)

African governments and their donors and partners are already committed to investing in skills-building and job creation. Given its implications for employment, development, and migration, there is a strong case for channeling a significant share of that investment toward Africa’s distributed renewable-energy industry.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/africa-migration-employment-youth-agriculture-renewable-energy-by-kandeh-k-yumkella

Kandeh K. Yumkella, former United Nations Undersecretary-General for Sustainable Energy and Director General of the UN Industrial Development Organization, is a co-founder of the African Energy Leaders Group.

In evidenza

An Innovation Agenda for Europe (Project-Syndicate)

The European Union has everything it needs to be a global leader in technology and innovation. The EU’s new leadership team should therefore act immediately to create a strong innovation ecosystem, complete the digital single market, and robustly defend free, open, and rules-based competition.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/europe-innovation-three-priorities-by-manuel-muniz-and-marietje-schaake-2019-09

Manuel Muñiz is Dean of the IE School of Global and Public Affairs in Madrid and Senior Associate at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government.

Marietje Schaake was a Member of the European Parliament from the Netherlands from 2009-19.

In evidenza

The ECB’s Beggar-thy-Trump Strategy (Project-Syndicate)

The European Central Bank’s decision to cut interest rates still further and launch another round of quantitative easing raises serious concerns about its internal decision-making process. The ECB is pursuing an exchange-rate policy in all but name, thus putting Europe on a collision course with the Trump administration.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ecb-euro-exchange-rate-by-hans-werner-sinn-2019-09

Hans-Werner Sinn, Professor of Economics at the University of Munich, was President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research and serves on the German economy ministry’s Advisory Council. He is the author, most recently, of The Euro Trap: On Bursting Bubbles, Budgets, and Beliefs.

In evidenza

Will Sudan Break Through to Democracy? (Project-Syndicate)

After a rocky few months in which it looked as though the Sudanese military might condemn the country to the same fate as Egypt after the Arab Spring, pro-democracy forces have prevailed in seating a transitional government. But whether the transition to democracy succeeds will depend on what happens next.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/sudan-civilian-government-breakthrough-to-democracy-by-ishac-diwan-2019-09

Ishac Diwan holds the Chaire d’Excellence Monde Arabe at Paris Sciences et Lettres and is a professor at the École Normale Supérieure, Paris.

In evidenza

Hongkongers feel betrayed by the system. Here are eight ways for the city to find hope again (South China Morning Post)

Hong Kong is not alone in facing problems, beginning with widening inequality and middle-class stagnation. In times of distress, we must seek ways to secure our future as a critically important city

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3027305/hongkongers-feel-betrayed-system-here-are-eight-ways-city-find-hope

David Dodwell

In evidenza

US may still get another chance of a denuclearisation deal with North Korea this year (South China Morning Post)

  • Positive noises from Pyongyang’s foreign vice-minister and Donald Trump’s sacking of John Bolton bode well for progress
  • However, it was a mistake for Trump to express openness to another summit with Kim Jong-un before making diplomatic progress

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3027396/us-may-still-get-another-chance-denuclearisation-deal-north

Ankit Panda

In evidenza

Hong Kong’s protesters can’t count on Donald Trump – he wants Asia to solve its own problems (South China Morning Post)

Just as some young protesters have adopted the American flag as a symbol of their hopes, US Asia policy is changing. If the Trump administration’s stance on Korea is any indication, he will keep a hands-off approach to Hong Kong

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026885/hong-kongs-protesters-cant-count-donald-trump-he-wants-asia-solve

Brian P. Klein

In evidenza

The London Stock Exchange was wrong to reject Hong Kong’s US$36.6 billion offer. It needs to think bigger or risk being left behind (South China Morning Post)

In rebuffing HKEX’s bid, the London Stock Exchange has failed to consider the role it could play as a funding centre for China’s belt and road. If Brexit happens and its position is diminished as a result, attitudes may well change

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3027008/london-stock-exchange-was-wrong-reject-hong-kongs-us366-billion

Anthony Rowley

In evidenza

Hong Kong’s unrest is a vote of no confidence in the opposition. Pan-democrats must get out of their rut (South China Morning Post)

When pan-democrats lost two seats in 2018, some chalked it up to a changing political environment. The truth is that if the opposition wasn’t so dysfunctional, protesters wouldn’t be taking matters into their own hands in the streets

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3027145/hong-kongs-unrest-vote-no-confidence-opposition-pan-democrats-must

Alice Wu

In evidenza

India’s Democratic Dictatorship (Project-Syndicate)

Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India’s character is being transformed by a government with no regard for institutions, understandings, and conventions maintained since independence. If this trend continues, India may well soon cease to be the country which Mahatma Gandhi struggled to free.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/modi-hundred-days-democracy-by-shashi-tharoor-2019-09

Shashi Tharoor, a former UN under-secretary-general and former Indian Minister of State for External Affairs and Minister of State for Human Resource Development, is an MP for the Indian National Congress. He is the author of Pax Indica: India and the World of the 21st Century.

In evidenza

Who Benefits from False Climate Solutions? (Project-Syndicate)

By distracting from real imperatives, unfeasible solutions to climate change, such as geoengineering, allow the climate crisis to continue to escalate, disproportionately affecting those who have contributed the least to the problem. The truth is that no technological silver bullet can save us from ourselves.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/climate-change-geoengineering-false-solution-by-karin-nansen-2019-09

Karin Nansen is the chair of Friends of the Earth International.

In evidenza

Joining the Technological Frontiers (Project-Syndicate)

Financial analysts recognize the massive growth potential of artificial intelligence and biotechnology. But, if anything, the likely economic impact of these sectors is being underestimated, because few have reckoned with the implications of what will happen when they are combined.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/joining-artificial-intelligence-biotech-frontier-technologies-by-tej-kohli-2019-09

Tej Kohli is a technology entrepreneur, businessman, and philanthropist, and founder of Kohli Ventures, a tech-focused venture capital firm.

In evidenza

The Amazon and You (Project-Syndicate)

Sovereignty entails obligations as well as rights, and where compliance cannot be induced, pressure must be applied. And though positive incentives to encourage and enable compliance would be preferable, Brazil’s government is showing that there must be sticks where carrots are not enough.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/amazon-fires-climate-change-punish-brazil-by-richard-n-haass-2019-09

Richard N. Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations, previously served as Director of Policy Planning for the US State Department (2001-2003), and was President George W. Bush’s special envoy to Northern Ireland and Coordinator for the Future of Afghanistan. He is the author of A World in Disarray: American Foreign Policy and the Crisis of the Old Order.

In evidenza

The Jordan Valley Is Waiting for Zionist Action (BESA Center)

Beyond its unquestionable vitality for Israel’s security, the Jordan Valley in its full geographical scope can accommodate millions of Israelis and national infrastructure that cannot be compressed into the coastal plain. If PM Netanyahu’s declaration of sovereignty is not immediately borne out by a surge of building and focused governmental support, it will sputter and die.

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/jordan-valley-sovereignty-promise/

By 

In evidenza

Iran’s Radical Axis Is Intensifying Its Efforts to Build a War Machine Against Israel (BESA Center)

A shadow war raging between the Iranian-led radical Shiite axis and Israel has become public in recent weeks. This conflict is driven by Israel’s determination to prevent Iran from building attack capabilities in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq.

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/iran-axis-war-israel/

By 

In evidenza

The Khazars: Judaism, Trade, and Strategic Vision on the Eurasian Steppes (BESA Center)

Harnessing the Eurasian lands has always been difficult. The Khazars, an obscure people from the steppes that converted to Judaism many centuries ago, stand out as an exceptional example of how geography, economy, and religion can be used to advance geopolitical interests.

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/khazars-judaism-eurasia/

By 

In evidenza

Thailand’s ASEAN Chairmanship at Midterm: Three Key Issues to Watch After the 34th ASEAN Summit (RSIS)

ASEAN is faced with severe internal and external tests. And considering the tremendous domestic political change as well as regional tensions and uncertainties, 2019, Thailand’s ASEAN Chairmanship year, was always going to be tumultuous for the country and the association. Against this backdrop, the Thai chair concluded the 34th ASEAN Summit with some degree of success. This report assesses the Thai ASEAN Chairmanship at its mid-term, by evaluating both the domestic context of the 34th ASEAN Summit and three key issues that emerged from it. It comes to the conclusion that despite manifold challenges, the association is making some laudable progress. And yet, immediate deliverables should not detract from the need for sustainable long-term progress.

https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/cms/thailands-asean-chairmanship-at-midterm-three-key-issues-to-watch-after-the-34th-asean-summit/#.XXuVgygzaUk

Frederick Kliem

In evidenza

ASEAN’s Transformative Journey: Role of Women in Peace and Security (RSIS)

As ASEAN transforms itself into a region of peace and security, what role can women play to take it to the next phase of inclusive development?

https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/rsis/aseans-transformative-journey-role-of-women-in-peace-and-security/#.XXuRUCgzaUk

Noeleen Heyzer

In evidenza

The Problem with Trump’s Foreign Policy (RSIS)

Critics of Trump’s foreign policy have got it backwards. International consensus, international law and UN Security Council resolutions have not produced the post-World War II international order. These are consequences, not causes, of an order produced by the West.

https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/rsis/the-problem-with-trumps-foreign-policy/#.XXuQKSgzaUk

Adam Garfinkle

In evidenza

CIGI Expert Consultation on WTO Reform (CIGI)

The Centre for International Governance Innovation conducted consultations in the spring of 2019 with trade experts and stakeholders about options for modernizing the trade rules and strengthening the World Trade Organization (WTO). The consultations focused on the three themes of improving the WTO through monitoring of existing rules, strengthening and safeguarding the dispute settlement function, and modernizing the trade rules for the twenty-first century. This report synthesizes the results of the consultations.

https://www.cigionline.org/publications/cigi-expert-consultation-wto-reform

 

In evidenza

Should Central Banks Play Politics? (CIGI)

He’s never come and said it, but it’s pretty clear that Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz disagreed with former prime minister Stephen Harper’s rush to balance the budget ahead of the 2015 election despite the collapse of oil prices.

https://www.cigionline.org/articles/should-central-banks-play-politics

KEVIN CARMICHAEL

In evidenza

Politics, among other concerns, stands in the way of HKEX’s bid for the London Stock Exchange (South China Morning Post)

Stock exchanges trying to stay competitive in the wake of technological advances and structural changes may have profit on their mind, but they should expect regulatory and geopolitical considerations to take precedence

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3027046/politics-among-other-concerns-stands-way-hkexs-bid-london-stock

Andrew Sheng

In evidenza

A Bubble Tea Summit brings together pro-Hong Kong and pro-China protesters in Vancouver (South China Morning Post)

  • The rivals sat together for almost three hours, trying to understand how the other came to such wildly different views about Hong Kong’s protests to their own
  • Their conversation shows how personal and family histories cast the same events during the unrest in very different light

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3027025/bubble-tea-summit-brings-together-pro-hong-kong-and-pro-china

Ian Young

In evidenza

Hong Kong’s protests are just the tip of the iceberg: capitalism is in crisis across the globe (South China Morning Post)

The effects of ‘shareholder capitalism’, which prioritises profit, can be seen around the world, including in the dissatisfaction of Hongkongers. Can a responsible new business model, championed by leading US corporations, be a turning point?

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026675/hong-kongs-protests-are-just-tip-iceberg-capitalism-crisis-across

K. K. Tse

In evidenza

From the trade war to Brexit and the Hong Kong turmoil, simmering political issues remain a threat to global growth (South China Morning Post)

Recent positive developments in some of the major issues weighing on markets, including the US-China trade war and Hong Kong’s protests, offer a welcome respite. But economic fundamentals remain weak and policymakers’ toolboxes are limited

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026848/trade-war-brexit-and-hong-kong-turmoil-simmering-political-issues

Patrik Schowitz

In evidenza

Anti-government protests wreaking havoc on Hong Kong sport but is worse to come? Hong Kong Sevens, marathon and International Races could be hit (South China Morning Post)

  • Visitor numbers to the city have nosedived, raising concerns over some of the biggest events
  • Hong Kong Tennis Open has been postponed, with ASTC Sprint Triathlon Asian Cup and Asian Aquathlon Championships cancelled because of safety worries

https://www.scmp.com/sport/hong-kong/article/3027152/anti-government-protests-wreaking-havoc-hong-kong-sport-worse-come

Jonathan White

In evidenza

Diverse and tolerant Hong Kong has always managed to unite to face challenges – and that’s what brings a weary city hope amid the continuing unrest (South China Morning Post)

  • The past three months have been exhausting, physically and mentally, for MTR staff, police, reporters – and protesters
  • With the extradition bill withdrawn, now is the time to remember friends on the other side of the dispute and begin mending fences

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026756/diverse-and-tolerant-hong-kong-has-always-managed-unite-face

Bernard Chan

In evidenza

India’s South China Sea policy has not changed. Now, as before, there’s no appetite to challenge China (South China Morning Post)

India’s back-to-back moves to boost relations with Japan and Russia, particularly in security matters, appear to indicate it wants a bigger naval role in the contested South China Sea to counter a rising China. The reality is far different

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026729/indias-south-china-sea-policy-has-not-changed-now-theres-no

Abhijit Singh

In evidenza

What’s Former Representative Beto O’Rourke’s Policy on Trade? (CSIS)

This is the second in a series on 2020 presidential candidates and their trade policies. As more candidates release their detailed trade plans, the Scholl Chair will write similar in-depth analyses. Former representative O’Rourke is the second major candidate to do so at length. Read our analysis of Senator Elizabeth Warren’s plan here.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/whats-former-representative-beto-orourkes-policy-trade

William Reinsch, Lydia Murray

 

In evidenza

La Tunisie se rend aux urnes dans un contexte délétère (ICG)

Le premier tour de l’élection présidentielle anticipée tunisienne aura lieu ce dimanche 15 septembre. Selon l’analyste principal de Crisis Group sur la Tunisie, Michael Ayari, les risques de déraillement du processus électoral et de violences sont réels.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/north-africa/tunisia/la-tunisie-se-rend-aux-urnes-dans-un-contexte-deletere

Michaël Béchir Ayari

In evidenza

Seven Opportunities for the UN in 2019-2020 (ICG)

The UN General Assembly kicks off on 17 September amid general scepticism about the world body’s effectiveness in an era of rising great-power competition. But the UN is far from paralysed. Here are seven crisis spots where it can make a positive difference for peace.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/002-seven-opportunities-un-2019-2020

In evidenza

Will There Be a New Russian-Chinese Security Architecture in the Gulf? (BESA Center)

Russia, backed by China, is hoping to exploit mounting doubts in the Persian Gulf about the reliability of the US as the region’s sole security guarantor. It is proposing a radical overhaul of the security architecture in the area, which is home to massive oil and gas reserves and some of the world’s most strategic waterways.

