All human interaction is characterized by a mixture of competition and cooperation, and that extends to international trade and monetary policy. Which approach is preferable depends on the context, including what the other players are doing.
Koichi Hamada is Professor Emeritus at Yale University and a special adviser to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
After the global risk-off of late 2018, a newfound dovishness on the part of central bankers has combined with other positive developments to revive investors’ animal spirits. But with a wide array of financial and political risks clearly in view, one should not assume that the current ebullience will last the year.
Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.
Is poor governance behind the Philippine water crisis?
Author: Agnes C Rola, University of the Philippines Los Baños
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s Faustian pact with the far right may have clinched him a narrow victory in the latest election, but it has come at the expense of Israel’s democracy as well as its security. Those who still yearn for peace have no choice but to keep hope alive and await a generation of more enlightened leadership.
Javier Solana was EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Secretary-General of NATO, and Foreign Minister of Spain. He is currently President of the ESADE Center for Global Economy and Geopolitics, Distinguished Fellow at the Brookings Institution, and a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Europe.
This study explores the strategic-military implications of the establishment of a Palestinian state along the pre-June 1967 lines. Its central thesis is that the creation of such a state, on the heels of the IDF’s total withdrawal from the West Bank, will not only deprive Israel of defensible borders but will almost certainly lead to the advent of a terrorist entity like the one created in the Gaza Strip – at a stone’s throw from the Israeli hinterland.
By Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen
In the decade since the European Union forged a stronger partnership with the Eastern European countries on Russia’s doorstep, the Kremlin has tried desperately to reassert its sphere of influence, even launching illegal incursions into Ukraine. Yet it is now clear that Russia’s efforts have backfired spectacularly.
Carl Bildt was Sweden’s foreign minister from 2006 to October 2014 and Prime Minister from 1991 to 1994, when he negotiated Sweden’s EU accession. A renowned international diplomat, he served as EU Special Envoy to the Former Yugoslavia, High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, UN Special Envoy to the Balkans, and Co-Chairman of the Dayton Peace Conference. He is Chair of the Global Commission on Internet Governance and a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Europe.
Contrary to sci-fi dystopias in which the machines become conscious and take over, artificial-intelligence applications will do only what humans tell them to do. So it is in everyone’s interest to consider how technologies such as self-driving cars will navigate life-or-death ethical dilemmas in the real world.
Mark Esposito, Professor of Business and Economics with appointments at Hult International Business School and Harvard University, is a co-founder of Nexus FrontierTech and a Fellow at the Mohammed Bin Rashid School of Government in Dubai and Judge Business School in Cambridge.
Terence Tse, Professor at ESCP Europe Business School in London, is a co-founder of Nexus FrontierTech.
Joshua Entsminger is a Researcher at Nexus FrontierTech and Senior Fellow at Ecole des Ponts Center for Policy and Competitiveness.
Aurélie Jean, a computational scientist, is founder of In Silico Veritas, an adviser for the Boston Consulting Group, and an external collaborator with France’s Ministry of Education.
With the world facing increasingly serious environmental threats, European leaders should make a green Europe their number-one priority for the coming years. Such a program should focus on three main goals: carbon neutrality, responsible use of resources, and preserving biodiversity.
Michel Barnier is a former vice president of the European Commission and French Minister of Foreign Affairs. He is currently EU chief negotiator for Brexit.
This paper highlights a number of options for managing electricity infrastructure in refugee camps and outlines the challenges, opportunities and operational implications associated with them. It takes the Kalobeyei settlement in Kenya as a case study.
Laura Patel, Ben Good, Abishek Bharadwaj, Shahid Chaudhry
China’s sprawling infrastructure program has become a test
of attitudes that tells us more about the analyst than BRI.
A last minute approval for the controversial Adani coal mine
has brought Australia-India relations into the campaign.
Former US president Bill Clinton famously called the Line of Control in Kashmir the ‘most dangerous place on earth’. Clinton was referring to the violent, recurring and uncompromising nature of the India–Pakistan conflict in Kashmir where the addition of nuclear weapons could have perilous consequences. But the recent Pulwama–Balakot crisis was characterised as much by a disinformation spectacle as military operations.
Author: Feroz Hassan Khan, Naval Postgraduate School
Regardless of who prevails at the ballot box on Wednesday,
big regional and global issues await to test the victor.
When tackling China over subsidies, countries might reflect
on which comparable industry support they might forgo.
