£350 million a week: The output cost of the Brexit vote

It is hard to calculate the current cost of Brexit, because there is no obvious counterfactual. The original version of this column, first published in November 2017, calculated the cost by letting a matching algorithm determine which combination of comparison economies best resembles the pre-referendum growth path of the UK economy. The results suggested a loss of 1.3% of GDP, or close to £300 million per week, since the vote took place. Subsequent updates using the latest OECD data suggest that the negative drag from the Brexit vote now appears to be roughly £350 million a week, but under current OECD forecasts we can expect the output loss to increase to about 4% of GDP by end-2020.

https://voxeu.org/article/300-million-week-output-cost-brexit-vote

Benjamin Born, Gernot Müller, Moritz Schularick, Petr Sedláček

VOX

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