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/russia-china-security-gulf/

By 

In evidenza

What Happens to Israel If the US and Iran Go to War? (BESA Center)

On core matters of peace and security, two closely interrelated questions must be asked:

  1. What precisely does Donald Trump have in mind regarding any potential armed conflict with Iran?
  2. What might such a possibility portend for Israel, a US ally?

https://besacenter.org/mideast-security-and-policy-studies/us-iran-war-israel/

By 

In evidenza

Will the IMF Finally Learn From Argentina? (Project-Syndicate)

Although evidence of the deficiencies in the International Monetary Fund’s standard approach has been piling up for years, old habits evidently die hard. But now that Argentina is once again in trouble under the IMF’s watch, the need for institutional self-reflection can no longer be ignored.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/imf-failed-argentina-program-by-stephen-grenville-2019-09

Stephen Grenville, a former deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, is a non-resident fellow at the Lowy Institute in Sydney.

 

In evidenza

The Clean-Energy Fast Track (Project-Syndicate)

One of the biggest questions for policymakers, investors, and ordinary citizens is whether the development and adoption of clean-energy technologies will take place slowly or rapidly. There is ample evidence to suggest that it will happen quickly, and that those beholden to fossil fuels will soon be throwing good money after bad.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/clean-energy-renewables-global-shift-by-kingsmill-bond-et-al-2019-09

Kingsmill Bond is the New Energy Strategist for Carbon Tracker.

Angus McCrone is Chief Editor of Bloomberg NEF.

Jules Kortenhorst is CEO of Rocky Mountain Institute.
In evidenza

Is Arab Unity Dead? (Project-Syndicate)

US President Donald Trump’s disdain for multilateralism makes it even more likely that Arab governments will continue cooperating with regional allies on key issues rather than trying to reach a broader consensus within the Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation Council. And the already slim prospects for Arab unity will fade even further.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/arab-unity-under-threat-by-jasmine-m-el-gamal-2019-09

Jasmine M. El-Gamal is a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East.

In evidenza

Getting Serious About the SDGs (Project-Syndicate)

Since adopting the Sustainable Development Goals in 2015, the “global community” has singularly failed to create the conditions needed to realize them. But by addressing three big problems in the international economic system, world leaders could yet help to put the SDGs back on track.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/getting-serious-about-the-united-nations-sdgs-by-jayati-ghosh-2019-09

Jayati Ghosh is Professor of Economics at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, Executive Secretary of International Development Economics Associates, and a member of the Independent Commission for the Reform of International Corporate Taxation.

In evidenza

How fast will the world move to cleaner energy? Two scenarios (WEF)

The impending global energy transition is exciting – and it will have wide-ranging implications for the global climate, for business and for consumers. But at what speed is the transition moving – and more importantly, how fast will it go? Will our energy future be fundamentally different from the one we know today?

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/09/will-the-energy-transition-happen-fast-enough-two-scenarios/

Emma Skov Christiansen – Community Specialist, Electricity Industries, World Economic Forum

Espen Mehlum – Head of Knowledge Management and Integration, Future of Energy System Initiative, World Economic Forum

In evidenza

5G will change the world – but who will keep it safe? (WEF)

The advent of 5G networks brings a wealth of new opportunities. Individuals will be able to access a whole range of services more easily, while businesses and governments will be able to use faster download speeds to deliver an entirely new level of service, using a multitude of increasingly interconnected platforms. But why is 5G so different from what has come before, and what new security threats does it pose?

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/09/5g-will-change-the-world-but-who-gets-to-write-the-rules/

Amy Jordan – Lead, Cybersecurity Delivery, World Economic Forum

David Rogers – Lecturer on Mobile Systems Security, Oxford University

In evidenza

To build the workforce of the future, we need to revolutionize how we learn (WEF)

With the advent of massive open online courses (MOOCs) almost a decade ago, learning entered its own period of digital disruption. Digital Learning 1.0 (the age of the MOOCs) catalyzed the democratization of learning by providing digital access to content that had previously been limited to face-to-face. Coursera, Udemy and Udacity were the early pioneers in digitalizing content and making it accessible to millions around the world.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/09/to-build-the-workforce-of-the-future-we-need-to-revolutionize-how-we-learn-wecome-to-digital-learning-2-0/

So-Young Kang – Founder and Chief Executive Officer, Gnowbe

In evidenza

Western military interventions in West Africa’s Sahel region risk producing the dangers they aim to abate (DIIS)

On 6 September 2019 the Danish government presented its new plan for increasing the Danish military contribution to the fight against transnational terrorism in the Sahel region through support to the French counter-terror operation, Barkhane, and the UN mission, MINUSMA.

https://www.diis.dk/en/research/western-military-interventions-in-west-africas-sahel-region-risk-producing-the-dangers-they

Signe Marie Cold-Ravnkilde

In evidenza

Book on emotions and mass atrocity now in paperback (DIIS)

The study of genocide and mass atrocity abounds with references to emotions like fear, shame, horror, and hatred. Yet scholars interested in the causes and dynamics of such violence have given surprisingly little attention to the emotions themselves. Historians and social scientists have often insisted that explanations of genocide and mass atrocity should be sought at the social and political levels, not in the hidden recesses of individual psychology. But emotions are not merely individual psychological phenomena; they are also powerful social and political forces, deeply involved in the history of mass violence.

https://www.diis.dk/en/research/book-on-emotions-and-mass-atrocity-now-in-paperback

Johannes Lang

In evidenza

Paperback out: Hope and uncertainty in contemporary African Migration (DIIS)

How can we understand that African migrants set out for – sometimes dangerous – journeys when Western and African governments alike tell them to stay home? The edited volume Hope and uncertainty in contemporary African migration approaches this question from a migrant perspective, examining the relationship between hope, mobility, and immobility in African migration.

https://www.diis.dk/en/research/paperback-out-hope-and-uncertainty-in-contemporary-african-migration

Nauja Kleist

In evidenza

Remembering Robert Mugabe: Hero or Despot? (RSIS)

Anti-colonialism was the backbone of Mugabe’s agenda of achieving black majority government in his country. As debate continues over his legacy, are there lessons to be learned from the Mugabe model of leadership?

https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/cms/remembering-robert-mugabe-hero-or-despot/#.XXpEMigzaUk

Alan ChongJoel Ng

In evidenza

Judy Asks: Is the Détente Between Ukraine and Russia Real? (Carnegie Europe)

A selection of experts answer a new question from Judy Dempsey on the foreign and security policy challenges shaping Europe’s role in the world.

https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/79833?utm_source=rssemail&utm_medium=email&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiT1dOaU9EaGxZakEyWkRneSIsInQiOiJhTTU2clFqTXpHS1h6WE0zU20rRDlqVVwvWnpzeCtBWlVjSk44ZkFxZDZpaUY1ZlZ4OGdTKzBcL3kzbGk0b1VENzUzdncxSXBWcmNDR2h5S1k5NWZHU1BmRlFHb1F3MXRpeUxONFYwZUFDRVNpclA4XC82QnpmVTAzTHBlbEtoVkJNMiJ9

JUDY DEMPSEY

 

In evidenza

Iran Briefing Note #13 (ICG)

Iran Briefing Notes highlight and provide context for the previous week’s major events featured on International Crisis Group’s Iran-U.S. Trigger List. This infographic resource tracks developments on key flashpoints between Iran, the U.S. and their respective allies in the Middle East.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iran/iran-briefing-note-13

In evidenza

Ukraine-Russia Prisoner Swap: Necessary, Not Sufficient (ICG)

A long-awaited prisoner exchange between Ukraine and Russia marks a positive development in their bilateral relationship. Both countries should now build on their recent progress to implement the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, the surest path to ending the war in eastern Ukraine.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/eastern-europe/ukraine/ukraine-russia-prisoner-swap-necessary-not-sufficient

 

In evidenza

Behind Trump’s Taliban Debacle (ICG)

On 8 September, U.S. President Donald Trump made the startling announcement that he had invited Taliban leaders to Camp David for talks – and then cancelled the gathering. Crisis Group Asia Program Director Laurel Miller and consultant Graeme Smith explain what happened and what it means for prospects of ending Afghanistan’s war.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/afghanistan/behind-trumps-taliban-debacle

In evidenza

The Belt and Road Initiative: Motivations, Financing, Expansion and Challenges of Xi’s Ever-expanding Strategy (CIGI)

This paper argues that with more objectives added since its inception in 2013, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has evolved into a much more expansive grand strategy that includes a package of themes and goals. It examines the policy-making process of the BRI by exploring the motivations behind the plan President Xi Jinping proposed and how the initial Silk Road projects have developed into China’s package of strategies over the past few years. The priorities and performance of China’s investments in the BRI are discussed from the angle of geographical distribution, routes and projects, priority sectors and the connection between the BRI and the previous “going out” strategy China started at the beginning of the twenty-first century. The model and the specific ways China finances and invests in BRI projects, to a great extent, decided the nature of the China-led global infrastructure investment plan. BRI financing is reviewed in detail. Based on the geopolitical and geo-economic analysis of the BRI in the previous parts, the implications of the BRI for global governance as it goes beyond the ambitious infrastructure investment plan are revealed. The risks and problems facing the BRI and the controversy and criticism it has encountered are also addressed. Finally, the paper summarizes the BRI’s ever-expanding themes and the problems and risks it faces, and their implications for the future of the BRI.

https://www.cigionline.org/publications/belt-and-road-initiative-motivations-financing-expansion-and-challenges-xis-ever
 ALEX HE
In evidenza

Why Social Platforms Are Taking Some Responsibility for Content (CIGI)

While the possibility of new regulation looms over the technology industry, an increasing number of social media platforms are taking measures to demonstrate their responsibility. But tech companies’ new embrace of responsibility could fuel — rather than diminish — calls for regulation.

https://www.cigionline.org/articles/why-social-platforms-are-taking-some-responsibility-content

 JESSE HIRSH

In evidenza

Why Hong Kong’s protesters do not want to ‘cut the reed mat’ – they believe they are stronger together (South China Morning Post)

  • ‘Cutting the reed mat’ comes from an ancient Chinese tale of two friends falling out
  • The phrase has been adopted by those in the anti-government camp, urging solidarity regardless of conscience

https://www.scmp.com/magazines/post-magazine/short-reads/article/3026830/why-hong-kongs-protesters-do-not-want-cut-reed

Wee Kek Koon

In evidenza

Why America’s growing wealth gap spells trouble for the rest of the world (South China Morning Post)

Since the 1980s, inequality has increased within rich countries even as poor countries get richer quicker. This reversal of a historical trend might have contributed to the rise of nationalism in the West – and harmful trade policies

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026660/why-americas-growing-wealth-gap-spells-trouble-rest-world

Dani Rodrik

In evidenza

What was behind the Hong Kong stock market rise ahead of Carrie Lam’s withdrawal of the extradition bill? (South China Morning Post)

  • Many hours before Carrie Lam appeared on TV, and well before reports that the bill’s withdrawal was imminent, the Hang Seng Index had begun to rise
  • Did anyone trade on the information before the mainstream press reported it? It would have been magical for the market to go up on no news

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026722/what-was-behind-hong-kong-stock-market-rise-ahead-carrie-lams

Richard Harris

In evidenza

Why India’s relationship with Russia is so special (South China Morning Post)

With the Vladivostok agreements, India and Russia have deepened a relationship that dates back to the cold-war era. What makes it special is its kaleidoscopic polarity, with room to disagree on specific issues while staying the common strategic course

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026573/why-indias-relationship-russia-so-special

C. Uday Bhaskar

In evidenza

To ensure Hong Kong’s economic prosperity, young people must be allowed the freedom to pursue personal well-being (South China Morning Post)

  • To older Hongkongers used to sacrificing personal liberty for economic advancement, young protesters are wrecking the economy
  • But for youths, prosperity is merely a means to pursue personal happiness, without which wealth is meaningless

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026604/ensure-hong-kongs-economic-prosperity-young-people-must-be-allowed

Enoch Hsu

In evidenza

The Era of the Gas Mega-Players (CSIS)

Within 10 years, three exporters will tower over the global gas world: Russia, the United States, and Qatar. Other exporters—Norway, Australia, Canada—will remain big players, but their influence will be regional, not global. New entrants will emerge, and existing players will expand their presence, but no country will match the big three in scale, growth, and reach. China will meanwhile become the largest destination for gas, surpassing Japan in imports and closing in on Europe as a whole.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/era-gas-mega-players

Nikos Tsafos

In evidenza

Trump’s New Troubles (Project-Syndicate)

The US Republican Party has lashed its fate to an increasingly unhinged leader. Whether that changes between now and the November 2020 presidential election may well depend on how his fragile ego withstands the coming months.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-election-anxiety-bizarre-behavior-by-elizabeth-drew-2019-09

Elizabeth Drew is a Washington-based journalist and the author, most recently, of Washington Journal: Reporting Watergate and Richard Nixon’s Downfall.

