The arrival of summer in the Northern Hemisphere has brought a flurry of speculation that warmer and wetter weather will hold down the COVID-19 infection rate. But even if the hoped-for relationship between transmission and warm weather is valid, it may not be causal or straightforward, especially given seasonal behavior.
Michael Ferrari is Managing Partner at Atlas Research Innovations and a senior fellow at the Wharton School – Parag Khanna is Managing Partner and Founder of FutureMap, a data- and scenario-based strategic advisory firm, and the author of numerous books, including Connectography, Technocracy in America, and The Future is Asian – Spencer Wells is Founder of the National Geographic Genographic Project and author of The Journey of Man and Deep Ancestry
Increasingly egregious attacks on democratic institutions and processes in the United States have a common denominator: bad faith. When those in charge of safeguarding the system turn out to represent the greatest threat to it, sustained protest becomes citizens’ last recourse.
Richard K. Sherwin is Professor of Law and Director of the Visual Persuasion Project at New York Law School. He is the co-editor (with Danielle Celermajer) of A Cultural History of Law in the Modern Age (Bloomsbury, 2019).
By enabling people and businesses to remain connected while under lockdown, the Internet has helped to prevent the global economy from collapsing entirely. And yet the engineer-led nonprofit organizations that oversee the stable functioning of the global Internet are again under attack.
Fadi Chehadé, a former president and CEO of ICANN (2012-2016), is a member of the UN Secretary-General’s High-Level Panel on Digital Cooperation and an advisory board member of the World Economic Forum’s Center for the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
The worse economic fundamentals and forecasts become, the more mysterious stock-market outcomes in the US appear. At a time when genuine news suggests that equity prices should be tanking, not hitting record highs, explanations based on crowd psychology, the virality of ideas, and the dynamics of narrative epidemics can shed some light.
Robert J. Shiller, a 2013 Nobel laureate in economics, is Professor of Economics at Yale University and the co-creator of the Case-Shiller Index of US house prices. He is the author of Irrational Exuberance, Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception (with George Akerlof), and Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events.
During the first waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Asia and Western advanced economies, there was a clear pattern of lockdown, containment, and gradual economic reopening. But now a third pandemic wave has brought a new, more disturbing pattern to both developing countries and major US states
Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate in economics, is Professor of Economics Emeritus and a former dean of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University. He is Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, serves on the Academic Committee at Luohan Academy, and co-chairs the Advisory Board of the Asia Global Institute. He was chairman of the independent Commission on Growth and Development, an international body that from 2006-10 analyzed opportunities for global economic growth, and is the author of The Next Convergence: The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World – Chen Long, a former chief strategy officer at Ant Financial, is Director of Luohan Academy, Executive Provost of the Hupan School of Entrepreneurship, Chairman of Alibaba’s Research Council, and a member of the International Monetary Fund’s FinTech Advisory Group
Beyond a public-health crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic is an economic and humanitarian crisis – one that is exposing and widening our societies’ fault lines. Though addressing systemic inequities is extremely difficult, there are reasons to hope that the pandemic will spur progress toward greater social justice
Koichi Hamada is Professor Emeritus at Yale University and a special adviser to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe
After four years of a president who has deliberately tried to divide Americans, the United States can and must find common purpose to address its many challenges. Assuming voters have had enough of Donald Trump, the next US president can take several early steps to achieve this goal
Larry Hatheway, former Chief Economist at UBS and GAM Investments, is a co-founder of Jackson Hole Economics – Alexander Friedman, a co-founder of Jackson Hole Economics, is a former CEO of GAM Investments, Chief Investment Officer of UBS, Chief Financial Officer of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and White House Fellow
Though US policymakers took bold early action to prop up the economy during the COVID-19 crisis, the International Monetary Fund now expects America’s GDP to contract by 8% in 2020. If the US government does not pursue a comprehensive recovery program, the outlook will become even worse
Laura Tyson, former chair of the US President’s Council of Economic Advisers, is Distinguished Professor of the Graduate School at the Berkeley Haas School of Business and Chair of the Blum Center Board of Trustees at UC Berkeley – Lenny Mendonca, Senior Partner Emeritus at McKinsey & Company, is a former chief economic and business advisor to Governor Gavin Newsom of California and chair of the California High-Speed Rail Authority
Like the Soviet Union in its final years, the United States is reeling from catastrophic failures of leadership and long-suppressed socioeconomic tensions that have finally boiled over. For the rest of the world, the most important development is that the hegemony of the US dollar may finally be coming to an end
Harold James is Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University and a senior fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation. A specialist on German economic history and on globalization, he is a co-author of The Euro and The Battle of Ideas, and the author of The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization Cycle, Krupp: A History of the Legendary German Firm, and Making the European Monetary Union
With hopes of a sharp rebound from the pandemic-induced recession quickly fading, policymakers should pause and take stock of what it will take to achieve a sustained recovery. The most urgent policy priorities have been obvious since the beginning, but they will require hard choices and a show of political will
Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics and University Professor at Columbia University, is Chief Economist at the Roosevelt Institute and a former senior vice president and chief economist of the World Bank. His most recent book is People, Power, and Profits: Progressive Capitalism for an Age of Discontent