Re-politicising policing in China
Author: Suzanne Scoggins, Clark University
Huawei’s threat to democratisation in Africa
Author: Emeka Umejei, American University of Nigeria
With polls showing incumbent Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko heading for a major defeat in the runoff election, governors and ministers are looking for contacts with the likely winner and his team. The president has fired a series of governors to send a warning to the rest. But the message is too late and not convincing.
A low-cost shift to clean energy is now feasible for every region of the world, owing to the plummeting costs of solar and wind power, and breakthroughs in energy storage. The total system costs of renewable energy, including transmission and storage, are now roughly on par with fossil fuels.
Jeffrey D. Sachs, Professor of Sustainable Development and Professor of Health Policy and Management at Columbia University, is Director of Columbia’s Center for Sustainable Development and of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network. His books include The End of Poverty, Common Wealth, The Age of Sustainable Development, Building the New American Economy, and most recently, A New Foreign Policy: Beyond American Exceptionalism.
As the Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service (CTS) launched an operation to target the Islamic State in the Hamrin mountain range in Iraq on the 11 April 2019, it is pertinent to examine the importance of the Iraqi state’s involvement in governance and sustainable security in such isolated spaces.
Dr Dylan O’Driscoll
This report provides policy recommendations to European Union (EU) policy makers with regard to the EU’s engagement in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. It draws on the inputs and insights gathered during three years of research conducted by the MENARA Project. It argues that designing a new flexible roadmap to advance mutual engagement and cooperation between the EU and the MENA is a key priority and an opportunity that should not be missed. This endeavour should take into account global and regional geopolitical shifts.
Author:Silvia Colombo, Marc Otte, Eduard Soler i Lecha and Nathalie Tocci
Towards a typology of domestic land-based investors
Esbern Friis-Hansen, Rasmus Hundsbæk Pedersen & Justin Edward Lusasi
Turkey’s growing defence industry is making significant progress in the export arena. However, the industry still faces a number of challenges, write Yvonni-Stefania Efstathiou and Tom Waldwyn.
The special adviser to South Korean President Moon Jae-in discusses the prospects for lasting peace on the peninsula.
Most commentators have focused on Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s personal qualities to explain what looked to many to be an unlikely election victory. But there are important structural reasons for Likud’s durability in power, and a strong economy is just the start.
Shlomo Avineri, Professor of Political Science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and a member of the Israel Academy of Sciences and Humanities, served as Director-General of Israel’s foreign ministry under Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. He is the author of, among others, Theodor Herzl and the Foundation of the Jewish State,and his most recent book, Karl Marx: Philosophy and Revolution, will be published this year by Yale University Press.
The recent visit of Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi to Iran was the latest in a series of high-level diplomatic exchanges between Tehran and Baghdad. The bilateral relationship, which has gone from adversarial to friendly as a result of the 2003 US overthrow of the Saddam-era regime, appears to be going from strength to strength. But with the threat of ISIS receding, Iraq may increasingly emerge as a battleground for influence between Iran and the US.
Naysan Rafati, Ali Vaez
There is growing interest in a comprehensive NATO response to China, first proposed by Stoltenberg at the Munich Security Conference in January, and reaffirmed in Washington by US and German officials. Such a response would correspond to the nascent trend towards bifurcation resulting from the US containment strategy. The United States and the EU have cooperated in the WTO against China and they continue to uphold their arms embargo. However, German business maintains a massive, if tenuous, presence in China. Europe is far more vulnerable to a trade war with China than the United States.
Alan W. Cafruny
The recent Indo-Russian conference organized by Valdai Club and Observer Foundation clearly revealed that in general there is a clear consensus on sanction challenges that cooperation between two countries faces nowadays, how sanction pressure has evolved since 2014 and which measures could be implemented to counteract it. An open question where consensus is clearly needed – what we expect in a mid-term regarding sanctions and trade wars.
“Bibi” Netanyahu will most probably head the next Israeli government. In an election that some expected to end with the public passing judgment on Netanyahu, the centre-left bloc parties were ultimately unable to obtain the 61 seats they would have needed in the next Knesset to prevent him from forming a coalition. The negotiations, however, that he will have to conduct with his potential partners will be tough. These partners have lost seats to Netanyahu’s party, the Likud, giving it the most seats it has had since Netanyahu took the helm. This is despite the legal Sword of Damocles hanging above his head for alleged personal criminal offenses. Even though they have fewer seats, Netanyahu needs the smaller parties on the right, and they will personally demand key ministries and the adoption of certain policies in the next government.