In evidenza

Sustainable Financing for Family Planning (Project-Syndicate)

The Trump administration’s defunding of sexual and reproductive health services worldwide has underscored developing countries’ vulnerability to the whim of donors. Given the importance of sexual and reproductive health to development, governments must take action to ensure adequate funding.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/funding-family-planning-sexual-reproductive-health-services-trump-gag-rule-by-esenam-amuzu-2019-09

Esenam Amuzu, a member of the Women Deliver Young Leader class of 2018 and the Youth Advisory Board of the Ghana SRHR Alliance for Young People, is an SRHR activist and founder of the My Teen Life project.

In evidenza

Mexico Needs to Change Course (Project-Syndicate)

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) is faced with an economic slowdown, an unsustainable migration policy, the continued threat of US tariffs, and a major trade agreement in limbo. The best – or the least worst – solution is a policy U-turn by AMLO’s government.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/mexico-amlo-change-course-on-migration-economy-by-jorge-g-castaneda-2019-09

Jorge G. Castañeda, Mexico’s Secretary of Foreign Affairs from 2000-2003, is Global Distinguished Professor of Politics and Latin American and Caribbean Studies at New York University.

In evidenza

What’s Wrong with the News? (Project-Syndicate)

The rise of data analytics has made journalists and their editors confident that they know what the people want. Why, then, did almost one-third of respondents to the Reuters Institute’s latest Digital News Report say that they regularly avoid news altogether?

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/reuters-report-on-news-media-trust-by-alexandra-borchardt-2019-09

Alexandra Borchardt is a senior research associate at the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism at the University of Oxford.

In evidenza

Schism: China, America and the Fracturing of the Global Trading System (CIGI)

History was heralded when China joined the ­World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, for good reason: the world’s most populous nation was entering the rules-based system that has governed international commerce since World War II. But the full ramifications of that event are only now becoming apparent, as the Chinese economic juggernaut evolved in unanticipated and profoundly troublesome ways.

https://www.cigionline.org/publications/schism-china-america-and-fracturing-global-trading-system

PAUL BLUSTEIN

In evidenza

How the method in Donald Trump’s madness makes him a political genius (South China Morning Post)

Forget the gaffes, Trump has the Republican Party solidly behind him and a fan club of world leaders, while keeping competitors such as China on the economic back foot. This is the work of a mindful genius

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026420/how-method-donald-trumps-madness-makes-him-political-genius

Peter G. de Krassel

In evidenza

Trump wants US businesses to cut all ties with China: why that’s a lose-lose plan (South China Morning Post)

The loss of the huge Chinese market and supply chains would hit US firms and consumers hard. China’s strengths and a tech boost would see it bounce back, while service-oriented America would face long-term suffering and sustained decline

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026384/trump-wants-us-businesses-cut-all-ties-china-why-thats-lose-lose

Winston Mok

In evidenza

Engaging with India’s Electrification Agenda: Powering Assam (CSIS)

  • Assam has raised the rate of electricity access from 45 percent in 2015 to 100 percent in 2019 through a combination of state and central government efforts.
  • Assam is meeting its target for reducing technical and commercial losses from its utility.
  • The state is developing a variety of power generation sources and fuels, including coal, natural gas, solar power, and alternative transport and cooking fuels.
  • Assam has a strong need for increased workforce capacity, particularly to conduct maintenance and operations of its system.
  • If the Assam Energy Development Agency can access additional funding, its staff would like to conduct micro-hydropower technology research and develop a centralized system for collecting and monitoring data from distributed solar power generation.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/engaging-indias-electrification-agenda-powering-assam

Stephen Naimoli, Kartikeya Singh

In evidenza

The World and the UN Must Reduce Population Growth (Project-Syndicate)

The United Nations’ 17 Sustainable Development Goals imply that there is no longer any need to reduce global population growth, even though it is a serious problem that undermines most of the SDG targets. By adding a further SDG aimed at slowing the increase in population, the world could yet save the UN’s 2030 Agenda.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/new-sdg-dampen-population-growth-by-frank-gotmark-and-robin-maynard-2019-09

Frank Götmark is Professor of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology at the University of Gothenburg and head of The Overpopulation Project – Robin Maynard is Director of Population Matters

In evidenza

Trump’s North Korean Appeasement (Project-Syndicate)

In the 15 months since US President Donald Trump held his first summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, there has been no progress toward denuclearization. But while both leaders have managed to extract benefits from the impasse thus far, it is Kim who stands to gain the most in the months ahead.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-north-korean-appeasement-by-christopher-r-hill

Christopher R. Hill, former US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia, was US Ambassador to Iraq, South Korea, Macedonia, and Poland, a US special envoy for Kosovo, a negotiator of the Dayton Peace Accords, and the chief US negotiator with North Korea from 2005-2009. He is Chief Adviser to the Chancellor for Global Engagement and Professor of the Practice in Diplomacy at the University of Denver, and the author of Outpost.

In evidenza

Did Dudley Do Right? (Project-Syndicate)

The New York Federal Reserve’s immediate past president recently caused controversy by calling on the Fed to make it “abundantly clear” that President Donald Trump will bear “the consequences” of his fiscal and trade policies. But what does “abundantly clear” entail?

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/dudley-new-york-fed-2020-election-by-barry-eichengreen-2019-09

Barry Eichengreen is Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a former senior policy adviser at the International Monetary Fund. His latest book is The Populist Temptation: Economic Grievance and Political Reaction in the Modern Era.

In evidenza

Who Lost Argentina, Again? (Project-Syndicate)

With a presidential election approaching next month, Argentina is once again on the cusp of a crisis that could end in depression and default, owing to mistakes made by everyone involved. Should President Mauricio Macri secure another term, he must waste no time in reversing the country’s economic deterioration.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/macri-argentina-crisis-repeat-imf-creditors-by-mohamed-a-el-erian-2019-09

Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he served as CEO and co-Chief Investment Officer, was Chairman of US President Barack Obama’s Global Development Council. He is President Elect of Queens’ College (Cambridge University), senior adviser at Gramercy, and Part-time Practice Professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. He previously served as CEO of the Harvard Management Company and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund. He was named one of Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers four years running. He is the author, most recently, of The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse.

In evidenza

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue: Towards an Indo-Pacific Order? (RSIS)

The quadrilateral security dialogue, or “Quad,” was reborn in 2017 to secure a “rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific.” Bringing together the US, Japan, India, and Australia, the Quad was initially intended as a mechanism for responding to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. However, it quickly became entangled in growing strategic competition across Asia and collapsed in 2008. Although the four countries still sometimes differ in their views of the region’s strategic trends, the Quad’s revival points to a greater alignment of interests this time around. Nonetheless, major challenges to the Quad’s viability remain. First, it is unclear whether the four powers will be able to maximise opportunities for cooperation while ensuring that wider geopolitical rivalries do not again overwhelm the grouping. Second, given that it has been revived to support this “Indo-Pacific” order, the Quad is constrained by the vagueness of the Indo-Pacific concept and the absence of Indonesia.

https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/idss/the-quadrilateral-security-dialogue-towards-an-indo-pacific-order/#.XXeVrCgzaUl

H. D. P. Envall

In evidenza

Jokowi After the First Term – Reinstating the Broad Guidelines of State Policy: Tipping the Power Balance? (RSIS)

Indonesian political parties are discussing a potential reinstatement of the MPR’s power to issue the Garis-Garis Besar Haluan Negara or the Broad Guidelines of State Policy (GBHN). What are the policy implications and why are they reviving the GBHN?

https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/rsis/jokowi-after-the-first-term-reinstating-the-broad-guidelines-of-state-policy-tipping-the-power-balance/#.XXeTgygzaUk

Jefferson Ng Jin Chuan

In evidenza

Are Foreign Companies Really Leaving China in Droves? (PIIE)

President Donald Trump, in defending his trade war with China, has yet again let his Twitter fingers get ahead of reality. He tweeted in late August that “China wants to make a deal so badly. Thousands of companies are leaving because of the Tariffs. They must stem the flow.” This supposed exodus of foreign firms is another element informing his view that China is under increasing economic pressure and thus anxious to accept US terms for a trade agreement. As is the case with Trump’s claim that the US tariffs are slowing China’s economy and increasing its unemployment, the facts fail to support his view.

https://www.piie.com/blogs/china-economic-watch/are-foreign-companies-really-leaving-china-droves

Nicholas R. Lardy (PIIE)

In evidenza

How Brexit Is Undoing Britain’s Political System (Carnegie Europe)

Brexit could wreck Britain’s centuries-old character of alternating rule by large, ideologically capacious parties. If so, the irony is that British politics will end up resembling politics in much of the rest of Europe.

https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/79815?utm_source=rssemail&utm_medium=email&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTVdabVpqZzJaRFZqTTJZeCIsInQiOiJTN2FEbjFhUVVlWXVCU3VnVm96aTNCNnBEaml0dm1Jc3pUYVYrTUFPWVJWSWhtMmxaZU9zRTh6S0s4QVQxYTdNUmx0RGo0QTRpUkJjQnJHRlNhM0NQMW5cL1NCRFVxbDhGblRPaWVkdlk2M0phcUQzZ2QzXC9KQkxIUVY1T1lKNnhLIn0%3D

PETER KELLNER

 

In evidenza

Why Opportunity Zones could be key to transforming our cities (WEF)

The promise of being the base for Amazon’s second headquarters was great — so great, in fact, 238 cities jumped into the intense, year-long competition. Contenders had so much faith in the impact they promised robust urban transit systems, tax breaks, talent pipelines and infrastructure support.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/09/why-opportunity-zones-could-revive-cities/

Natalia Martinez-Kalinina – Organizational psychologist and strategist, Cambridge Innovation Center

In evidenza

Should We Worry About Income Gaps Within or Between Countries? (Project-Syndicate)

The rise of populist nationalism throughout the West has been fueled partly by a clash between the objectives of equity in rich countries and higher living standards in poor countries. Yet advanced-economy policies that emphasize domestic equity need not be harmful to the global poor, even in international trade.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/growth-in-inequality-within-countries-by-dani-rodrik-2019-09

Dani Rodrik, Professor of International Political Economy at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, is the author of Straight Talk on Trade: Ideas for a Sane World Economy.

In evidenza

Draghi’s Dangerous Farewell (Project-Syndicate)

The risks of further monetary stimulus measures by the European Central Bank outweigh the benefits. Additional stimulus will either amount to less than anticipated or will not be sustained – yet it could still undermine the eurozone’s financial system and public finances in far-reaching ways.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/mario-draghi-ecb-monetary-stimulus-risks-by-ashoka-mody-2019-09

Ashoka Mody is Visiting Professor of International Economic Policy at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University. He is a former mission chief for Germany and Ireland at the International Monetary Fund. He is the author of EuroTragedy: A Drama in Nine Acts.

In evidenza

It’s Time for the ECB to Put QE on Hold (Project-Syndicate)

Now that the European Central Bank has stoked expectations of additional monetary stimulus, there is a risk that interest rates will snap back upward if it doesn’t deliver at its meeting on September 12. But the ECB would be better advised to postpone any significant further policy loosening.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ecb-stimulus-should-wait-by-stefan-gerlach-2019-09

Stefan Gerlach is Chief Economist at EFG Bank in Zurich and a former deputy governor of the Central Bank of Ireland. He is also a former Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Secretary to the Committee on the Global Financial System at the BIS.

 

In evidenza

Ursula von der Leyen’s To-Do List (Project-Syndicate)

One of incoming European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s top priorities is “a new push for European democracy.” Strengthening the EU’s democratic legitimacy will require her to make sure that the EU delivers on citizens’ expectations, including by cooperating constructively with the European Parliament.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/von-der-leyen-european-commission-legitimacy-efficiency-by-daniela-schwarzer-2019-09

Daniela Schwarzer is Director of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).

