Real wages and productivity in the UK have stagnated since 2007, whereas employment has risen considerably. Many commentators lament the consequent failure of `living standards’ to rise at historical rates. But real GDP per capita has grown by more than 20% since 2000 despite the Great Recession, so aggregate living standards have in fact risen. This column resolves the apparent paradox.
Jennifer Castle, David Hendry, Andrew Martinez
Real interest rates are at historically low levels in advanced economies. This column looks at the implications for central bank independence. It argues that low rates, even though they relax the budget constraint of the public sector, will not necessarily strengthen central bank independence. Quite counterintuitively, in the current context of low inflation, preserving central bank independence may require that the public deficit be financed with helicopter money, rather than government debt, to prevent the government from entering into uncontrollable spending.
Jean Barthélemy, Eric Mengus, Guillaume Plantin
For almost 200 years, old coins were frequently declared invalid in large part of medieval Europe and had to be exchanged for new ones for an exchange fee. This column shows that frequent recoinage generates incomes for the minting authority when the tax level is low enough and the punishment for using invalid coins is high enough, and when there is a limited coin volume in circulation and also an exchange monopoly. The system is equivalent to the 20th-century idea known as the Gesell tax.
Roger Svensson, Andreas Westermark
The new president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has announced a ‘European Green Deal’ and the Commission has asserted Europe’s need to develop a new growth model to achieve climate neutrality. However, the Commission’s limited view of ‘productivity’ ignores the fact that raising labour productivity can raise emissions and accelerate climate change. Instead, this column argues that a welfare-oriented Green Deal needs to focus on resource and energy productivity, not raising labour productivity.
Economic growth in Latin America has been persistently lower and more erratic than the emerging economies of Asia, largely due to low productivity borne out of both weak competition and a large informal economy. This column analyses the various factors that have caused these conditions to exist in several Latin American countries, and how policies to counteract them have fared. For significant progress, a detailed strategy of simplifying regulations, easing administrative burdens, encouraging market entry, and reducing trade barriers is required to formalise workers and encourage market competition.
Piritta Sorsa, Jens Arnold, Paula Garda
Economic history is a thriving subset of the field. This column uses network analysis to review the development of the discipline over the last 40 years. It illustrates how economic historians are interconnected through their research, identifies which scholars are the most cited by their peers, and reveals the central debates enlivening the discipline. It also shows that the rapid increase in the number of economic history publications since 2000 has been driven more by research at universities in continental European than by those in the US or UK.
Gregori Galofré Vilà
In December 2019, Marco Buti left the position of Director General for Economic and Financial Affairs at the European Commission at the end of a rough journey through the crisis and its aftermath. In this column, he draws the main lessons out of five key moments in the crisis for the completion of EMU and the appropriate policy mix in the euro area.
Free trade has contributed to a ‘great convergence’ of emerging market countries toward incomes in industrialised nations in recent decades. It is less clear whether free mobility of capital across national boundaries has conferred similar benefits. This column presents evidence suggesting that the gains in average incomes have been – at best – small, while increases in income inequality and the decline in the labour share of income have been significant. Financial globalisation thus poses far more difficult equity-efficiency trade-offs than free trade and should be at the centre of debates about how to make globalisation inclusive.
Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani, Jonathan D. Ostry
Financial institutions are increasingly outsourcing information technology to the cloud, motivated by efficiency, security, and cost. This column argues that the consequence is likely to be short- and medium-term stability at the cost of the increased likelihood of catastrophic systemic events. Cloud providers are systemically important and should be regulated as such.
Jon Danielsson, Robert Macrae