This briefing considers heightened tensions in the region and the Trump administration’s more forceful China Policy in the context of recent developments within Taiwan’s domestic politics, the current status of its relationship with the US and China, and its efforts to increase its presence in the international community.
Professor Kerry Brown
A new global framework for financing sustainable development was established in 2015. Every country on earth signed up to the Global Goals, having recognized the critical importance of attracting private capital to finance those goals under the Addis Ababa Action Agenda.
Gavin E.R. Wilson – Co-Chair, Global Future Council on Development Finance
President Tshisekedi discusses the recent elections in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the future of the country in the region.
Sheila A. Smith discusses her new book, Japan Rearmed: The Politics of Military Power. Japan’s United States-imposed postwar constitution renounced the use of offensive military force, but as Smith shows, a nuclear North Korea and an increasingly assertive China have the Japanese rethinking that commitment—and their reliance on U.S. security.
The extradition process enables governments to bring fugitives abroad to justice, but it can be fraught with political tension, even when a treaty is in place.
More than a million Muslims have been arbitrarily detained in China’s Xinjiang Province. The reeducation camps are just one part of the government’s crackdown on Uighurs.
The ‘Two Degrees of Transformation’ report was developed in collaboration with the Alliance of CEO Climate Leaders – a leadership community supported by the World Economic Forum’s Shaping the Future of Environment and Natural Resource Security System Initiative. The run-up to 2020 is a crucial period for delivering progress in line with science if the world is to avoid the worst effects of climate change. Climate change will shape the way in which we do business for decades. Business has a vital role to play in curbing its effects by limiting carbon emissions, but success isn’t just about action from individual companies. Business, sectors, states and regions need to consolidate efforts to create change on a level large enough to halt the crisis. The report reveals what is already happening, bringing together examples from CEOs, companies and sectors from around the world, of smart working, new thinking and innovation. It highlights examples that others can follow, and that will make transformation happen faster than ever before.
The Trump administration’s decision to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist entity will ultimately be judged by how successful it is in changing Iran’s conduct.
By Yaakov Lappin
The US designation of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization, and the Iranian response, has potentially put US military personnel in the region in harm’s way. The designation increases economic pressure on Iran because the IRGC is not only an army but also a commercial conglomerate – but it remains to be seen to what degree the sanctions will affect the IRGC.
By Dr. James M. Dorsey
China’s grand Belt and Road Initiative, which is intended to connect the Asia-Pacific with the European market, had a major boost in March when Italy – the first of the G7 states – effectively signed onto the project. This event illustrates how difficult it is becoming for European countries to resist Chinese investment at a time of economic troubles in the EU.
By Emil Avdaliani
Given the failures to foresee the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent weak recovery, it is easy to think that economists have little to offer in the way of predictions. But when it comes to national-level GDP growth, past projections have largely been borne out; even when wrong, they can be used to diagnose structural problems.
Jim O’Neill, a former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and a former UK Treasury Minister, is Chairman of Chatham House.
Around the world, the use of landmines continues to ensure that war-torn countries will have a long road to peace and reconstruction. Recent research indicates that the international community urgently needs to step up its efforts to clear existing minefields in a more targeted and coordinated fashion.
Giorgio Chiovelli is a Research Fellow at the London Business School.
Stelios Michalopoulos is Associate Professor of Economics at Brown University.
Elias Papaioannou is Professor of Economics and Academic Director of the Wheeler Institute of Business and Development at the London Business School.
The World Bank does a lot of important and effective work, especially in health and education, but its climate policies are poorly considered. The Bank’s new president, David Malpass, should refocus the institution on its core mission of eradicating poverty – including the energy poverty that wrecks so many lives.
Bjørn Lomborg, a visiting professor at the Copenhagen Business School, is Director of the Copenhagen Consensus Center. His books include The Skeptical Environmentalist, Cool It, How to Spend $75 Billion to Make the World a Better Place, The Nobel Laureates’ Guide to the Smartest Targets for the World, and, most recently, Prioritizing Development. In 2004, he was named one of Time magazine’s 100 most influential people for his research on the smartest ways to help the world.