In evidenza

China’s economy continues to grow (Global Times)

China’s total foreign trade in the first eight months rose by 3.6 percent, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs on Sunday. Calculated in yuan, in August, its exports increased by 2.6 percent while imports dropped by 2.6 percent.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1164104.shtml

 

In evidenza

Drug abuse crisis cripples American dream (Global Times)

“These newborn babies cry for drugs, not milk.” The New York Times article has triggered heated debates on social media. Written by columnist Nicholas Kristof on Saturday, the opinion piece points out directly the serious situation of drug-addicted infants and the opioid-abusing America.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1164103.shtml

By Li Qingqing

In evidenza

China’s role vital in sensitive South Asia (Global Times)

Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi kicked off a visit to Pakistan on Saturday and also attended the third China-Afghanistan-Pakistan Foreign Ministers’ Dialogue in Islamabad. Wang’s visit has come amid rising India-Pakistan tensions.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1164089.shtml

By Zhao Gancheng

In evidenza

Hong Kong elite need to update their national recognition (Global Times)

Amid the hurly-burly of protests, echo of the slogan “Revive Hong Kong, revolution of our times” rang aloud as city scholar Chow Po-chung gloated over “our golden era” to fight for so-called democracy, justifying the rampaging actions of demonstrators. What kind of “times” are the radical protesters expecting? What are the core values and political appeals of their “times?” Apparently, the divergence in ideology and values is the deeper reason of the anti-extradition bill protests.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1164102.shtml

By Tian Feilong

In evidenza

India needs foreign capital to fix its infrastructure (Global Times)

Prakash Javadekar, minister of environment, forest and climate change and minister of information and broadcasting in India, was quoted by media reports as saying recently that the Indian government is likely to invest 100 trillion rupees ($1.4 trillion) over the next five years to boost India’s infrastructure.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1164098.shtml

By Hu Weijia

In evidenza

US needs to stop using tariffs at will (Global Times)

Tariffs are now becoming toys for US President Donald Trump. He always plays the “tariff card” when he feels bored, and he needs to because he is addicted to tariffs. Without tariffs, President Trump has no fun with himself and his team members.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1164073.shtml

By Liu Zhiqin

In evidenza

Global economic slowdown is China’s opportunity to take the initiative in settling the trade war and easing tensions (South China Morning Post)

  • China should set a new range for its currency and use the rest of its reflationary tools to reach its 2019 growth target
  • It should also lead the way in seeking reconciliation at a time when the trade war is hurting everyone

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026288/global-economic-slowdown-chinas-opportunity-take-initiative

David Brown

In evidenza

Markets remain confident about Hong Kong’s future, even though poor leadership is undermining it (South China Morning Post)

Despite the unrest and Fitch’s downgrade, markets do not believe Hong Kong’s special status as a financial centre is in danger. Rather, it is Hong Kong’s own government that has done more to sow uncertainty about the city’s stability

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026297/markets-remain-confident-about-hong-kongs-future-even-though-poor

Nicholas Spiro

In evidenza

Hong Kong protests have dented EU-China ties, but the threat of global recession will prevent Europe from pressing Beijing further (South China Morning Post)

EU-China ties are already strained by South China Sea tensions, Xinjiang detentions and 5G security concerns. So the European Union is unlikely to spend much political capital pressing Beijing on Hong Kong, with a recession on the horizon

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026381/hong-kong-protests-have-dented-eu-china-ties-threat-global

Emanuele Scimia

In evidenza

With the pound unlikely to fall any further in the event of a no-deal Brexit, now is the time to buy UK property (South China Morning Post)

Most commentators say that the prospects for the sterling must be upwards over the medium term and that means the market is ripe for buyers

https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3026450/pound-unlikely-fall-any-further-event-no-deal-brexit-now-time-buy-uk

John Slade

In evidenza

Singapore braces for rising sea levels, taking practical steps to prepare for climate change (South China Morning Post)

  • Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong recently announced plans to protect the island nation against a projected one metre rise in sea levels
  • In ancient China, legend tells of how one man redirected floodwaters to become king

https://www.scmp.com/magazines/post-magazine/short-reads/article/3026478/singapore-braces-rising-sea-levels-taking

Wee Kek Koon

In evidenza

China’s soft power failures may cost Hong Kong its trade status (South China Morning Post)

  • The reactions of Beijing and its supporters to Hong Kong’s protests have exacerbated its worsening image problem abroad
  • The US under Trump has played a role in this, but China can’t blame it all on the trade war

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026216/chinas-soft-power-failures-may-cost-hong-kong-its-trade-status

Peter Kammerer

In evidenza

A gift that keeps on giving: The contributions of Martin Weitzman to environmental economics (VOX)

Environmental economist Martin Weitzman passed away in August. This short intellectual biography and personal remembrance, by his long-time co-host of the Harvard Seminar on Environmental Economics and Policy, outlines how his contributions have advanced the thinking of environmental economists and policymakers on many fundamental issues, including policy instrument choice, discounting, species diversity, and environmental catastrophes. Across the board, the example of his rigorous and often ingenious work set high standards for theorising in environmental economics and thereby served to elevate the entire field.

https://voxeu.org/article/martin-weitzman-s-contributions-environmental-economics

Robert Stavins

In evidenza

Trump’s China tariffs: Lessons from first principles of classic trade policy welfare analysis (VOX)

Traditional analysis of tariffs in a partial equilibrium setting can tell us much about the welfare consequences of the US-China trade war. The column argues that, as tariffs ratchet up, welfare costs for both sides increase disproportionately. The cost of trade diversion in the US to less-efficient suppliers likely overwhelms any terms-of-trade gain the US might enjoy. In all cases, exporters in the rest of the world benefit.

https://voxeu.org/article/welfare-effects-trumps-china-tariffs

Daniel Gros

In evidenza

How the IMF can ‘raise its game’ on monetary policy advice (VOX)

Unconventional monetary policies were used extensively to deal with the Global Crisis. This column presents the results of a study by the IMF’s Independent Evaluation Office which assessed the value provided by the IMF in its advice on unconventional monetary policies over the past decade. While in many ways the IMF’s response to an unprecedented challenge to monetary policymakers was impressive, limited depth of expertise on monetary policy issues and high turnover of country teams were an issue. The IMF could have also done more to explore alternative policy mixes and to support better smaller advanced economics and emerging markets.

https://voxeu.org/article/how-imf-can-raise-its-game-monetary-policy-advice

Charles Collyns, Prakash Loungani

In evidenza

The role of political connections in public employment dynamics (VOX)

 Emanuele Colonnelli, Mouno Prem, Edoardo Teso
In evidenza

Puzzling exchange rate dynamics and delayed portfolio adjustment (VOX)

The forward premium puzzle is one of many ways in which exchange rate behaviour can contradict economic theory. This column introduces a model in which delayed portfolio adjustment by investors can address six such puzzles of exchange rate movements. The findings show that slowness in the reactions of investors has the potential to influence asset prices.

https://voxeu.org/article/puzzling-exchange-rate-dynamics-and-delayed-portfolio-adjustment

Philippe Bacchetta, Eric van Wincoop

In evidenza

Carrie Lam listened to 19 Hong Kong elites after ignoring millions of marchers in June – that’s why the bill withdrawal has solved nothing (South China Morning Post)

  • Had Carrie Lam listened to the public on June 9, Hong Kong’s summer of discontent could have been avoided
  • Now, by showing she does value the views of a few elites, she has inflicted more pain on the city, her allies included

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3025987/carrie-lam-listened-19-hong-kong-elites-after-ignoring-millions

Alice Wu

In evidenza

Manila must play its cards right with Chinese offshore gambling, given Beijing’s warnings (South China Morning Post)

  • The spike in Chinese offshore gambling operators has brought jobs and revenue but also problems. Manila must work with Beijing to crack down on human trafficking, fraud and illegal operators
  • Operators should also be encouraged to diversify investments in the Philippines

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3025954/manila-must-play-its-cards-right-chinese-offshore-gambling-given

Lucio Blanco Pitlo III

In evidenza

The trade war has changed US-China ties forever, so Beijing is building bridges to the EU through the belt and road (South China Morning Post)

  • The trade conflict will more likely than not end in a stalemate, sending Beijing scrambling for sophisticated partners
  • China’s overtures to Europe make sense in this light, since Donald Trump has not shown the foresight to counter them

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3025887/trade-war-has-changed-us-china-ties-forever-so-beijing-building

Anthony Rowley

In evidenza

Despite US unease over China and Russia in the Arctic, there are ways for everyone to be a winner (South China Morning Post)

  • As China deepens Arctic activities and ties with Russia, the US has ramped up both its rhetoric and military spending
  • Given the rich natural resources in the region, finding ways to cooperate is in everyone’s interest

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026007/despite-us-unease-over-china-and-russia-arctic-there-are-ways

Nong Hong

In evidenza

World Suicide Prevention Day is a good time for Hong Kong to come together and move past its protest-filled summer (South China Morning Post)

  • The World Health Organisation identifies suicide as a serious global health challenge whose signs must be recognised
  • And for Hong Kong, recent deaths that have been blamed on the local crisis show the need for reconciliation

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026226/world-suicide-prevention-day-good-time-hong-kong-come-together-and

Paul Yip

In evidenza

Inverted yield curves may alarm Donald Trump and the wealthy, but it’s just more stagnation and inequality for the rest of us (South China Morning Post)

  • Low interest rates after the 2008 crisis limit our response to the next recession, but that’s not the only problem
  • For those who aren’t wealthiest of the wealthy, prevailing low interest rates have meant salaries stagnate and savings evaporate

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026207/inverted-yield-curves-may-alarm-donald-trump-and-wealthy-its-just

David Dodwell

In evidenza

Washington has no right to define HK’s high degree of autonomy (Global Times)

With US Senate and House leaders from both parties pledging to advance the so-called Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, some radical activists demonstrated again on Sunday, calling on US Congress to pass the bill as soon as possible.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1164013.shtml

In evidenza

Frictions won’t jolt US-South Korea alliance (Global Times)

It was reported by South Korean media that the Blue House National Security Council decided on August 30 to push actively for an early return of the remaining 26 US military bases in South Korea. Before the Seoul Defense Dialogue kicked off on Wednesday, speculation was running high that Washington may not send a senior official to take part, though the US embassy in Seoul announced at the last minute that US Forces Korea Commander General Robert Abrams would attend the forum.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163967.shtml

By Dong Xiangrong

In evidenza

How to close understanding gap between China, the US? (Global Times)

Amid a raging trade war, where are China-US relations headed? Are Beijing and Washington enemies? Peter Walker (Walker), author of Powerful, Different, Equal and a senior partner emeritus at McKinsey & Company, shared his insights with Global Times (GT) reporter Yan Yunming.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163794.shtml

 

In evidenza

Solid foreign reserves are basis of China’s resilience (Global Times)

China’s foreign exchange reserves rose by $3.5 billion in August to $3.1072 trillion. Economists polled by Reuters had expected that reserves would fall from July. The increase in August suggested China is doing better than expected at hedging against financial risks.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163993.shtml

By Hu Weijia

In evidenza

Was Israel’s Entry Refusal a Boon or a Bust for Tlaib and Omar? (BESA Center)

The dual abilities of Congresswomen Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar to arouse the ire of President Trump and spout antisemitic, anti-Israel messages with impunity have raised their profile well beyond that of other junior representatives and significantly boosted their popularity. Supporters of Israel, as well as those who care about the interests of the US, will have to strive to defeat them in the next Congressional elections.

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/was-israels-entry-refusal-a-boon-or-a-bust-for-tlaib-and-omar/

By 

In evidenza

Hezbollah’s Demographic Problem Explains Its Restraint (BESA Center)

Hezbollah responded with restraint to Israel’s three-pronged attacks over the past two weeks in Syria, Iraq, and, above all, a neighborhood in Dahiya, the vast Shiite area in Beirut where Hezbollah is headquartered. The organization’s effort to avoid escalation reflects its demographic problem in Lebanon.

