DSA applies to crisis countries only, but an early warning system identifying vulnerabilities is relevant for all countries. A more general, less stringent, debt vulnerabilities analysis (DVA) could be used to assess countries’ debt management policies and identify vulnerabilities, without leading immediately to policy consequences. A more general framework could also incorporate political risks that are significant determinants of debt dynamics
Cecilia Malmström, European Commissioner for Trade, talks on the truths of EU trade at the Bruegel Annual Meetings 2019.
In time, the current spat between French President Emmanuel Macron and his Brazilian counterpart Jair Bolsonaro regarding the Amazon rainforest may become a mere footnote. But other rows between collective and national interests are sure to erupt, and the world needs to find a way to manage them.
L’économiste regrette, dans sa chronique au “Monde”, que les tensions internes au gouvernement aient conduit à s’écarter de la stricte logique d’un système par points.
This collected volume, edited by Maria Demertzis and Guntram Wolff, focusing on the most important economic questions at EU level. The memos covering 16 different files and written by 21 Bruegel scholars, are intended to present the strategic to-do list based on an assessment of the state of affairs and the challenges that will greet the new Commissioners.
Recession! This is the new worry in Europe and the US. A simple look at google trends shows that in Germany, France and the US, search interest for recession peaked in the last weeks. In Italy, the peak already occurred end of January. Whether a recession is actually occurring is difficult to gauge in real time. But there can be no doubt that significant risks such as the trade war and no-deal Brexit exist.
BY: GUNTRAM B. WOLFF
Ursula von der Leyen plans to introduce a border carbon tax to avoid that cutting EU carbon emissions forces EU companies to move their activities abroad. But will this tax trigger a conflict between climate preservation and the multilateral trading system, or can trade and climate preservation coexist?
The seemingly omnipotent G7, the meeting of the seven largest developed economies in the world, is weakening continuously and, as the author suggests, this should worry us all.
Since the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) allowed the yuan to surpass the dreaded level of 7 to the dollar on August 11, rivers of ink have flowed citing a new matter of contention between the U.S. and China, namely using currencies to gain competitiveness or, more simply, a “currency war.”