Every industrial revolution has driven a wave of globalization. The first wave was driven by innovations such as the steam engine and the industrial weaving machine; the second by the assembly line, the car and the plane; and the third by the digital revolution.
The leaders of the international community will gather in Washington DC this week to assess the state of global development. High on their list will be catalysing greater investment in global infrastructure – unsurprising given that infrastructure can be an enormous economic multiplier, providing dividends for an economy long after the initial project is finished.
After another election dominated by disinformation and smears against Israeli Arabs, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has secured a fourth consecutive term. The outcome is an indictment of Israeli democracy, and particularly of the Israeli left and center, which responded to Netanyahu’s open racism with pablum and platitudes.
Shlomo Ben-Ami, a former Israeli foreign minister, is Vice President of the Toledo International Center for Peace. He is the author of Scars of War, Wounds of Peace: The Israeli-Arab Tragedy.
With sustained economic growth, Argentina would be able to avoid another debt crisis. Although there are no silver bullets to put the economy on a more stable path, changing current macroeconomic policies would at least give the country a chance.
Martin Guzman, a research associate at Columbia University Business School and an associate professor at the University of Buenos Aires, is a co-chair of the Columbia Initiative for Policy Dialogue Taskforce on Debt Restructuring and Sovereign Bankruptcy and a senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI).
The World Bank is vital to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, which would transform the lives of millions. That is why it is so important that the Bank’s incoming president strengthens its commitment to equity and avoids a narrow focus on economic growth.
Kevin Watkins is the CEO of Save the Children UK.
The US Federal Reserve’s pause on further monetary-policy tightening has fueled a revival of capital inflows. But, given the uncertainties about US policy and Chinese growth prospects, it is too early to conclude that emerging economies are out of the woods.
Barry Eichengreen is Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a former senior policy adviser at the International Monetary Fund. His latest book is The Populist Temptation: Economic Grievance and Political Reaction in the Modern Era.
The prospective EastMed pipeline would be the flagship project of the Cypriot-Greek-Israeli collaboration, a developing friendship that enjoys deep foundations. The US has now made its support for that partnership official.
By Dr. George N. Tzogopoulos
Distributed ledger and blockchain technology promise to have far-reaching implications for global trade and supply chains. However, the extent to which this new technology realizes its potential depends upon how well supply chain actors steward this development. To that end, the World Economic Forum has convened a multi-stakeholder community to design a framework to guide decision-making towards inclusivity, interoperability, and integrity. This highlights the most pressing concerns of a wide group of supply-chain decision-makers with blockchain deployment. It is the starting point for a series of white papers and the framework.
Algeria’s economy is growing far too slowly to provide enough jobs for a young, expanding, and increasingly restless population. The country’s authorities need to boost competition, spur the creation of a digital economy, and revamp state-owned enterprises.
Rabah Arezki is the Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa Region at the World Bank.
The fact that eurozone inflation is closer to 1% than 2% is not ideal, but the European Central Bank should not be overly concerned. The ECB does not need to pull out all the stops and invent ever more instruments in the forlorn hope of increasing inflation by a few tenths of a percentage point.
Daniel Gros is Director of the Center for European Policy Studies.
Abhas K. Jha is Practice Manager, Urban Development and Disaster Risk Management (East Asia and the Pacific) for the World Bank.
Humanity is increasingly caught up in the maelstrom of new conflicts. Disorder in the world is growing. A great war can no longer be ruled out. The global conflicts have nothing to do with territorial claims or conquest, as in earlier centuries. No state today seeks territorial expansion, not even Russia, which laments the collapse of the Soviet Union; the events in Crimea in 2014 were a response to NATO’s eastward enlargement. Nor are we dealing with conflicting political systems or different state ideologies, as was the case with the Cold War in the 20th century. Basically, no one questions universal economic globalisation. On the other hand, the current world conflict concerns what states have always argued about: world domination. The opponents would deny that, of course, but it remains a fact. But here, too, it is less about conquering countries and nations than about the global rules of the game called ”multilateralism’ and the moral sovereignty of ‘progressive’ states over ‘non-progressive’ ones.
The 20th anniversary of the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia passed almost unnoticed in the West. The elites and general public there do not understand that Yugoslavia’s tragedy has become a major formative experience for Russia’s relations with the West. NATO’s intervention in Yugoslavia was a turning point that ushered in a period of conflict in relations between Russia and the West.