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/hezbollah-demographic-problem/

By 

In evidenza

How to close understanding gap between China, the US? (Global Times)

Amid a raging trade war, where are China-US relations headed? Are Beijing and Washington enemies? Peter Walker (Walker), author of Powerful, Different, Equal and a senior partner emeritus at McKinsey & Company, shared his insights with Global Times (GT) reporter Yan Yunming.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163794.shtml

 

In evidenza

Trump government needs to change course and stop the trade war with China (Global Times)

Following a ferocious rhetorical spat between Washington and Beijing over the past two months, the world’s two major powers have agreed to hold high-level trade talks in the US in early October. The world has been watching aghast, concerned that the unprecedented-scale trade war will cause a global recession in 2020.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163813.shtml

By Li Hong

In evidenza

Refugees and irregular migrants in Europe: Self-selection and sorting (VOX)

About 1.4 million refugees and irregular migrants arrived in Europe in 2015 and 2016, but little is known about their socio-demographic characteristics and motivations. This column presents the first large-scale evidence on why those who crossed the Mediterranean in 2015 and 2016 had left their home countries. While the vast majority were escaping conflict, the main motivation for a significant number of migrants from countries such as Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and Pakistan was a desire to seek out better economic opportunities. People who are educated to secondary or tertiary level are more likely to migrate than people with lower levels of education, particularly when fleeing a major conflict, and these people are more likely to head for countries that have more comprehensive migrant integration policies.

https://voxeu.org/article/self-selection-and-sorting-among-refugees-and-irregular-migrants-europe

Cevat Giray Aksoy, Panu Poutvaara

In evidenza

Costs of employment and flexible labour demand: Evidence from maternity and parental leave reforms (VOX)

One factor exacerbating gender gaps in employment is the cost of affording maternity and parental leave to women as primary caregivers. This column analyses the relationship between the costs of providing parental leave and labour demand for childbearing-age women. As evidenced by a series of reforms in Japan in the last two decades, reducing the burden of parental leave costs from firms to social insurance systems increases both labour demand and starting wages for such workers.

https://voxeu.org/article/costs-employment-and-flexible-labour-demand

Yukiko Asai

In evidenza

Economists at war (VOX)

The World Wars precipitated unprecedented economic problems in all countries. This column, part of a Vox debate on the economics of WWII, describes how economists played a larger role in WWII than in any previous conflict. They advanced the methods of public finance and influenced the directions of the war effort. By the end of the war, economists were widely embedded in government and policymaking.

https://voxeu.org/article/economists-war

Alan Bollard

In evidenza

Challenges boost China’s consensus (Global Times)

2019 marks the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This is a year to celebrate. Yet the US-launched trade war against China has escalated, and Hong Kong is experiencing its most serious unrest since its return to China. These are new tests of Chinese society’s solidarity and ability to move forward under complicated circumstances.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163668.shtml

 

In evidenza

Europe must avoid being US pawn on Iran issue (Global Times)

The US on Tuesday imposed sanctions on three Iranian space agencies, accusing Iran of using “its space launch program as cover to advance its ballistic missile programs.” As Washington tightened its sanctions on Tehran, France has reportedly proposed a $15 billion bailout package to Iran in exchange for a return to the nuclear deal and security in the Gulf. The move, at this point in time, is a gesture of goodwill which could make a real difference.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163677.shtml

By Shi Tian

In evidenza

ASEAN war games with US meant to promote centrality of bloc in the region (Global Times)

After holding two joint maritime exercises with China in October 2018 and April 2019, ASEAN members launched their first joint maritime war games with the US from Monday to Friday at a naval base in Chonburi province, east of Bangkok, Thailand.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163659.shtml

By Ge Hongliang

In evidenza

German chancellor’s trip a benchmark in many ways (Global Times)

German Chancellor Angela Merkel kicks off Friday a two-day visit to China, less than 15 months after her last trip to the country. Germany is facing an economic downturn, while populist parties have surged in the country and the international situation is becoming more uncertain. As such, it is worthy of attention whether Merkel’s visit to China, which has some special meaning, could be a new start to the betterment of China-Germany and China-Europe ties.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163770.shtml

By He Zhigao

In evidenza

US unions cannot be overlooked by Chinese businesses (Global Times)

American Factory, a documentary backed by former US President Barack Obama and former first lady Michelle Obama, records the twists and turns that Chinese glass manufacturer Fuyao encountered while setting up a factory in Dayton, Ohio. In 2017, the New York Times reported on the cultural conflicts the Chinese company had encountered.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163673.shtml

By Liu Ge

In evidenza

Why Climb Mount Everest? (Project-Syndicate)

The record number of deaths this year on the world’s tallest mountain underscores the immorality of seeking to reach the summit. But even if you are lucky enough to reach the top without passing a climber in need of help, you are still choosing your personal goal over saving a life.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/immorality-of-climbing-mount-everest-by-peter-singer-2019-09

Peter Singer is Professor of Bioethics at Princeton University, Laureate Professor in the School of Historical and Philosophical Studies at the University of Melbourne, and founder of the non-profit organization The Life You Can Save. His books include Animal LiberationPractical EthicsThe Ethics of What We Eat (with Jim Mason), Rethinking Life and DeathThe Point of View of the Universe, co-authored with Katarzyna de Lazari-Radek, The Most Good You Can DoFamine, Affluence, and MoralityOne World NowEthics in the Real World, and Utilitarianism: A Very Short Introduction, also with Katarzyna de Lazari-Radek. In 2013, he was named the world’s third “most influential contemporary thinker” by the Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute.

In evidenza

Trump’s Mercantilist Mess (Project-Syndicate)

When US President Donald Trump boasted that trade wars are “easy to win” in March 2018, it was convenient to dismiss the remark as a rhetorical flourish. Yet it is now clear that Trump meant it, because he genuinely believes the bizarre and anachronistic macroeconomic theories underlying his approach.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-trade-policy-mercantilism-by-robert-j-barro-2019-09

Robert J. Barro is Professor of Economics at Harvard University and a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. He is co-author (with Rachel M. McCleary) of The Wealth of Religions: The Political Economy of Believing and Belonging.

In evidenza

Money for Nothing (Project-Syndicate)

The persistence of low inflation across advanced economies has led central banks into the realm of zero and even negative policy rates, with the result that government borrowing (and thus spending) is now free. Populist politicians find themselves right at home, while those warning that there is no free lunch will be ignored – until it is too late.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/political-consequences-of-unconventional-monetary-policy-by-harold-james-2019-09

Harold James is Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University and a senior fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation. A specialist on German economic history and on globalization, he is a co-author of the new book The Euro and The Battle of Ideas, and the author of The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization CycleKrupp: A History of the Legendary German Firm, and Making the European Monetary Union.

In evidenza

China is Committed to Multilateralism (Project-Syndicate)

In China’s view, the failure of existing international institutions to adjust to the growing clout of emerging and developing economies undermines the legitimacy of the entire multilateral system. But, far from trying to upend that system, China is working to strengthen it.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-aiib-multilateral-institutions-cooperation-by-xizhou-zhou-2019-09

Xizhou Zhou is a managing director of IHS Markit and heads the firm’s global power and renewables practice.

In evidenza

Muhammad Dahlan and the Deal of the Century (BESA Center)

A controversial former security official and Abu Dhabi-based political operator, Muhammad Dahlan, has lurked for several years in the shadows of Palestinian politics. It is possible that he will emerge in an attempt to pave the way for US president Donald Trump’s much maligned “Deal of the Century” to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/muhammad-dahlan-deal-century/

By

In evidenza

How Sincere Is the Turkey-Iran Friendship? (BESA Center)

If the world press is anything to go by, the Turkey-Iran courtship is getting serious, and Russia is playing best man. The two countries’ strengthening ties are based on shared regional goals, the most prominent of which is Syria. But how sincere is the burgeoning relationship?

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/iran-turkey-friendship/

By

In evidenza

Port d’armes, un sujet de campagne sous surveillance de la NRA. Podcast (IFRI)

Sur la question du port d’armes comme sur bien d’autres sujets, Donald Trump a pris des positions contradictoires. Mais il va falloir qu’il se positionne clairement: après les tueries de cet été, le débat est –encore– revenu à la une. Et la question pourrait bien s’inviter dans la campagne, mais la NRA veille à ce que rien ne bouge.

https://www.ifri.org/fr/espace-media/lifri-medias/port-darmes-un-de-campagne-surveillance-de-nra-podcast

Laurence NARDON, 6ème épisode de la série de podcasts “Trump 2020” en partenariat avec Slate.fr et Time to Sign Off

In evidenza

La dimension sociale de la politique européenne : un nouveau domaine de responsabilité franco-allemande (IFRI)

Pendant des décennies, l’intégration européenne a négligé la politique sociale. En conséquence, l’Union européenne n’est pas considérée comme un acteur crédible dans ce domaine. Dans sa 9e prise de position, le Groupe Daniel Vernet soutient la nécessité d’un renforcement de la dimension sociale du projet européen. Face à ce défi, la France et l’Allemagne doivent contribuer à l’élaboration d’une approche européenne.

https://www.ifri.org/fr/publications/editoriaux-de-lifri/dimension-sociale-de-politique-europeenne-un-nouveau-domaine-de

Groupe Daniel Vernet

In evidenza

Russia’s Military Posture in the Arctic (Chatham House)

Russia’s military posture in the Arctic is informed by the changing geopolitical environment, and can no longer be considered in isolation from the country’s growing tensions with the West.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/file/russia-s-military-posture-arctic

Mathieu Boulègue, Research Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House

In evidenza

Coercing Climate Change (IISS)

At the end of last month’s Group of 7 summit in Biarritz, hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron as fires raged in the Amazon rainforest in Brazil, Macron announced that G7 member nations had approved an £18 million aid package to combat the fires. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro minimised their impact and rejected the help, with US President Donald Trump’s support.

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/survival-blog/2019/09/coercing-climate-change

Bruce Gilley, David Kinsella

In evidenza

Breaking Byte of Religious Extremism (RSIS)

Contemporary societies exist in challenging times because of internal schisms and intra-state conflicts where religious extremism is a significant contributing factor, harming religious harmony and social cohesion. Singapore’s updating of the Maintenance of Religious Harmony Act will empower it to respond swiftly to threats on the religious front.

https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/cens/breaking-byte-of-religious-extremism/#.XXDnwCgzaUk

Muhammad Faizal Bin Abdul Rahman

In evidenza

El-Paso Shootings: Growing Threat of White Supremacists (RSIS)

The 4 August random killings in the US state of Texas is one of several attacks involving far-right terrorists in recent months. Such terrorists, usually white supremacists, are emerging as a transnational terrorist network and spreading in several Western countries. Yet far-right terrorism is not adequately prioritised as a security threat. It is time for a tougher stance against this growing threat.

https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/icpvtr/el-paso-shootings-growing-threat-of-white-supremacists/#.XXDm9CgzaUk

Natasha Quek

In evidenza

The Rise of Economic Nationalism Threatens Global Cooperation (PIIE)

The coordinated policy response of major economic powers to the global financial crisis  of 2008 prevented an even bigger catastrophe.

https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/rise-economic-nationalism-threatens-global-cooperation

Monica de Bolle (PIIE)

In evidenza

Elizabeth Warren’s Approach to Trade Is Inclusive, Green, and Ineffective (PIIE)

If Senator Elizabeth Warren’s policies on trade have a familiar ring, it may be because they echo the unlikely alliance of economic nationalist, labor, and environmental interests championed by previous presidential candidates Patrick Buchanan, Ross Perot, and Ralph Nader, vintage 1993, in opposition to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). A majority of Democrats in Congress also voted against NAFTA.

https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/elizabeth-warrens-approach-trade-inclusive-green-and

Jeffrey J. Schott (PIIE)

In evidenza

Standards for the Digital Economy: Creating an Architecture for Data Collection, Access and Analytics (CIGI)

Canadian industry and thought leaders view digitization as a way to enhance the competitiveness of the economy; digitization can also improve the delivery of services such as health care. In order to achieve this vision, new data value chains are needed. Data value chains would allow participants in existing supply chains to share data, gain new insights, solve problems and become more efficient. Standards are required to clarify the roles and responsibilities of participants in data value chains regarding data collection and grading, data access and sharing, as well as data analytics and solutions. Standards are also necessary to achieve interoperability and set appropriate benchmarks regarding data governance — both necessary preconditions for data sharing between organizations.

https://www.cigionline.org/publications/standards-digital-economy-creating-architecture-data-collection-access-and-analytics

 MICHEL GIRARD

In evidenza

Why the Data Economy Needs Standards to Thrive (CIGI)

Although not visible or understood by the average customer, standards keep the economy running. Standards describe and define the importance of a process, product, service or system. Standards provide a level playing field for industry and help build trust between participants in supply chains. When it comes to tangible goods – from a screw, to a toaster to a car – there’s an expectation that products will have gone through this process of creating a standard so that consumers can know that it’s safe and works properly.

https://www.cigionline.org/multimedia/why-data-economy-needs-standards-thrive

 MICHEL GIRARD

In evidenza

Good news for Hong Kong in leaked Carrie Lam tape: a solution to the unrest is at hand (South China Morning Post)

  • The tape proved that the chief executive and Beijing are both keen to see ‘one country, two systems’ thrive. But it must work both ways
  • For a return to peaceful prosperity, all Hong Kong needs is for Lam to swallow her pride and her financial officials to loosen the purse strings

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3025626/good-news-hong-kong-leaked-carrie-lam-tape-solution-unrest-hand

Richard Harris

In evidenza

Why US claims that China is a currency manipulator are groundless (South China Morning Post)

  • The yuan has appreciated significantly since the global financial crisis, and a review of China’s policy decisions show that it has, in fact, done more than any other major economy to honour its commitment to hold the value of its currency

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3025621/why-us-claims-china-currency-manipulator-are-groundless

Guan Tao

In evidenza

The unrest will ebb, but Hong Kong’s slide into authoritarianism is just beginning (South China Morning Post)

  • The chilling events of the past week – including the multiple arrests of activists and lawmakers, and the brutal police beating of train passengers – underline the erosion of Hong Kong’s freedoms, and of ‘one country, two systems’

