Policy uncertainty is believed to affect foreign direct investment significantly, but, empirical evidence on the impact is scarce. This column proposes a unique empirical strategy for identifying the impact of a change in policy uncertainty on FDI at the sector level by utilising information about reservations of certain obligations contained in international investment agreements. It provides evidence that policy uncertainty discourages FDI. Policy uncertainty will continue to rise in the post-COVID-19 era, and the results highlight the importance of aligning globalisation with the mitigation of public health threats by implementing policies to reduce uncertainty.
Mitsuo Inada, Naoto Jinji