As Parliament attempts to break the deadlock over Britain’s departure from the European Union, the political and economic future of the region hangs in the balance. During this conversation, panelists discuss how the turmoil surrounding Brexit will impact stability in Europe and the future of U.S. relations with both the European Union and the United Kingdom.
Adjunct Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations; @heidirediker
British Ambassador to the United States
Robert Bosch Senior Fellow, Center on the United States and Europe, Brookings Institution
Visiting Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations; @jimgoldgeier
Panelists examine China’s role in the world, its ongoing trade conflict with the United States, and President Xi Jinping’s political and economic agendas.
Bonnie S. Glaser
Senior Adviser for Asia and Director, China Power Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Sherman E. Katz
Senior Fellow, Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress
Senior Fellow and Director for Chinese Strategy, Hudson Institute
James H. Mann
Author in Residence, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Senator Chris Murphy discusses the ongoing Brexit negotiations and their implications for U.S. policy toward the United Kingdom and the European Union.
Christopher S. Murphy
U.S. Senator from Connecticut (D); Member, Senate Committee on Foreign Relations
Drawing on his experience as an American diplomat, William Burns provides insights into his profession and makes the case for American diplomacy in an increasingly volatile world.
Author, academic and former Obama administration ‘regulatory czar’, Cass Sunstein, explores how change happens.
Charles Dick examines the reform and modernization of Russia’s military and argues that the new force structure enables high readiness for short warning, possibly complex conflicts in former Soviet and satellite countries.
Marie Le Conte on the clash of political styles that has stymied Brexit negotiations
After Italy signed up to the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China-EU relations are once again under the global spotlight. Meanwhile, China’s rise is believed to be worrying Europe. Which way will EU-China relations go? What do Europe and European enterprises expect from China? How will China’s rise affect European integration? Before the upcoming EU-China summit scheduled for April 9, Daniel Gros (Gros), director at the Brussels-based Centre for European Policy Studies, shared his views on these issues with Global Times (GT) reporter Xu Hailin.
The Middle East and North Africa Risks Landscape briefing paper comes at a time when technological and geopolitical forces are reshaping regional landscapes. The technological breakthroughs of the Fourth Industrial Revolution are bringing opportunity but also risk for those unprepared to adapt. At the same time, fractures between global stakeholders—including geo-economic tension—are adding another layer of risk for the region.
Central banks from dozens of countries around the world are actively researching how blockchain and distributed ledger technology can be applied to solve long-standing challenges. However, their activities are not always well known or communicated. The purpose of this paper is to introduce and highlight the key issues and areas of research, experimentation and implementation for central banks with respect to blockchain technology. It also provides an overview of key literature in this area. Importantly, DLT is an active area of research and exploration, and many central banks have not yet reached definitive conclusions regarding the opportunities it provides when considering risks.
Globalization 4.0 is at hand. A new phase of globalization driven by shifts in technology, geopolitics, and social and environmental needs, it will require concerted governance from multiple levels – corporate, national and international. This white paper represents the World Economic Forum’s call for engagement from stakeholders across globe and across societal and enterprise domains. In order to meet the challenges of Globalization 4.0, global actors must begin and sustain a dialogue that leads to a strengthening of global governance architecture, the multilateral system that has benefited the world and drives new cooperative arrangements for a demanding future.
This report offers a “map” of the diverse situations of women in the post-2011 MENA region. It shows that there have been tremendous achievements and improvements in the lives of women in health and education but less progress in employment; and that legal inequalities remain widespread, as do limitations on women’s participation in politics and civil society. The report analyses the impact of recent events, particularly the conflicts, but also the political opportunities that came about as a result of the 2011 Arab uprisings. It also touches on the situation of LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender) individuals, and specifically their mobilization and changing attitudes towards their rights. The report ends by focusing on Western gender policy in the region. It argues for an approach that balances the ethical demands of individual and collective rights, and for a liberal position that respects and supports women’s and LGBT rights without being overly prescriptive about the values and choices that should govern the lives of individuals.
Author:Katerina Dalacoura, Associate Professor in International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science
In the debate on euro area fiscal governance, the current deficit rules of the EU have repeatedly been criticised to have a pro-cyclical effect, leading to overly lax fiscal policies in good times and a too restrictive regime in bad times. An analysis by EconPol researchers Clemens Fuest and Daniel Gros shows that most major EU countries are over-spending at a level not compatible with spending rules for sustainable public finances.