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3025504/unrest-will-ebb-hong-kongs-slide-authoritarianism-just-beginning

Michael Chugani

In evidenza

How Cambodia’s online gambling ban sparked the Great Chinese Exodus of 2019 – and why Beijing is fine with it (South China Morning Post)

  • Phnom Pehn’s online gambling crackdown has snared hundreds accused of scamming mainland Chinese, while offering Cambodia a chance to rid itself of an industry that has negatively affected some of its growing cities

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3025687/how-cambodias-online-gambling-ban-sparked-great-chinese-exodus-2019

Bradley J. Murg

In evidenza

Is China the target of Japan’s record-busting defence budget? (South China Morning Post)

  • Tokyo faces myriad threats, from China, North Korea and Russia to cyberattacks on the Summer Olympics
  • And Abe’s golf buddy Trump may not always be around to bail Japan out

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3025668/china-target-japans-record-busting-defence-budget

Rupakjyoti Borah

In evidenza

Emerging Technologies and Managing the Risk of Tech Transfer to China (CSIS)

There are deep interconnections between the U.S. and Chinese economies, and China has built its technology base on what it has acquired from the West. China’s government and some Chinese companies will use any means, legal or illegal, to acquire technology. The United States’ relationship with China cannot continue unchanged, but given the interconnections, change must be managed carefully.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/emerging-technologies-and-managing-risk-tech-transfer-china

James Andrew Lewis

In evidenza

All Medicaid expansions are not created equal: The geography and targeting of the Affordable Care Act (Brookings)

All Medicaid expansions are not created equal: The geography and targeting of the Affordable Care Act

Craig GarthwaiteJohn GravesTal GrossZeynal KaracaVictoria Marone, and Matthew J. Notowidigdo

In evidenza

The Kremlin Experiments Going Unnoticed Ahead of Russian Elections (Carnegie Moscow Center)

A TV star-turned-politician is as good a new model as any for candidates for State Duma elections: someone who criticizes everyone, but then on fundamental issues will always willingly support the authorities. The Kremlin is currently studying the potential of this kind of candidate. The global trend of populists winning; actors, singers and other celebrities turning their hand to politics; and the departure of traditional parties are all things Russia has already seen, and not so long ago either. It would not be hard to return to that time.

https://carnegie.ru/commentary/79776

Andrey Pertsev

In evidenza

The impact of Brexit on UK firms (VOX)

The UK’s decision to leave the EU in the June 2016 referendum was a largely unexpected event that has generated a large, broad, and long-lasting increase in uncertainty. It has also affected some firms more than others depending on the strength of their links to Continental Europe. This column exploits these features and uses a major new survey of UK firms to show that the anticipation of Brexit has already made its mark on the UK economy. It has gradually reduced investment by about 11% and decreased productivity by about 2% to 5% over the three years since the referendum.

https://voxeu.org/article/impact-brexit-uk-firms

Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Scarlet Chen, Paul Mizen, Pawel Smietanka, Gregory Thwaites

In evidenza

The effectiveness of cross-border cooperation in banking supervision (VOX)

Following the Global Crisis, countries have significantly increased their efforts to cooperate on bank supervision, the prime example being the euro area’s Single Supervisory Mechanism. However, little is known about whether such cooperation helps improve the stability of the financial system. Using panel data for a large sample of cross-border banks, this column examines whether a higher incidence of supervisory cooperation is associated with higher bank stability. It finds that supervisory cooperation is effective, working through asset risk, but not for very large banks, which are the ones that pose the highest risk to financial stability.

https://voxeu.org/article/effectiveness-cross-border-cooperation-banking-supervision

Thorsten Beck, Consuelo Silva-Buston, Wolf Wagner

In evidenza

Libra: The known unknowns and unknown unknowns (VOX)

The repercussions and regulatory impact of Facebook’s proposed Libra currency are still unclear. This column, part of the VoxEU debate on the future of digital money, assesses the information as yet made available about Libra, including the implications for its exchangeability, scalability, privacy, and security. It is clear the design of the currency is yet to be finished, and many questions remain about its governance and structure.

https://voxeu.org/article/libra-known-unknowns-and-unknown-unknowns

Barry Eichengreen

In evidenza

New monthly indices of the British stock market, 1829-1929 (VOX)

Although long-run stock market data are an important indicator, obtaining them is challenging. This column constructs new long-run broad-based indices of equities traded on British securities markets for the period 1829-1929 and combines them with a more recent index to examine the timing of British business cycles and compare returns on home and foreign UK investment. One finding is that the capital gains index of blue-chip companies appears to be a good bellwether of macroeconomic behaviour.

https://voxeu.org/article/new-monthly-indices-british-stock-market-1829-1929

Gareth Campbell, Richard Grossman, John Turner

In evidenza

Be wary of US intervention in China-ASEAN cooperation (Global Times)

The US on Monday launched its first joint naval exercise with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) – the ASEAN-US Maritime Exercise. US Rear Admiral Kenneth Whitesell spoke at the opening ceremony of the exercise. He said that Washington has been promoting to counter China’s increasing influence in Asia, including Beijing’s territorial claims in the South China Sea.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163561.shtml

By Li Qingqing

In evidenza

More exchanges may help restore HK order (Global Times)

The violence that erupted in Hong Kong in what began as a peaceful protest against an extradition bill caught the world by surprise. Rioters smashing store windows and attacking police with Molotov cocktails and other makeshift weapons is unacceptable in any law-abiding society. However, international media immediately sided with the violent protester and upbraided the police who used minimum force to quell the rioters.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163590.shtml

By William Jones

In evidenza

Time for decisive battle in Europe for Huawei (Global Times)

The time has come for China’s telecom giant Huawei to fight a decisive battle in Europe against Washington’s crackdown. At this critical moment, the Chinese authorities are unlikely to turn a blind eye to the bullying of Chinese technology companies.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163562.shtml

By Hu Weijia

In evidenza

Your Driver Is Waiting – for a Raise (Project-Syndicate)

In recent years, protests against ride-hailing platforms like Uber have proliferated around the world. Ultimately, however, there is only one way to ensure that such platforms deliver for both riders and drivers: better government regulation.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/strikes-against-uber-lyft-ride-hailing-platforms-by-julie-zollman-and-olga-morawczynski-2019-09

Olga Morawczynski is Senior Program Manager at the Mastercard Foundation.

Julie Zollmann is a PhD candidate at The Fletcher School at Tufts University.

In evidenza

The Renminbi’s Bid for Freedom (Project-Syndicate)

The recent decision by the People’s Bank of China to let the renminbi fall below CN¥7 per US dollar has little to do with trade or currency wars. Rather, it represents an important step by the PBOC toward reforming China’s inflexible exchange-rate regime.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-renminbi-flexible-exchange-rate-by-yu-yongding-2019-09

Yu Yongding, a former president of the China Society of World Economics and director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, served on the Monetary Policy Committee of the People’s Bank of China from 2004 to 2006.

In evidenza

Central Banking’s Bankrupt Narrative (Project-Syndicate)

The combination of low unemployment and stubbornly low inflation across Western advanced economies has exposed the fundamental flaws of the standard economic theory that have long informed monetary policymaking. What theory should replace it?

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/central-banks-flawed-economic-theory-by-roger-farmer-2019-09

Roger E.A. Farmer is Professor of Economics at the University of Warwick, emeritus Professor of Economics at UCLA, Research Director at the National Institute of Economic Research, and the author, most recently, of Prosperity for All: How to Prevent Financial Crises.

In evidenza

America’s Uneven Future of Work (Project-Syndicate)

Because automation and artificial intelligence will change the nature of work for everyone, Americans who are vulnerable to technological disruption would appear to have been created equal. In fact, some workers are more equal than others.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/occupational-demographic-and-geographic-disparities-in-job-displacement-by-laura-tyson-and-susan-lund-2019-09

Susan Lund is a partner of McKinsey & Company and a leader at the McKinsey Global Institute.

Laura Tyson, a former chair of the US President’s Council of Economic Advisers, is a professor at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, a senior adviser at the Rock Creek Group, and a senior external adviser to the McKinsey Global Institute.

In evidenza

Israel’s New Existential Challenge (BESA Center)

The creation of an Iranian military/terrorist axis along Israel’s northern and southern borders, comprising Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad, lays the groundwork for the long-term multi-frontal attrition of the Jewish state.

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/israel-existential-challenge/

By

In evidenza

Making Artificial Intelligence Work for Everyone (Chatham House)

Kriti Sharma, technologist and artificial intelligence expert, speaks to Lyndsey Jefferson about the possibilities of AI and how to make sure humans benefit from its rapid advancement. Kriti is the founder of AI for Good UK, an organization that uses AI technology to tackle humanitarian challenges.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/making-artificial-intelligence-work-everyone

Lyndsey Jefferson, Kriti Sharma

In evidenza

Dousing the Sovereignty Wildfire (Bruegel)

In time, the current spat between French President Emmanuel Macron and his Brazilian counterpart Jair Bolsonaro regarding the Amazon rainforest may become a mere footnote. But other rows between collective and national interests are sure to erupt, and the world needs to find a way to manage them.

https://bruegel.org/2019/09/dousing-the-sovereignty-wildfire/

BY: 

In evidenza

Braver, greener, fairer: Memos to the EU leadership 2019-2024 (Bruegel)

This collected volume, edited by Maria Demertzis and Guntram Wolff, focusing on the most important economic questions at EU level. The memos covering 16 different files and written by 21 Bruegel scholars, are intended to present the strategic to-do list based on an assessment of the state of affairs and the challenges that will greet the new Commissioners.

https://bruegel.org/2019/09/memos-2019/

BY:  AND 

In evidenza

Defending Singapore Against Foreign Interference (RSIS)

Foreign interference is the invisible hand of foreign states seeking to undermine a target state’s national interests. It affects the target state from the inside by infiltrating its national institutions and people. It is a threat that smaller states like Singapore must defend against while navigating an increasingly contested world.

https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/cens/defending-singapore-against-foreign-interference/#.XW98iygzaUk

Muhammad Faizal Bin Abdul Rahman

In evidenza

The Amazon Is Burning. Bolsonaro Fanned the Flames (PIIE)

Global warming is widely and correctly blamed for the fires raging in the Amazon rainforest and elsewhere around the world. But the tragedy in Brazil represents a public policy failure of a more manageable and unforgiveable sort. It is not just the Brazilian inability to fight the fires. The country’s scientists agree that the Amazon fires are mostly man-made, intended to clear land for farming, cattle grazing, and other activities, some illegal. But under President Jair Bolsonaro, the government’s long-standing efforts to curb these illegal activities have fallen by the wayside, with disastrous results.

https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/amazon-burning-bolsonaro-fanned-flames

Monica de Bolle (PIIE)

In evidenza

China broke its promises to Hong Kong. That’s why the protest movement is back with a vengeance (South China Morning Post)

  • Beijing has not really let Hong Kong people rule Hong Kong, contrary to the principle underpinning the Basic Law. When dissent is suppressed without resolving the underlying issue, protest just emerges in another form

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3025385/china-broke-its-promises-hong-kong-thats-why-protest-movement-back

Markus Shaw

In evidenza

How much economic pain can China tolerate in the trade war? Donald Trump is about to find out (South China Morning Post)

  • A buying frenzy over pork in Shanghai might be a sign of economic trouble or an after-effect of the swine flu epidemic. Either way, it raises questions about the Chinese people’s capacity for withstanding the fallout from the US trade war

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3025488/how-much-economic-pain-can-china-tolerate-trade-war-donald-trump

Chiu-Ti Jansen

In evidenza

As Indonesia mulls a move away from direct presidential elections, is dynastic politics here to stay? (South China Morning Post)

  • President Joko Widodo is part of a new crop of Indonesian politicians elected without a famous family name or political links
  • But the country’s political elite, including former president Megawati, are proposing changes to the way the president is elected

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3025445/indonesia-mulls-move-away-direct-presidential-elections-dynastic

Johannes Nugroho

In evidenza

If Carrie Lam declares an emergency in Hong Kong, she will be defying the rule of law (South China Morning Post)

  • The Basic Law does not give Hong Kong’s chief executive the power to ‘officially proclaim’ a state of emergency
  • The city’s leader therefore has no lawful power to make emergency regulations that would comply with Hong Kong’s international treaty obligations and own bill of rights

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3025261/if-carrie-lam-declares-emergency-hong-kong-she-will-be-defying-rule

Erik Shum , Wing Kay Po

In evidenza

Another China Round (CSIS)

Having not focused exclusively on China for several weeks, it is now time to return to it. Too many things have happened in the past few weeks to ignore it. Most of the events did not fundamentally alter the situation, although there does appear to be a change of thinking on both sides that will make resolution more difficult.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/another-china-round

William Alan Reinsch

In evidenza

Are Sanctions Working in Venezuela? (CSIS)

