A Chinese-Russian Regional Program Ends With a Whimper (Carnegie Moscow Center)

The failure of the Program of Cooperation (2009–2018) cannot be blamed entirely on the inertia of Russian bureaucrats or the paucity of local budgets. The program was underdeveloped from the start.

https://carnegie.ru/commentary/77341

Ivan Zuenko

Resolving Ukraine’s Orthodox Church Crisis (Carnegie Moscow Center)

Ukraine already has the autonomous Moscow Patriarchate Church. Soon, the country might also have an autonomous Constantinople Patriarchate Church. The Moscow patriarch has threatened to sever ties with Constantinople if the Ukrainian Orthodox Church becomes autocephalous, or fully independent from another country’s patriarch. This probably won’t happen if the church only becomes autonomous, stopping one step short of autocephaly.

https://carnegie.ru/commentary/77329

Alexander  Zanemonets

The Specter of Revolution: Moldova’s Future Hangs On Protests (Andrey Devyatkov, Carnegie Moscow Center)

The decision to annul the opposition’s victory in Chi?inau’s mayoral election is among the most confrontational taken by Moldova’s self-avowedly pro-European authorities. But the convergence of internal and external factors that the anti-government protests need to succeed has not yet occurred. The defeat of anti-government forces shortly before decisive parliamentary elections will leave Moldovan society even more apathetic.

https://carnegie.ru/commentary/76741

Despite the Helsinki Summit, the Hybrid War Is Here to Stay (Dmitri Trenin, Carnegie Moscow Center)

Since 2014, Russia and the US have been engaged in a hybrid war, characterized by conflict in financial, technological, and ideological spheres. Regardless of the results of the summit, this hybrid war is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. However, the relationship can and must be stabilized through clear understanding by both parties of the other side’s behavior and motivations

https://carnegie.ru/commentary/76733

Illusory Stability: Putin’s Regime Is Readier Than Ever for Change (Tatyana Stanovaya, Carnegie Moscow Center)

The events of the last four years in Russia show that its fabled stability and lack of change have stopped being the top political value. Today, the Russian regime is more ready than ever for transformation. Before, any decisions had to be approved by the president and were made at a snail’s pace because Putin had no time. Now, it’s the other way around: decisions are made quickly precisely because Putin has no time.

https://carnegie.ru/commentary/76729

Putin and Yumashev: Survivors of the Nineties (Gleb Pavlovsky, Carnegie Moscow Center)

Vladimir Putin learned the art of political survival in the Kremlin of the 1990s. Little wonder that he has decided to keep on his former co-conspirator from that era, Valentin Yumashev.

https://carnegie.ru/commentary/76716

Easing Tensions in the Western Balkans by Carnegie Moscow Center

Even under the best of circumstances, the relationship in the Balkans between Russia, on the one hand, and the EU and the United States, on the other, is bound to be contentious. However, decisionmakers on both sides can craft policies to dial tensions down and pursue common interests where they do exist.

http://carnegie.ru/commentary/75427

Dimitar Bechev is a Research Fellow at the Center for Slavic, Eurasian and East European Studies, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, author of Rival Power: Russia in Southeast Europe (Yale, 2017)

 

The Confrontation Between the West and Russia: A Tale of Concentric Circles by Carnegie Moscow Center

Much like Europeans do not fully grasp the angst generated by prospects of Western-incited regime change in Russia, Russians dismiss far too easily how toxic in the EU is Moscow’s political and financial backing of European extreme right-wing movements. Both are viewed as direct threats to existential interests. So long as that deep-seated mistrust regarding each other’s destructive intent toward one another prevails, channels for cooperation will remain limited, and cooperation at the global level will be ad hoc and transactional.

http://carnegie.ru/commentary/75482

Nathalie Tocci is Director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali, Honorary Professor at the University of Tübingen, and Special Adviser to EU HRVP Federica Mogherini, on behalf of whom she wrote the European Global Strategy and is now working on its implementation, notably in the field of security and defence. Previously she held research positions at the Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels, the Transatlantic Academy, Washington and the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, Florence. Her research interests include European foreign policy, conflict resolution, the Middle East and the Mediterranean.