As the United States, the Lima Group, the European Union, and other like-minded nations continue to increase pressure on the regime of Nicolás Maduro with diplomatic measures such as challenging his government’s legitimacy, the question remains as to whether sanctions are an effective measure for changing the behavior of the Venezuelan regime and pushing Maduro to step down. Despite external support by Russia, Cuba, China, and a few others, Maduro is more alienated on the world stage than ever before. That said, stiff sanctions and diplomatic isolation have not yet convinced Maduro to negotiate his exit while his regime has proven to be resilient and adaptable As the humanitarian crisis deteriorates further, a debate has raged on among policymakers who worry that sanctions may be worsening conditions for Venezuelan citizens. This brief provides clarity on this complex issue. This report will assess the efficacy of past sanctions, as well as their impact on standards of living in Venezuela, and provide recommendations for improving policy in this area.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/are-sanctions-working-venezuela

Moises Rendon, Max Price

 

In evidenza

ASEAN needs more than an ‘outlook’ on the Indo-Pacific (East Asia Forum)

ASEAN released its ‘Outlook on the Indo-Pacific’ during the grouping’s late June annual summit. The document represents the grouping’s reaction to efforts by the United States, Australia, India and Japan to link their interests in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. It acknowledges from the outset that ASEAN members sit astride the two regions and developments in either invariably affect them.

https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2019/09/03/asean-needs-more-than-an-outlook-on-the-indo-pacific/

Author: Ja Ian Chong, NUS

In evidenza

Polish WWII anniversary highlights transatlantic rifts (ECFR)

A hurricane has forced the US president to cancel his state visit to Poland to mark a dark day in history — but that won’t hide the damage he has done to US-German-Polish relations.

https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_polish_wwii_anniversary_highlights_transatlantic_rifts

Piotr Buras

In evidenza

Border games: Has Spain found an answer to the populist challenge on migration? (ECFR)

  • Spain, and Europe, need a new story about migration – there is some recognition of this in Spain but it remains to be seen how the country will put this into practice.
  • Spaniards are relatively open towards migration, but the policy challenge for their government should be to allay, and not provoke, fears of migrant invasion.
  • The Spanish government has called for reform of the EU asylum system, favouring solidarity and shared responsibility as opposed to simply stopping ‘secondary movements’.
  • Spain’s migration diplomacy aspires to work with origin and transit countries rather than acting in a coercive way towards them.
  • The Spanish experience should inform EU member states’ efforts to seek to answers to the populist challenge: they should enact comprehensive, planned, and proactive policies that see migration as normal and necessary.

https://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/border_games_spain_answer_to_the_populist_challenge_on_migration

Shoshana Fine José Ignacio Torreblanca

In evidenza

Official Visit Symbolizes New U.S. Attitude to Belarus (Carnegie Moscow Center)

Both Belarusian officials and U.S. presidential adviser John Bolton were quick to put out the message that the visit was more about form than content. Bolton said openly that no issues had been resolved at the meeting, but that he had not expected otherwise. Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei said that no one was enticing Minsk over to any side, and that the two sides had simply agreed to keep communicating.

https://carnegie.ru/commentary/79765

Artyom Shraibman

In evidenza

Idealism vs. Reality: Ukraine’s New Government Prepares for Challenges (Carnegie Moscow Center)

The new Ukrainian government’s main problem is the harsh reality awaiting it. The majority of the new ministers—progressive young idealists who have studied at Western universities, founders of successful startups—may not be sufficiently familiar with the conditions of everyday life in the country away from the post-industrial digital economy clusters. A collision with that reality could be a shock, both for the reformers themselves and for Ukrainian society, which is desperate for immediate change.

https://carnegie.ru/commentary/79761

Konstantin Skorkin

In evidenza

Technology diffusion trajectories: New evidence (VOX)

The diffusion of novel technologies plays a crucial role in stimulating economic growth, but when a novel technology appears it is difficult to predict its later diffusion trajectory in terms of follow-on inventions. This column shows how the antecedents of a novel technology characterise its diffusion pattern by identifying the diffusion trajectories for a large sample of novel technologies using large-scale patent information. Riskier types of novel technologies, while having a larger technological impact, are taken up more slowly.

https://voxeu.org/article/technology-diffusion-trajectories-new-evidence

Michele Pezzoni, Reinhilde Veugelers, Fabiana Visentin

In evidenza

Understanding what works for active labour market policies (VOX)

Eduardo Levy Yeyati, Martín Montané, Luca Sartorio
In evidenza

The preferred creditor puzzle in sovereign debt markets (VOX)

Countries almost always repay loans from the IMF and the World Bank before others, even though this preferred treatment rarely appears in legal contracts. This column presents a framework to investigate this puzzle. It argues that the ability to restrict lending allows international financial institutions to lend at the risk-free rate and creates incentives for repayment. IMF and World Bank loans are thus complementary to commercial lending.

https://voxeu.org/article/preferred-creditor-puzzle-sovereign-debt-markets

Tito Cordella, Andrew Powell

In evidenza

The potential dangers of immigration ‘point systems’: Lessons from the history of Danish American communities in the US (VOX)

In evidenza

Young traitors to ruin themselves (Global Times)

Two young leaders of violent protests in Hong Kong, Joshua Wong Chi-fung and Alex Chow Yong-kang, published an article in The New York Times on Saturday, urging US legislators to vote on the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019, which would “give the president of the United States the power to penalize Chinese officials who interfere in Hong Kong affairs.”

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163457.shtml

In evidenza

Cooperating with China helps improve EU’s competitiveness (Global Times)

German Chancellor Angela Merkel will reportedly visit China from Friday to Saturday with a large delegation of German CEOs. Analysts believe a prime objective of the trip is to ensure that German-Chinese trade relations remain on track.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163456.shtml

By Xu Hailin

In evidenza

Trump delusional in believing trade war will not harm US (Global Times)

US President Donald Trump reportedly signaled on August 25 he might regret launching a trade war against China. It was the first time he had made such remarks as widespread debate ensued over whether or not he would make policy adjustments. Hours later, the White House denied all speculations, claiming that Trump was “greatly misinterpreted,” in an attempt to prevent more damage from the president’s words.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163453.shtml

By Zhang Tengjun

In evidenza

Testing time for Apple in China as trade war grinds on (Global Times)

Apple Inc is expected to debut its updated iPhone on September 10. Even if the California-based company offers no exciting, breakthrough design, there’s no need to be overly pessimistic about its retail sales outlook in the Chinese market.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163455.shtml

By Hu Weijia

In evidenza

Germany’s Divided Soul (Project-Syndicate)

Eastern Germans vote, think, and feel differently than western Germans do, as the results of the September 1 regional elections make clear. To help tackle the underlying economic causes of this divide, the federal government should introduce incentives to encourage foreign investment in the east of the country.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/germany-economic-psychological-divide-by-dalia-marin-2019-09

Dalia Marin is Professor of Economics at the University of Munich and a research fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

In evidenza

Myths of Kashmir (Project-Syndicate)

India is wedged between two nuclear-armed allies that routinely defy fundamental international rules and norms. Until China and Pakistan stop trying to undermine its territorial sovereignty in Jammu and Kashmir, India will have little choice but to take steps to protect itself.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/jammu-kashmir-special-status-india-pakistan-china-terrorism-by-brahma-chellaney-2019-08

Brahma Chellaney, Professor of Strategic Studies at the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research and Fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin, is the author of nine books, including Asian JuggernautWater: Asia’s New Battleground, and <em=” “=”” target=”_blank”><em=”>Water, Peace, and War: Confronting the Global Water Crisis.

In evidenza

The Twilight of the Global Order (Project-Syndicate)

The recent G7 summit in Biarritz signaled a broader shift in international governance away from constructive cooperation and toward vague discussions and ad hoc solutions. The conclusion of the summit could be a marker of the world order’s future – ending not with a bang, but with a whimper.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/g7-summit-biarritz-erosion-of-global-order-by-ana-palacio-2019-08

Ana Palacio is former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Spain and former Senior Vice President and General Counsel of the World Bank Group. She is a visiting lecturer at Georgetown University.

In evidenza

Dousing the Sovereignty Wildfire (Project-Syndicate)

In time, the current spat between French President Emmanuel Macron and his Brazilian counterpart Jair Bolsonaro regarding the Amazon rainforest may become a mere footnote. But other rows between collective and national interests are sure to erupt, and the world needs to find a way to manage them.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/amazon-highlights-need-to-douse-the-sovereignty-wildfire-by-jean-pisani-ferry-2019-08

Jean Pisani-Ferry, a professor at the Hertie School of Governance (Berlin) and Sciences Po (Paris), holds the Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa chair at the European University Institute and is a senior fellow at Bruegel, a Brussels-based think tank.

In evidenza

The EU Is Battling Israel in Area C (BESA Center)

Ever since a decision in January 2012, the EU has been expressly committed to the expansion of illegal Palestinian settlement in Area C in conjunction with the PA. This is in blatant disregard of the Oslo accords, which the EU purports to uphold. The object is to create continuous Palestinian settlement throughout the West Bank and thereby isolate and strangle Israeli communities.

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/eu-battling-israel-area-c/

By

In evidenza

The Danger of Israeli Public Apathy Regarding Palestinian Construction in Area C (BESA Center)

While Israeli Jews continue to move into urban centers, the Palestinians have been assuming sovereignty in the open lands and leaving the Jews with personal sovereignty solely in their areas of residence. This trend is not restricted to the West Bank. It is also occurring in the Negev, the Galilee, and the Jezreel Valley, where Jews are moving into high-rise buildings while non-Jews are taking control of the open spaces. A contributing factor to this dangerous trend is the complete lack of interest in the subject displayed by most of the Israeli public.

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/israeli-apathy-palestinian-construction-area-c/

By

In evidenza

Israel Must Remain Vigilant in Its Relations with Poland (BESA Center)

In view of Poland’s historical treatment of Jews, Israel must remain ever-vigilant that there be no falsification of history as Polish-Israeli relations develop. There is a strong desire in Poland to whitewash or otherwise minimize horrible events. Provided the Israeli authorities calibrate their statements and stick to the facts, they will maintain the moral high ground in the relationship.  

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/israel-relations-poland/

By

In evidenza

Turquie : la puissance selon Erdogan ? (IFRI)

Recep Tayyip Erdogan a remis la Turquie sur le devant de la scène internationale en effaçant les humiliations de l’Histoire et en lui redonnant une position centrale entre Occident et Orient. Mais en concentrant tous les pouvoirs et en bridant les libertés à l’excès, il s’expose aujourd’hui à la contestation, exacerbée par la récession économique. Erdogan est-il allé trop loin dans ses ambitions de puissance ?

https://www.ifri.org/fr/espace-media/lifri-medias/turquie-puissance-selon-erdogan-0

Dorothée SCHMID, auteur de l’émission “Les Dessous des cartes” sur la Turquie sur ARTE (en partenariat avec l’Ifri)

In evidenza

Russie : un apprentissage de la contestation ? (IFRI)

Le 8 septembre prochain, des élections sont organisées à Moscou afin de renouveler le Parlement local. Cet été, soixante candidats indépendants s’étaient vus rejeter l’accès à cette échéance, provoquant d’importantes mobilisations dans la capitale russe.

https://www.ifri.org/fr/espace-media/lifri-medias/russie-un-apprentissage-de-contestation

Tatiana KASTOUEVA-JEAN, invitée par Christine Ockrent dans “Affaires étrangères” sur France Culture

In evidenza

Spotlight on Ukraine’s Parliament Elections: Vox Pops (Chatham House)

The new president Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s party managed to score the first parliamentary majority in the history of independent Ukraine. The Ukraine Forum talks to people on the streets of Kyiv about their expectations from the new parliament.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/file/spotlight-ukraine-s-parliament-elections-vox-pops

In evidenza

Why Europe needs a change of mind-set to fend off the risks of recession (Bruegel)

Recession! This is the new worry in Europe and the US. A simple look at google trends shows that in Germany, France and the US, search interest for recession peaked in the last weeks. In Italy, the peak already occurred end of January. Whether a recession is actually occurring is difficult to gauge in real time. But there can be no doubt that significant risks such as the trade war and no-deal Brexit exist.

https://bruegel.org/2019/09/why-europe-needs-a-change-of-mind-set-to-fend-off-the-risks-of-recession/

BY: 

In evidenza

China’s changing response to militancy in Pakistan (IISS)

As China’s investments along the Belt and Road expand, its organisations and workers are increasingly vulnerable to security threats. While China is ratcheting up pressure on Pakistan to deal with militants, it is also taking measures to secure its own interests, writes Barbara Kelemen.

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2019/09/csdp-militancy-in-pakistan

Barbara Kelemen

In evidenza

The EU’s Cultural Diplomacy: What Role for Cities? (CIDOB)

Cities are one of the “under-explored potentials” of EU external cultural relations. With the EU’s new chief diplomat, Josep Borrell, taking office on 1 November there is an opportunity to review the EU’s cultural diplomacy and give cities and their local governments real consideration as partners that could help implement the new spirit of intercultural dialogue on the ground and inform future EU policies and actions.

https://www.cidob.org/en/publications/publication_series/opinion/ciudades_globales/the_eu_s_cultural_diplomacy_what_role_for_cities

Author:Hannah Abdullah, Researcher and Project Manager, CIDOB

In evidenza

The Talented Mr Johnson? (CIDOB)

Can ‘no deal’ really be Boris Johnson’s game-plan? He must know that ‘no deal’ would be disastrous for the UK and he would not survive long in No.10 if he took the nation over that cliff. His likely underlying strategy is to keep the votes of the right together under the Tory umbrella by pushing no deal. At the same time he hopes to keep the opposition divided sufficient so that he can come through the middle and win a general election. The objective all along would be to maintain Johnson in power, not to do a no deal Brexit.

https://www.cidob.org/en/publications/publication_series/opinion/europa/the_talented_mr_johnson

Author:Alan Riley, Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council, Washington DC

In evidenza

Has China forgotten how order was restored to Hong Kong after the 2003 Article 23 national security protests? (South China Morning Post)

  • Instead of hardline tactics and threats of military intervention, Hu Jintao’s administration defused the crisis by collecting public opinion from Hong Kong directly, holding local leaders accountable and increasing economic reassurances

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3025171/has-china-forgotten-how-order-was-restored-hong-kong-after-2003

David A. Rezvani

In evidenza

Is Donald Trump being brave or crazy in China trade war? US president should pick a stance and stick to it (South China Morning Post)

  • Donald Trump berates American companies doing business with China, and in the next breath showers ‘great leader’ Xi Jinping with praise
  • Instead of a Jekyll and Hyde act on China trade, the US president should just go all out, in any one direction

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3025318/trump-being-brave-or-crazy-china-trade-war-us-president-should-pick

Robert Delaney

In evidenza

A strong US dollar worries Trump, but it’s no use blaming the Fed or China (South China Morning Post)

  • It is Donald Trump’s own policies that have helped to create the right conditions for continued greenback strength
  • With intervention a risky idea, unless those policies change, there is little to be gained from the blame game

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3025387/strong-us-dollar-worries-trump-its-no-use-blaming-fed-or-china

Neal Kimberley

In evidenza

Tiananmen’s lesson: if Hong Kong’s protesters want a fight, Beijing will certainly give it to them (South China Morning Post)

  • The leaders of China’s Communist Party have learned from both Tiananmen and the fall of the Soviet Union not to give in
  • The mainland Chinese public also appears to have little sympathy for Hongkongers, which will free Beijing’s hand to act decisively

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3025321/tiananmens-lesson-if-hong-kongs-protesters-want-fight-beijing-will

Josef Gregory Mahoney

In evidenza

Amid protest violence and dire warnings for Hong Kong’s economy, mainland property investors provide some hope (South China Morning Post)

  • Behind the – deservedly – gloomy headlines about the economy, mainlanders remain bullish on Hong Kong. This is especially true of office property around Central, and suggests the city is still crucial to China’s plans

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3025309/amid-protest-violence-and-dire-warnings-hong-kongs-economy-mainland

Nicholas Spiro

In evidenza

Loosened monetary policy will lead to opportunities in Asia-Pacific real estate (South China Morning Post)

  • Monetary policy is expected to stay very supportive through to the end of 2020
  • Supportive financial conditions should, however, not be taken as a catalyst for more aggressive investing

https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3025438/loosened-monetary-policy-will-lead-opportunities-asia-pacific-real-estate

Harry Tan

In evidenza

Attitude matters: Investor ambiguity, leverage cycles, and asset prices (VOX)

Macroeconomic models with credit frictions do a good job of explaining debt falls during financial crises, but fail to account for pre-crisis debt increases and level pro-cyclicality. This column introduces a model in which investors’ beliefs about future collateral values are non-linear. Greater ambiguity optimism during booms and greater aversion during recessions closely model the empirical shifts seen before and during financial crises, highlighting the joint role of financial frictions and beliefs distortions for market developments

https://voxeu.org/article/investor-ambiguity-leverage-cycles-and-asset-prices

Marzio Bassanin, Ester Faia, Valeria Patella

In evidenza

Girls, boys, and high achievers (VOX)

The effect of class gender composition and the effect of peer ability on outcomes are usually examined separately. This column asks whether there are long-term consequences to attending a high school with a larger or smaller number of female or male high achievers. Using data on students in grades 7-12 from a nationally representative sample of roughly 130 private and public schools, it shows that high-achieving boys have a negative and persistent effect on girls’ longer-run education outcomes, but no significant effect on boys’ outcomes.

https://voxeu.org/article/girls-boys-and-high-achievers

Angela Cools, Raquel Fernández, Eleonora Patacchini

In evidenza

Will Boris Johnson’s Political Coup Succeed? (Project-Syndicate)

The UK’s prime minister is probably right to think that suspending Parliament has made a last-minute Brexit deal more likely. Fortunately, there is also a decent chance that his quasi-dictatorial behavior will provoke a rapid parliamentary backlash that ends his political career.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/boris-johnson-suspension-of-parliament-could-work-by-anatole-kaletsky-2019-08

Anatole Kaletsky is Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics. A former columnist at the Times of London, the International New York Times and the Financial Times, he is the author of Capitalism 4.0: The Birth of a New Economy in the Aftermath of Crisis, which anticipated many of the post-crisis transformations of the global economy. His 1985 book, Costs of Default, became an influential primer for Latin American and Asian governments negotiating debt defaults and restructurings with banks and the IMF.

In evidenza

The Reforms Kazakhstan Needs (Project-Syndicate)

Appeasing Kazakhstan’s people – and thus stabilizing its politics – must take priority over economic reform. That means, first and foremost, credible and concerted action to root out corruption and strengthen the rule of law.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/kazakhstan-protests-demand-political-reform-fight-corruption-by-kassymkhan-kapparov-2019-08

Kassymkhan Kapparov is a director at the Bureau for Economic Research of Kazakhstan.

In evidenza

More Than a Trade War (Project-Syndicate)

US President Donald Trump’s trade war with China is driven at least as much by anxiety over China’s rise as by economic rationality. As the ancient Greek historian Thucydides observed – and as contemporary behavioral economists have confirmed – that kind of insecurity can have disastrous consequences.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/thucydides-trap-sino-american-trade-war-by-koichi-hamada-2019-08

Koichi Hamada is Professor Emeritus at Yale University and a special adviser to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

In evidenza

What Divides NATO? (Project-Syndicate)

The current debate about the presence of American troops in Poland is sometimes seen as pitting that country against Germany. But this misses the point: What is really at stake is European coherence in the face of the United States’ increasingly uncertain role within NATO.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/why-nato-stands-divided-by-marco-overhaus-2019-08

Marco Overhaus is a senior researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin and the author of a recent study on US policy toward NATO.

In evidenza

Putin’s 20th Anniversary as the Leader of Russia (BESA Center)

Vladimir Putin’s government might be proud of many internal as well as foreign achievements, but strategically, Russia has fallen well behind the West. Putin is partly to blame, though titanic shifts in world politics and Russian history have dwarfed his ability to influence events. Russia’s geography and poverty also limit his ability to pull off grand reforms inside the country.

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/putin-20th-anniversary/

By

In evidenza

Comparing Netanyahu and Ben-Gurion (BESA Center)

In a recent landmark, Benjamin Netanyahu became Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, surpassing the tenure of David Ben-Gurion. A comparison of the two PMs’ leadership reveals points of both similarity and difference. Both leaders, even in the views of their opponents, left a major impact on the country and the society.

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/netanyahu-ben-gurion/

By

In evidenza

The Future of EU–US Cooperation in Space Traffic Management and Space Situational Awareness (Chatham House)

As more space activities develop, there is an increasing requirement for comprehensive space situational awareness (SSA). This paper provides an overview of the current landscape in SSA and space traffic management as well as possible scenarios for EU–US cooperation in this area.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/future-eu-us-cooperation-space-traffic-management-and-space-situational-awareness

Alexandra Stickings

In evidenza

Border Carbon Tariffs: Giving Up on Trade to Save the Climate? (Bruegel)

Ursula von der Leyen plans to introduce a border carbon tax to avoid that cutting EU carbon emissions forces EU companies to move their activities abroad. But will this tax trigger a conflict between climate preservation and the multilateral trading system, or can trade and climate preservation coexist?

https://bruegel.org/2019/08/border-carbon-tariffs-giving-up-on-trade-to-save-the-climate/

BY:  AND 

In evidenza

To Beijing, the Hong Kong protest unrest is now a threat on a national level (South China Morning Post)

  • The unrest must stop. This is no longer just about Hong Kong but a matter of China’s national sovereignty and security. For Hongkongers to ignore Beijing’s messages or shrug them off is a big mistake

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3024751/beijing-hong-kong-protest-unrest-now-threat-national-level

Bernard Chan

In evidenza

Hong Kong is irreplaceable for China. That’s why the PLA hasn’t rolled in yet (South China Morning Post)

  • Hong Kong is still China’s critical gateway to multinational capital, and mainland banks, now worth US$1.2 trillion, hold overseas assets concentrated in the city. China simply can’t afford to destroy Hong Kong’s commercial freedoms

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3024689/hong-kong-irreplaceable-china-thats-why-pla-hasnt-rolled-yet

Richard Harris

In evidenza

China and the US should be wary of the historical parallels with 1914 (South China Morning Post)

  • A catalyst setting a rising power and its allies against an entrenched power in a bloody conflict where no one wins? It happened last century in Europe, and could again if Beijing cracks down hard on Hong Kong

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3024696/could-hong-kong-protests-lead-another-world-war-china-and-us-should

Phil C. W. Chan

Niklas Swanström

In evidenza

For investors, Donald Trump’s tweets just sow confusion. In the trade war with China, they undermine his own position (South China Morning Post)

  • The president’s Twitter missives make news, but their erratic musings also make for confusion about US policy direction
  • Even his negotiating partners in Beijing are starting to realise that such ramblings reveal he won’t honour any deal

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3024824/investors-donald-trumps-tweets-just-sow-confusion-trade-war-china

Nicholas Spiro

In evidenza

It’s bananas: global food crisis warning that the Asia-Pacific can’t afford to ignore (South China Morning Post)

  • The deadly Panama disease fungus has arrived in South America, threatening the world banana trade and highlighting species vulnerability amid climate change
  • The Cavendish banana is in the vanguard of a food security challenge that can only get more severe. Apec food ministers’ silence on this in Chile was inexplicable

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3025030/its-bananas-global-food-crisis-warning-asia-pacific-cant-afford

David Dodwell

In evidenza

South Korea and Japan must break the cycle of hate and move on for the region’s good, as US power wanes (IISS)

Tokyo and Seoul have sought to resolve their latest dispute, but they need to address deep-rooted issues that threaten the strategic balance of the region. One side needs to show genuine contrition and the other side needs to forgive, writes William Choong.

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2019/08/south-korea-japan-dispute

 

William Choong

In evidenza

Malaysia-China Relations: An Upward Trajectory? (RSIS)

Initial expectations of a tougher line against China under the new Pakatan Harapan (PH) government have been premature. Relations instead are on an upward trajectory as the PH government hopes to benefit from engagement with China. Will this last?

https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/rsis/malaysia-china-relations-an-upward-trajectory/#.XWjTCOgzaUk

Nawaljeet Singh Rayar

In evidenza

China’s Manufacturing Job Losses Are Not What They Seem (PIIE)

President Donald Trump’s latest misrepresentation about the Chinese economy would have you believe that China’s manufacturing sector is on the ropes and that President Xi Jinping has no choice but to yield to US demands on trade. In July 2019, for example, President Trump tweeted that China has lost 5 million jobs, with 2 million lost in manufacturing, as a result of his tariffs. At the end of the G-7 meetings in Biarritz in August 2019,  he said, “They lost 3 million jobs in a short period of time,” using a lower number.

https://www.piie.com/blogs/china-economic-watch/chinas-manufacturing-job-losses-are-not-what-they-seem

Nicholas R. Lardy (PIIE)

In evidenza

Military parade to demonstrate China’s rising capability (Global Times)

China officially announced on Thursday that it will hold a grand military parade on October 1 to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. Some foreign media have highlighted the size of the parade and speculated on the advanced weapons that may be unveiled.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163111.shtml

 

In evidenza

Basketball displays basic rule of globalization (Global Times)

Jeremy Lin, the Chinese-American basketball player, on Wednesday bid farewell to the NBA and signed to play with the Beijing Shougang Ducks in the upcoming season of the Chinese Basketball Association (CBA). On August 16, Alibaba Executive Vice Chairman Joseph Tsai bought the NBA’s Brooklyn Nets and the team’s arena, the Barclay Center. Tsai is taking full ownership of the Brooklyn Nets.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163110.shtml

By Li Qingqing

In evidenza

US missiles plan could spark arms race (Global Times)

The US tested a conventionally configured ground-launched cruise missile on August 19 shortly after it formally withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, making it quite clear that these are all long-planned moves.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1163107.shtml

By Li Daguang

In evidenza

Suppressing Huawei beyond US security concerns: expert (Global Times)

Today, cybersecurity has become a hot topic worldwide, with Huawei and 5G technology at the center of the storm. How is cybersecurity connected with geopolitics? In what way will cyber geopolitics influence a country’s diplomacy? How to establish effective diplomatic mechanism in cyberspace? During the seminar “The Geopolitics of Cyberspace: A Diplomatic Perspective” organized by the Charhar Institute on Monday, Global Times (GT) reporter Li Qingqing talked to Shaun Riordan (